State Cross Country 2016- An Analysis of the Women's Race

The 2016 North Dakota high school cross country season came to a close back in October just north of Jamestown, with the state meet happening on a beautiful Saturday and with almost perfect running weather and course conditions. Briefly, the champions were:

Class A Boys:

Team- Bismarck Century

Individual- Hunter Lucas (Senior)- Fargo Davies

Class A Girls:

Team- Fargo Davies

Individual- Karly Ackely (Senior) - Grand Forks Central

Class B Boys:

Team- New Town

Individual- Jalen Chase (Junior)- New Town

Class B Girls:

Team- Hillsboro/Central Valley

Individual- Reagen Baesler (Freshman)- Hillsboro/Central Valley

The meet was held at the Parkhurst Recreation Area near the Pipestem Dam north of Jamestown. The whole course was pretty flat, with few sharp turns, and all grass. The first part of the course was through open prairie, the middle part was through a small patch of pines, and the last part was through the prairie again. For athletes, the course was fast and adequate. For spectators, it was awful; the organizers even told us that the pine forest was off-limits to coaches and spectators (scoff). The parking, team camp space, and porta-potties was inadequate, but the location was off the main road and quite peaceful. 

Now, for the analysis of the Girls' races. The A and B boys races are here.

In the B race, there were 47 teams and 223 runners. That comes out to an average of 4.7 runners per team, which when considering that 5 runners score, is very small. Additionally, every school in the state can bring 10 girls runners to state, and so that number is actually staggeringly low. 25 out of the 47 teams- or 53%- fielded a full five runners. Much like the Class B boys, it seems that a handful of programs provide a majority of the athletes. The top 10 teams in the race (or just over 20% of the teams) provided 36% of the athletes.

At the coaches meeting, the topic was brought up about the increasing in participation numbers. Here's a look at the changes over time in participation at the Class B Girls' Meet:

Year        Runners     Teams
2004       144              25
2005       146              27
2006       153              28
2007       150              29
2008       179              30
2009       177              35
2010       172              41
2011       198              38
2012       196              37
2013       209              37
2014       208              39
2015       234              45
2016       223              47
          

As we can see from this list and graph, there has over time been a steady increase in both teams and total runners at the State B girls' meet. One interesting thing that I noticed is when there is a year with a jump in the number of teams, there is usually a small decrease in state participants, which is mind-boggling to me. Is it possibly that when co-ops are broken up that less athletes feel connected to team and thus don't participate? I have no idea. What I do know is that, like the B Boys, numbers are increasing, and that's good for the sport. If the numbers keep increasing at this rate, then 5-10 years down the road some tough decisions will have to be made, but for now those are tabled.

There isn't as much of a way to look at state cross country to see Class A increases in participation. Most of the Class A teams are able to bring 10 runners to state, and do (and there hasn't really been an increase in Class A teams either). In order to get an accurate picture of participation changes, one would have to look at regular season meets, especially the conference meets. I'm not doing that right now. 

Next, I wanted to look at the difference between the Class A and Class B times. In North Dakota, comparing state times from year-to-year doesn't make any sense, because the meet bounces around. The previous five state meets have been in Grand Forks, Minot, Valley City, Dickinson, and Fargo. Combining that with the fact that the weather can be all over the place (it was snowing in Dickinson at state, but this year was in the 50s and sunny), and comparing years doesn't work. However, we can look at how divisions compare to each other every year. This next list compiles the average of the top ten times in the Class A and Class B races every year going back to 2003. Additionally, I looked at the percent difference between the times by taking their difference, dividing by the original, and multiplying by 100. I should note ahead of time that this was the first year that Varsity Girls ran a 5k in North Dakota. Before that, it was 4k.

Year        Class A             Class B             % Difference
2016       18:14.8              19:10.4                 5.1%
2015       14:42.2              15:04.6                 2.5%
2014       14:37.7              15:26.8                 5.6%
2013       14:48.7              15:30.3                 4.7%
2012       15:11.7              15:54.9                 4.7%
2011       14:39.8              15:25.9                 5.2%
2010       15:12.6              15:50.7                 4.2%
2009       15:06.0              15:41.3                 3.9%
2008       15:16.1              16:06.3                 5.5%
2007       14:57.1              15:32.3                 3.9%
2006       14:59.4              15:42.8                 4.8%
2005       15:54.1              16:11.6                 1.8%
2004       15:27.4              15:34.5                 0.8%
2003       15:12.2              15:21.8                 1.1%  (overall avg 3.8%)

Three things immediately stand out to me in regards to this table. This first is that the percent difference between A and B over time is remarkably stable. With a few exceptions, the differences hovers in the 4-5% area. The second thing that jumped out to me was the low overall avg compared to the boys. This means that the top ten girls tend to be closer on average than the top ten boys when comparing A and B. The third thing that stood out to me was how the Anderson family could literally shift the whole landscape in the early 2000s. The fast times that those sisters ran (sometimes faster than the fastest A times that year) helped pull up the average time and bring it closer to Class A, specifically in 2003-2005. As I said on the other post, I'd like to eventually take a look at which distance events in track follow similar patterns to this, and use these percents to examine if our state qualifying standards are fair, or if they favor one class or another; however, that's another post for another day.

