With 2020 in the rear-view mirror, and with fall sports starting to ramp up, it's time to talk about what we expect to see this fall in North Dakota cross country. Last year presented significant challenges with some teams periodically being shut down to the covid, and low participation numbers for the same reason. Class A and B were dominated by seniors on the boy's side, opening up the field for a new batch of talent. Conversely, the girl's races did not have many seniors, and as a result we might see many familiar faces up front this year. Additionally, last year teams ran 7 runners at the state meet, whereas in the past they've been allowed 10. Will that be the case this year? I guess we'll find out.
Please note that all predictions below are assuming that everybody from last year runs, and no new people pop up out of nowhere with breakout performances. Obviously there will be good new runners, but the previous year's results have proven over the last 10 years to be surprisingly accurate at predicting the next year's state meet.
Class B Girls:
The Class B Girls cross country state meet was dominated by Rugby last year, as the only team with less than 100 points (80), and having all five scorers finish before any other team (except Sargent) had three in. There was only four seniors in the top 30, and the winner was an unheralded freshman from Kindred- Peyton Gette.
Individual- What can we expect?
Basically nothing. This division is the biggest toss-up. Consider these facts:
1.) Last year's state xc winner, Peyton Gette, didn't win her regional meet, and took 12th in the 3200m at the state track meet this past spring.
2.) Last year's 2nd place finisher, Norah Entzi from Edgeley/Kulm, took 10th in the 1600m and didn't run the 3200m at the state track meet.
3.) Last year's 3rd place finisher, Brooklyn Bartsch took 2nd in the 1600m and 8th in the 3200m at the state track meet.
4.) The girl that won the 3200m at the state track meet, Brynn Hanson from Des-Lacs Burlington, was only 10th at state cross country last year.
There's no pattern to predict from here. These girls are young and have no established leader that routinely wins on the big stage. I'm going to go with Hanson just because she won the 3200m at state track in the spring (most recent distance result), and as an 8th grader this year, probably has room for big improvements.
Team- What can we expect?
It's probably going to be season three of the Rugby-show. Using last year's results, I removed all seniors and re-scored the meet, but only scored using 4 runners because any team with 2 or 3 seniors would be punished in the rescore. Here's what it looks like:
1- Rugby (46)
2- Bowman County (92)
3- Hillsboro/Central Valley (107)
4- Kindred (113)
5- May-Port CG (159)
As you can see, Rugby has half the score of the next closest team. They also have continued depth after their 4th runner. In the rescore, their 7th runner comes in at 41st place, which is better than every other team's #4 runner except Bowman County. Also, from the numbers you can see it's going to be a scrap for 2nd place on the podium. I predict Rugby will run away with it, and Bowman County in second.
Class A Girls:
The biggest move in the Class A this year is the departure of Meghan Ford from Jamestown. For the last couple of years it hasn't been hard to predict who would win state cross country or distance events at state track. Ford raced her way into the top ten in state history, often winning cross country meets by at least a minute. With her gone, there is now a void at the top. Who will fill it?
Individual- What can we expect?
Amazingly enough, four of the top five returners this year are from either Watford City or Williston, which makes up a tiny, not-very-populated part of the state. But here we are.
Last year's 2nd place finisher, Jaelyn Ogle from Watford City, is the highest-placing returner. She placed 7th in the 1600m and 4th in the 3200m (behind three seniors) at state track in the spring.
Eleni Lovgren of Williston is the next highest returner. She placed 4th (behind three seniors and ahead of Jaelyn) in the 1600m and 5th (right behind Ogle) in the 3200m at state track. She also broke her own Maah Daah Hey Trail 5k record this summer- 19:04. What's significant is that she ran 1:30 faster than last summer, which means she's in better shape than last year.
The next highest returner is Acey Elkins of Mandan. She placed 6th at state xc, a mere four seconds behind Lovgren, and then placed 6th in the 1600 (ahead of Ogle, but behind Lovgren) and 6th in the 800 (ahead of Lovgren, and Ogle didn't run it) at the state track met.
The next high returner after that was 7th grader Dru Zander of Williston, but it doesn't appear that she ran at the state track meet last year.
I think it's likely a WDA athlete wins the title, and I'm going to go with Lovgren over Ogle for first and second. Lovgren's fitness is very impressive right now, but will it still be there at state in October?
Team- What can we expect?
It's looking likely that Williston wins a 2nd title in a row this year. Last year they squeaked in front of Bismarck High for the title by a score of 75 to 78, and this year they bring back their top four and five of their top six. They have a chance to score fairly low as a result. Here's what the rescore of the top 4 returning runners looks like:
1- Williston (31)
2- Bismarck High (43)
3- Fargo North (85)
4- West Fargo (114)
5- Minot (119)
It's worth noting that even though Williston and BHS appear close, Williston's 5th runner comes in at 26th place in the rescore, while BHS's 5th runner comes in at 46, a big difference.
Class B Boys:
Last year's major event in Class B was that New Town's string of EIGHT consecutive state titles was ended by Bowman County, who won both the team and individual titles, and here's the kicker- they might be able to do it again.
Individual- What can we expect?
There were five seniors in the top nine last year, but that means four of the top nine are coming back.
