This post is the third in a series looking at the numbers of the North Dakota State Track Meet. The first two posts covered the top athletes- runners that won three or more state titles in one year- and a post looking at how the winning times in the distance events have changed over time. This post attempts to provide a little more depth to the topic by looking at the next runners behind the winners. As previously, I am indebted to the incredible work of Brad Leingang, who has compiled state track meet results dating back to 1903 and made them easily and publicly available. The page can be viewed here: https://sites.google.com/bismarckschools.org/bpstrackfieldxc/home/all-time-lists.
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A while back, I charted the winning times in the distance events at state track, and looked at how they changed over time. You can read that post here. The main conclusion in that post was that no matter what class or gender you look at, the best of the best in the state haven't really improved much over the last 20 years. Sure, certain individuals have broken state records, but there was no pattern over time.
The most reasonable question following that was- what about the mortals? Looking through historical results, and realizing that it's hard to get times for more than the top 3, 4, or even 5 runners at an event at state track until the 80s, I decided to look at the average of the times for finishers 3-5 in the 1600 meters for each division to get a sense of depth. Here's my reasoning:
1.) Trying to average the top 8 runners means I wouldn't start getting data until the mid-1990s.
2.) Not including 1st or 2nd place almost entirely removes the possibility of outliers, because usually we won't see more than one or two freak athletes per event per year.
3.) The 1600 meters is the distance that catches all the distance runners, including 800m and 3200m runners.
4.) The 1600 meters was competed earlier than the 3200 meters.
As a result, the following graphs provide a look at if it has become more or less difficult over time to score points in the 1600 meters at the state meet. By removing the outliers of places 1 and 2, these charts should give us a little more insight into whether the state has gotten "stronger" at the top over the decades. Sure, participation numbers are going up (ESPECIALLY in Class B), but does more mean faster? Let's take a look.
First Look:
This chart will be broken down into its four different parts below. However, here we can get a glimpse of what the data will tell us. The horizontal axis provides the years beginning with 1972, and finishing with 2019 (the most recent state meet). The vertical axis provides the time that represents the average of places 3-5 in the given 1600 meter race. Each of the following graphs will use the same format.
From the graphs, here's what immediately jumps out:
1.) For the women, both classes showed improvement in times until the 1990s, which is reasonable because track had only recently been introduced as a sport for women. Times stagnated after that.
2.) For the men, there has been no discernable difference in time since the early 1970s, which is fairly similar to what the charts for only the first-place runners showed as well.
3.) On the men's side, there have been a couple of years where Class B averaged better than Class A, but it seems clear that those years were slow years for Class A- not necessarily fast years for Class B.
4.) On the women's side, there have also been a couple of years where Class B averaged better than Class A, and it appears to have been a combination of fast Class B years, and slow Class A years.
5.) 2006 and 2007 appear to be slow years for everyone, and I'll address that point later in this post.
Let's look at each class individually:
Class B Girls:
As mentioned above, there is a steep drop off early on, but that can be mostly attributed to the newness of women's track. By the mid 1990s, times leveled off, and started a variable swinging pattern that hasn't stopped.
The fastest year for the 3-5 athletes so far has been 2016. In that year, 8th place was 5:18, which you'll note on this chart is faster than the 3-5 average most of the years so far (and would have won state in some years). Here are the top 5 from that year:
1- Peyton Frolek (Milnor/Wyndmere/Lidgerwood) - 4:59.05
2- Kate Fox (Southern Mclean) - 5:02.73
3- Ashley Perez (Oak Grove) - 5:06.92
4- Asha Smith (Watford City) - 5:07.56
5- Kayla Ogle (Watford City) - 5:08.02
Note that when Krista and Lindsay Anderson, two of the all-time fastest Class B distance runners, were racing (2000-2008), some of those years don't correspond with the fastest times for the 3-5 runners, and some do. This is because they were outliers, won everything, and therefore don't get included in this data. Just because the top 2 are crazy fast, doesn't necessarily mean everyone else is, too.
Class A Girls:
Notice how for the Class A Girls, the graph looks almost exactly the same as the one above, especially with the peaking around 2007. This leads me to wonder if the weather was brutal for those state meets, and I'll be looking for that in the next two charts. Similar to the Class B girls, the times fall quickly until the mid 1990s, and then bounce until present-day. Because of recent fast years, the trendline for this graph would be generally downward throughout the whole set of data. We need a few more years after 2019 to really get a good idea if there is still a downward trend or not.