Of course, there is a reason that A and B have the differences.  I've talked many times on here before about why the difference between A and B exists, but to summarize briefly:

1.) There are simply less kids in Class B. If, let's just say on average, 5 out of every 100 9th graders go on to run under 16:00 (4k) in high school, that simply means less kids in Class B than Class A that can do it.
2.) Due to the school location and sizes, less experienced coaches have the Class B programs. It's entirely possible that a small school will have a coach that ran briefly in high school, while a big school could have a coach with a successful college career under his or her belt.
3.) The training facilities are much different. Bigger cities have big grass parks, running trails, and much nicer tracks. Small schools have country gravel roads and in most cases crappy tracks.
4.) Bigger schools tend to have more money to spend on programs like cross country and track and field.
5.) The team sizes being bigger in Class A schools affords athletes more chances to have running partners and people to push them. When, for example with my program this last year, there are only a couple varsity athletes separated by quite a bit of time, most of their training is on their own.

Now, the last thing I'd like to do is the hypothetical state meet when the upperclass(wo)men are taken out. Where does the future go? Here's a look at the breakdown of the top 40 runners by grade:

Class A:
Seniors- 5
Juniors- 4
Sophomores- 6
Freshmen- 11
8th Grade- 12
7th Grade- 2

Class B:
Seniors- 7
Juniors- 4
Sophomores- 9
Freshmen- 11
8th Grade- 7
7th Grade- 2

So again, as I alluded to in the previous post, these races (especially the A girls) were very young. Notice how in the A race there were more 8th graders in the top 40 than seniors and juniors combined. That's insane. I understand that more 8th and 9th graders are successful in the women's races than the men's, but still- wow.

The final thing I want to discus (that's not a typo if you read letsrun.com) is the next two years hypothetically. The idea is that all the seniors are removed from this year's race, and then it is re-scored to represent what next year could roughly look like. After that, seniors and juniors are removed and then only four runners are scored (to account for upperclass-heavy teams) to simulate two years from now. It's not an exact science, but hey- can't we geek out about these things?

Here's the breakdown for Class B:
2016:                                                               No Seniors:                  No Seniors/Juniors (score 4):
1.) Hillsboro/Central Valley           133          1.)H/CV             103     1.) Rugby 83
2.) Bowman County                       151          2.) Rugby           118     2.) H/CV  89
3.) Rubgy                                       153          3.) BC                 196     3.) BC      105
4.) Hatton/Northwood/Thompson  204         4.) So. Mclean    262     4.) HNT   184
5.) Southern Mclean                       311          5.) Watford City 273     4.) Surrey 184

The first thing I took from this is that Rugby has a very strong, young team, and within a couple years could take over the reign from Hillsboro/Central Valley. The second is that the top three teams seem solid for the next few years, no doubt because it seems like many Class B programs either continually breed large participation numbers (and more success), or try to survive on a few top runners every few years. Hats off to the coaches who continually produce large teams year after year in such an undervalued sport in Class B.

Here's the breakdown for Class A:
2016:                                           No Seniors:                          No Seniors/Juniors (score 4):
1.) Fargo Davies             71        1.) Fargo Davies 54             1.) Fargo Davies 39
2.) Bismarck Century     95        2.) Bis High        94             2.) Bis High        43
3.) Grand Forks Central 97        3.) Bis Cen         116            3.) Bis Cen          67
4.) Bismarck High         115       4.) GFC              139           4.) GFC               116
5.) Minot                        178      5.) Minot            152            5.) Minot            118

I think it's safe to say that Fargo Davies has a pretty good hold on the state for at least a few more years, unless they lose athletes to injury or another school produces some talented runners (both of which are completely possible). Notice how the top five schools do not change at all, and the order of the top five does not change for the last two scenarios. This class was the youngest of any of the four races at the state meet, so it makes sense that taking out older runners doesn't affect the overall results all that much.