The fastest returner is Ian Busche of Beulah-Hazen, who placed 3rd and was more than 20 seconds faster than any other returner in the field. There was only one non-senior ahead of him at state track in the 1600m and 3200m last year, but it's likely that athlete won't be in this race.
That would be Caleb Hansen of Dickinson Trinity. In the creation of this post, I learned that Dickinson Trinity must not have their own cross country program, and instead co-op with Dickinson High. Hansen is one of the best class B distance runners, but he ran Class A for cross country in 2020.
If Hansen runs class A this season, I can easily see Busche running away with the title. If DT has their own program this season, that would make things interesting. I'm going with Ian Busche for the title.
Team- What can we expect?
By all accounts, this year looks like a repeat for the Bowman County Bulldogs. Here's the rescore of the top four returners:
1- Bowman County (32)
2- Hillsboro/Central Valley (75)
3- Griggs-Midkota (99)
4- Killdeer (115)
5- Kindred (116)
Even if we add the fifth runner for some teams, Bowman County's score is still lower than Hillsboro's score with four runners. BC has shown aptitude for showing up at big meets over the last few years, and so don't discount their top returners, who are 4th, 6th, and 7th in the rescore- they could win an individual title as well.
Class A Boys:
At the end of last cross country season, we knew that Class A distance was highly competitive as compared to previous year. However, I don't think any outside observers could have predicted the madness that befell the state track meet in the spring, when the kids threw down the deepest 3200m final in state history, and it wasn't even close to any other race. Multiple kids breaking the state record, freshman running under 9:20- it's hard to describe in words what the race was. Below is a thread I created of the race if you'd like to see when I tried.
While it may be true that we lost the most talented senior class possibly in state history (the entire top seven at state xc was seniors), there are some incredible runners coming up through the pipeline, and predicting which one will win state this year is a fool's game. I, fortunately, am a fool.2021 ND State Class A Boys 3200 Meter Run- A THREAD
— Nate Peterson (@UND_runner) May 30, 2021
This race had:
-3 athletes break the state meet record of 9:03.56
-Records set for every individual place 1-8
-2 athletes break 9 minutes for the first time in the history of the state meet
And More! Let's dig in. pic.twitter.com/DI4ijDetJD
The top returner this year (from state xc) is Hunter McHenry of Grand Forks Red River, who will surely factor in their quest for a team title this fall. He ran 4:27 (1600m) and 9:38 (3200m) at state track in the spring, but that was only good enough for 5th-best returner in both races. At state xc, he finished with the same time as the next highest junior in the field.
That would be Caleb Hansen of Dickinson (remember him?) Hansen was the top non-senior in the Class B 1600m and 3200m last spring, but those times would have been behind McHenry in the Class A race.
The third-highest returner would be Quinn Roehl of Grand Forks Central. He was two seconds behind McHenry in the 1600m and did not run well in the 800m at state track in the spring. He was 11th overall at state cross country last fall.
There are four other names that I have to mention as serious contenders, and they are all young:
-Junior Fynn Krenz of Williston. Despite only being the 9th returner from state xc, he had a HUGE track season, and ran 9:21 in the 3200m, being the third returner in that fast race.
-Junior Ethan Moe of Williston. Despite only being the 8th returner from state xc, he also had a HUGE track season, culminating with a 4th place finish in the 1600m (4:17) and a title in the 800m, running 1:54. Watch out for the Williston boys.
-Sophomore Aiden Johnson of West Fargo Sheyenne. He is the 5th-fastest returner, but ran a great state meet, running 4:21 in the 1600m and an astounding 9:13 in the 3200m. Anyone who can come within 10 seconds of the previous state 3200m record as a freshman is a contender for a title.
-Sophomore Owen Sondag of Fargo North. Despite being 39th place at state xc last fall, he also had a great state meet, running 9:17 in the 3200m as a freshman.
I'm going with either McHenry of Krenz. McHenry is the fastest returner, and despite not lighting the track on fire last spring, Red River tends to do well at big cross country meets, and the fact that he'll be fighting for spots for a team title makes it even bigger. Krenz ran a huge 3200m in the spring, but then this summer he ran 1:25:32 for the Maah Daah Hey Half Marathon, which is an average of 6:20 pace for 13.1 miles through the Badlands, and he won by 10 minutes. He's clearly in great shape right now, and will also be fighting for a team title. I'm going to go with Krenz because I'm again leaning towards fast times on trail translating to cross country fitness even more than spring track results. I'm ready to be completely wrong, though.
Team- What can we expect?
This one is easier- 2021 could be the first year since 2003 that a team from the EDC wins the state boy's title. Grand Forks Red River has a very strong returning squad. Below is the top-4 rescore. Please note that last year's winner- Bismarck Century- had five seniors, and thus only has two returners in the official results. I'm not too worried about the prospect of a three-peat, because graduating five of your top seven is almost impossible to replace in one year, and it appears that they didn't have any non-seniors in the 3200m at state track in the spring.
1- Grand Forks Red River (29)
2- Williston (75)
3- Grand Forks Central (88)
4- Dickinson (89)
5- Bismarck High (100)
Even adding fifth runners for team that do, GFRR is only at 64 points, which is tough to beat any year. I predict they'll win for the EDC this year.
So there you have it! See you in October!