The fastest year for Class A was also 2016, when 8th place was 5:07.49, which would be faster than the 3-5 average most of these years, and win state other years. That year Karly Ackley and Mattie Shirley-Fairbairn dueled in the 3200 and both ran 10:32; It was a pretty stacked year. Here are the top 5 in the 1600:
1- Karly Ackley (Grand Forks Central) - 4:53.76
2- Mattie Shirley-Fairbairn (Bismarck High) - 4:58.70
3- Kelby Anderson (Bismarck Century) - 5:01.03
4- Alexis Roehl (Grand Forks Central) - 5:02.82
5- Jennifer Dufner (West Fargo) - 5:03.69
At least four of these girls ran or are currently running division 1.
Note also that the state record by Becki Wells from the early 1990s does not affect the data here, even though her time would be well off this chart.
Class B Boys:
Due to men's sports being around longer than women's, the men's race were already established by the 1970s. As a result, the steep drop off we saw with the women isn't here. In fact, there is no downward trend here at all. Furthermore, we can actually see a fairly pronounced UPWARD pattern here from 1988 to 2008, a period of 20 years.
The downward trend most recently on the graph (2012-2017) can be partially attributed to New Town's dominance and depth, but now that they have lost most of their best runners, it'll be interesting to see where the data heads in the next few years.
The fastest year on the books is, incredibly, 1981. Here's the top 5 from that year:
1- Rick Dressler (Flasher) 4:23.2
2- Glenn Mastel (Ellendale) 4:23.46
3- Paul Gordon (New England) 4:26.87
4- Tim Myron (Thompson) 4:26.87
5- Jeff Manley (Carrington) 4:27.36
Also with this chart, the slow times around 2006-2007 continue, and I'm really starting to wonder what the weather was like that year. Let's see if the Class A Boys have the same trend.
Class A Boys:
Another mirror image. Similar to the Class B Boy's chart, the Class A has no downward trend in times, and also has an upward trend through the early 2000s, culminating in another set of slow times in 2006-2007. Additionally, there is a slow year in 1992, which every other class shared as well. Must have been another bad weather year.
The fastest year for Class A was also from the 1980s, this time 1980 itself. This was another example of all athletes in the top 6 running fast enough to win state some years. Here are the top 5 from that year:
1- Greg Rohde (Bismarck Century) - 4:12.85
2- Jim Herberg (Grand Forks Central) - 4:15.2
3- Tom Dabill (Jamestown) - 4:18
4- John Alin (West Fargo) - 4:18.3
5- Tom Kringstad (Bismarck Century) - 4:21.17
As for the slow times in the early 2000s and 1992, I reached out to the National Weather Services in Bismarck and Grand Forks and asked about the weather for the days of state track in 1992 (Grand Forks), and 2006 and 2007 (Bismarck). Here's what they had to say:
1992- "On the 22nd it was cloudy all day with a high of 47 with morning rain showers and north to northwest winds 15 to 20mph. On the 23rd it was 51 for a high with due north winds 10-15mph".
That second day was when Corey Ihmels ran the 9:03 3200m state record!
2006 and 2007- "For May 26th and 27th 2006, it was warm with the high both days 92. Both days were windy with southeast wind gusts to near 40 mph. We had 0.06 inches of [precipitation] on the 26th, and 0.49 on the 27th (thunderstorms). In 2007, the high was 56 on the 25th (with 0.75 inches of precip) and 58 on the 26th (0.25 inches of precip). Both of those days were also windy, with an east or northeast wind gusting again to around 40 mph."
So there you have it- the weather was not great for the slowest years, especially 2006 and 2007. However, even if those years were 'normal' for times, we still wouldn't have a general downward trend in times.
It's hard to draw too many conclusions from the given data, but I think the one clear fact is this: the times needed to score points in the 1600m at the state track meet has not generally changed in quite a while.
The following times are good goals for high school athletes to shoot for, as evidenced by the data. In general, hitting these times would, in most years, accomplish the desired goal for the athlete. In some years, the goal time would place them higher, and in some years lower, but in general the goals are still good:
B Girls: Top 8: under 5:25.
Top 5: under 5:20
Top 1-2: under 5:05
A Girls: Top 8: under 5:20
Top 5: under 5:10-5:15
Top 1-2: under 5:00
B Boys: Top 8: under 4:35
Top 5: under 4:30
Top 1-2: under 4:25
A Boys: Top 8: 4:30-4:35
Top 5: under 4:25
Top 1-2: under 4:20