Sorry for getting this out so late! I've been pretty busy with student teaching and such this semester, but I hope you made it through all the jargon in this post and enjoyed it. Merry Christmas!

Identity

When I finished my run, my right arm and knee were both covered with blood, and my feet and legs were covered with mud. I staggered to a stop and noticed a neighbor across the street staring at me intently, trying to figure out who the new intruder was in her comfortable little Phoenix-area suburb. Sweat was pouring down my face- it was humid and had just rained. So much for the desert. I walked inside to the family eating the breakfast that had recently been prepared. My white shirt had blood and dirt on it. They ate eggs; I went to the shower. Merry 'Christmas Eve' Eve.

Ok, let me back up a second. Now that I'm in Arizona, I finally get a chance to sit down and take a breath from all the travel of the past week. Our flight came in around 1:30am Central time, after a flight of naps and reading Sherman Alexie (sorry if my tone seems more sarcastic in this post- I'd like to think I'm inspired). One week ago from today I graduated from college. Well, technically they gave me a paper telling me my degree would come in the mail in a few weeks, provided I finished all my classes, but let's not get caught up in semantics. I shook the hand of the school President I've never met, told him thank you when he congratulated me, and then I walked past a bunch of unfamiliar faces of parents, and sat down with a bunch of kids who were freshman when I started my junior year at UND. I could feel my heart slowly pounding through my neck as I sat there, watching grand marshals sitting up front with their doctoral robes and poofy hats reserved only for academic royalty. Each name called was followed by either a light applause or WOOOOOOO YEAH AAABBBBBYYYY YOU DID IT BABY GIRL I LOVE YOU WOOOOOOOOOO, all depending on how your family would choose to present themselves around thousands of other people. Every time we needed to stand up in order to hear a song we weren't familiar with or listen to an enthusiastic speech from someone we've never met, I got light-headed because I ran an hour this morning and couldn't bring a water bottle in with me.

Oh yeah, I woke at 6 and ran this morning. It was all gravel and cold, with a hint of stars overhead. I only came across one man out working- he was wearing Carhart and I was wearing Asics, so it was a tradeoff. I did my usual winter running style where I run into the wind until right before I feel frostbite coming on, and then I turn around and enjoy the wind at my back for the other half. I get back whenever ice has sufficiently covered my entire face, and after joining with Ingrid to send her niece off to the morning bus, I collapse back for a long nap. People say you can sleep when you're dead, but you can do it when you're alive too. Well, I slept so hard that the line between the two was as fuzzy as my head when I woke up. Can we agree that I was only a little late for graduation because the train held us up in Grand Forks?

After visiting my "new home"*, it was off to Fargo for graduation dinner and a short Christmas with my family. Fortunately, the Bison were playing so the interstate was packed, while the eateries were quiet. The long table next to ours at Johnny Carino's was another UND grad, so Fargo benefited wholly from UND's graduation. After the ritual of complaining about the cold and commenting on the music and atmosphere of the restaurant, we got down to eating, opening some presents, and calling it a night. Next day was off to northern Minnesota for Christmas with Ingrid's fam.

After driving more hours into the north woods, burning fossil fuels while discussing renewable energy, we were able to calm down for a day. This gave me a chance to explore the new area. We were tucked into the little lake outside of Grand Rapids, near the Mesabi trail. I decided to check it out, only to realize that it was completely covered in snow. Check. Next I went around the outskirts of town to find small highways or gravel roads to run on, but the only roads in and out of town were the main highways with no sidewalks. Check. Next I...aw screw it; it's -6F and getting colder with this front pushing through and my knee is sore. I headed back to warmth, food, Sherman Alexie, and Settlers of Catan (it's more of an addiction than a lifestyle, to be sure). The next day included a 7 hour drive home, a day off from running, and a pretty sweet cross-section of the northern United States and it's daunting picture of job loss in small towns, job creation in big towns, and light pollution to block our imagination the stars. It gets pretty dark in the winter without light.

The next day brought another 7 hour drive, this one to north central Montana to visit some friends with my days off after 'graduating'. The morning started off with a small excursion on the skis, which has been more and more fun over time, even though I still don't have good form and my knee is getting sore as a result. We have so much snow right now in the central and northwestern North Dakota, and more is promised soon. For the winter outdoor enthusiast, it's heaven. For the other 87% of the population, not so much. I'm with the former. I fly down the trails that I've worked to make, scaring up deer that have to bumble through the deep snow. I always wonder what it would be like to chase them. I hear Ingrid come down the road and speed back so we can get on the road. We do, and we fly through North Dakota; slow down around Williston because of snow and the exhaustive fun of being a little car in a trashed, destroyed, oil-boom landscape where money trumps everything; and then fly through Montana, slowing down occasionally for the drivers with the gall to only drive 5 mph over the speed limit. All said, we go through 3 different Indian Reservations and end the night by playing Settlers of Catan in Havre.

The penultimate day of our trip brought us down to Great Falls, Montana to visit a friend, before coming back up to Havre (pronouned HAVE-UR, not HAAV-RAY) for another night of S.O.C. Finally, I was able to lace up the New Balance Trail Minimus for another day of running, borrowing Ingrid's friend's fitbit because I didn't bring my GPS watch and my regular watch died on me (so young). Exploring the town showed Great Falls to be incredibly...average. There were little parks here and there with grass enough to wish that I could run on it, but even though it was 46F and melting, there was enough snow to convince me otherwise. The usual restaurants painted main street- Subway, DQ, McDonalds, etc...I was trying find my way down to the Missouri River, which goes through town and produces some cool small gorges on each side. The Missouri starts in the Rockies and meanders all the way through Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and all the way to St. Louis, before forming an alliance with the Mississippi and working together to get to the Atlantic. The roads that follow the Missouri are usually called the 'Lewis and Clark Trail', because driving a vehicle with a 6L engine across the prairie near the river (containing multiple dams and resulting lakes) is somehow similar to dragging a dredgeboat up against the current for months, taking wildlife along the river and trading alcohol (illegally) with the Natives. Oh well, the drive into Montana was our little expedition- we just weren't reporting to the President.

Great Falls has mountains in the distance, and as I ran towards the edge of town, I wanted to run to them, run up them, and let them call me in. I wanted to go west to Glacier NP and disappear into the vast wilderness, away from the tourists that congregate in the valleys. Instead, I saved my knee and headed back to the house and ate a banana and played with a cute little dog instead. To each their own; I am who I am- a man with flaws. Ingrid and I headed back up to Havre, spent the night, and drove the 7 hour drive back to North Dakota the next day. When we got back, we could have sat down and relaxed; we could have unpacked and cleaned up our messes; we could have watched a movie together after a week of driving, visiting, and hurrying; but no, we went for a run. The stars here were beautiful, the galaxies streaking overhead and the western sky twinkling as we kept moving. It's here on the run that we remember all of our memories together- how our relationship was built on that sacred time. For the time being, out on a country road in the middle of nowhere North Dakota, we can be who we want to be- we can be silly, funny, bouncy, dumb, angry, sad, happy, hungry, extravagant, still hungry, or tired. Odds are, most days we fit most of those qualifiers. Odds are, we're ok with it. The time we can spend together after long days of travel is crucial, if not necessary. The pizza can wait, the presents can wait, the Netflix can wait- for now, the sound of our shoes scratching on gravel and the stars above head is all that matters. We hold hands.

As I scrape mud off of my bare feet, I look at the palm trees around me. After another four hour drive across North Dakota, a flight to Denver, and a flight to Phoenix, I am here to stay for a few days. I can't help but think back to yesterday morning, when I got a morning run in as the glow of morning hit the horizon. The colors of the sky started deep red, blended into a bright orange, and morphed into a sleepy blue. The last of the stars shone next to the half moon, and the only sound was the wind. The snow didn't stir, and the open lake still lazily floated east. Those will stay as some of my favorite memories. Now, after a warm, humid run, I look at my body. I was running barefoot on compacted dirt next to a asphalt path next to a canal, and my feet were quite dirty as a result of some of the mud. I relished the opportunity to run barefoot again, and so once I got back to the cement of the town, I kept my shoes in my hands. I was enjoying running barefoot so much that I didn't pay attention to a large metal sign standing by the sidewalk. I moved to the side briefly to avoid it, but it wasn't enough, and I smoked it with my right elbow as I pumped my arm forward. The pain didn't seem like much, and I was really self-conscious about running barefoot on a sidewalk in an unfamiliar place, so I didn't think much of it. When I arrived at the house, I noticed blood running down my arm to my hand, blood on knee, and mud on my calf and feet. I paused for a second- this is who I am. And ya know what? I wouldn't have it any other way.


*Direct quote from the CEO of the UND Alumni Association referring to the new Alumni Center on Campus, where they encouraged us to come get snacks and we were treated with sugar cookies that gave me diabetes and trendy, hashtagged photo frames to take pictures with.

Building the House

I came to a stop. I was tucked back in a grove of trees many miles off the main road, and I had found it. The breeze slipped through the trees and the rays of sunlight bobbed through the branches. I decided that here was my chance to finally do it. I unloaded all my tools and got to work.

My goal was simple: I wanted to build a house from scratch; tirelessly working through every step of the process until I had something that was, well, mine. I took out my ax and started chopping away at a tall, healthy looking tree. Tick Tick Tick echoed through the woods and reverberated around the air. As sweat began to roll down the back of my head, I stopped to stand up and stretch out my back. Doubt began to creep into my mind, telling myself that I had no chance of finishing this project. The summer was only going to get hotter and hotter, and the demands of this labor were going to be crushing me quite soon. I picked up my ax and ignored the rain clouds coming. It was late May.

A car came rumbling down the old logging road, complete with a squeaky suspension system and an American flag flying out the back window. I stepped through my empty doorway, surrounded by horizontally stacked logs and a fresh foundation below my feet. I figured that this new driver was here for a weekend of July 4th camping, so I went out to meet them. When he came out, I looked into his vehicle and noticed a lot of the same things that I currently was using. It dawned on me that I wasn't the only person here to build a house. Under the sweltering summer heat, the newcomer brought out an ax and walked over to a nearby tree. He looked at me and smiled- he was here to build a house too. I smiled back.

I was awakened by the sound of lightning and wind- an August thunderstorm. I could feel my structure being harassed by increasing wind gusts and pelted by rain. I immediately hopped out of my bed and looked over at my  neighbor. He didn't yet have a roof over his head and was surviving in his little tent. He had a long way to go, but don't we all? I went to each of my corners and joints and checked to see if any water had leaked into the house. All was clean, but I couldn't vouch for my neighbor.

A few days later, I started to notice that he was building fast- too fast. He was putting up boards in lines that weren't perfect even. His corners and joints didn't match together perfectly. His equipment and supplies were old and not adequate. I walked over to ask him why he was building so fast. He responded that he knew winter was coming soon and he had to be ready, and so he wanted to get done with as much as possible in a short amount of time. I tried my hardest to convince him that building a house takes time, effort, and some good luck, and that he would need to slow down in order to be ok long-term. I listened to the wind- a soft, north wind with a hint of fall in it. He was right to say that cold was coming soon, but a house can't be built on shoddy foundation.

The first snowflake gently fell on the ground, followed by another, and and another. I had recently finished enclosing the outside of my house, and though the outside still needed plenty of work, and the inside had no improvements at all, I might be able to stay warm during the winter. I looked out my small, east-facing window and checked up on my neighbor. He was running over to my house.
"Hey do you have any extra wood that I could borrow? I need to finish closing up some holes"
I lent him some wood and watched him frantically run around his house the rest of the day, stuffing papers and insulation into as many small openings as he could find. Winters get cold up here, ya know.

The thermometer read -10F. The snow was thick outside as I fetched some more wood to put on my fire. The smoke lingered gently above the smoke stack on top of my house. Jack Frost had drawn all over the windows, and the last of the stars glistened in the sky as the morning sun decided to take a late peak over the horizon. I sat down on my chair and grabbed a book off the shelf. I was nearing the end of completing my house. The roof needed a little work after the snowpack eroded in the spring, and the inside needing some tidying up, but overall I took pride in making sure the house was solidly built. My neighbor left a few days ago. He couldn't take the cold anymore, and his poorly-built house couldn't support him. Since then we've had another big round of snow and the weight of it all caused his flat roof to collapse. Now it's a giant pile of wood and broken dreams.

I don't feel bad for him. Everybody wants the nice house to show others and enjoy spending time in. Everybody wants their house built quickly and for the best results. Everybody wants to maximize output and minimize input. He left because he hadn't taken the time to make sure that his house was prepared for the worst. Sure, I have to spend a lot of time cutting wood. Sure, every now and again there's something with the house that needs a quick fix. But what's important is that it's fixable. A house that isn't built properly will fail. and the person who built it will have to start over at square one. For the rest of the winter now, I'm by myself. I assume that when the weather improves, someone will come looking for a place to make their home. Some will make a sturdy building, some will not. For now, I'm simply glad that I took the time to make sure the house was built beautifully and in a way that I can enjoy it.

The sun is out now. A breeze from the west blew in overnight and now the snow is dipping from the trees, occasionally plopping right on my forehead. The high clouds wisp past without making a sound. The animals of the woods have emerged from their winter slumber and are playfully running around, not too far removed from my plans. I have my running shorts on and I'm out the door. I'm heading down the road and finding new trails to explore. The rush I get from it is exhilarating, and I'm thankful for everything I have. I also know that it all happened because of the task of building a house and doing it right. It's always better to do it right the first time, no matter how difficult or boring it may seem at the time. Good luck finding the house though.