Class A Boys:
Team- Bismarck Century
Individual- Hunter Lucas (Senior)- Fargo Davies
Class A Girls:
Team- Fargo Davies
Individual- Karly Ackely (Senior) - Grand Forks Central
Class B Boys:
Team- New Town
Individual- Jalen Chase (Junior)- New Town
Class B Girls:
Team- Hillsboro/Central Valley
Individual- Reagen Baesler (Freshman)- Hillsboro/Central Valley
The meet was held at the Parkhurst Recreation Area near the Pipestem Dam north of Jamestown. The whole course was pretty flat, with few sharp turns, and all grass. The first part of the course was through open prairie, the middle part was through a small patch of pines, and the last part was through the prairie again. For athletes, the course was fast and adequate. For spectators, it was awful; the organizers even told us that the pine forest was off-limits to coaches and spectators (scoff). The parking, team camp space, and porta-potties was inadequate, but the location was off the main road and quite peaceful.
Now, for the analysis of the Girls' races. The A and B boys races are here.
In the B race, there were 47 teams and 223 runners. That comes out to an average of 4.7 runners per team, which when considering that 5 runners score, is very small. Additionally, every school in the state can bring 10 girls runners to state, and so that number is actually staggeringly low. 25 out of the 47 teams- or 53%- fielded a full five runners. Much like the Class B boys, it seems that a handful of programs provide a majority of the athletes. The top 10 teams in the race (or just over 20% of the teams) provided 36% of the athletes.
At the coaches meeting, the topic was brought up about the increasing in participation numbers. Here's a look at the changes over time in participation at the Class B Girls' Meet:
Year Runners Teams
2004 144 25
2005 146 27
2006 153 28
2007 150 29
2008 179 30
2009 177 35
2010 172 41
2011 198 38
2012 196 37
2013 209 37
2014 208 39
2015 234 45
2016 223 47
As we can see from this list and graph, there has over time been a steady increase in both teams and total runners at the State B girls' meet. One interesting thing that I noticed is when there is a year with a jump in the number of teams, there is usually a small decrease in state participants, which is mind-boggling to me. Is it possibly that when co-ops are broken up that less athletes feel connected to team and thus don't participate? I have no idea. What I do know is that, like the B Boys, numbers are increasing, and that's good for the sport. If the numbers keep increasing at this rate, then 5-10 years down the road some tough decisions will have to be made, but for now those are tabled.
In the B race, there were 47 teams and 223 runners. That comes out to an average of 4.7 runners per team, which when considering that 5 runners score, is very small. Additionally, every school in the state can bring 10 girls runners to state, and so that number is actually staggeringly low. 25 out of the 47 teams- or 53%- fielded a full five runners. Much like the Class B boys, it seems that a handful of programs provide a majority of the athletes. The top 10 teams in the race (or just over 20% of the teams) provided 36% of the athletes.
At the coaches meeting, the topic was brought up about the increasing in participation numbers. Here's a look at the changes over time in participation at the Class B Girls' Meet:
Year Runners Teams
2004 144 252005 146 27
2006 153 28
2007 150 29
2008 179 30
2009 177 35
2010 172 41
2011 198 38
2012 196 37
2013 209 37
2014 208 39
2015 234 45
2016 223 47
As we can see from this list and graph, there has over time been a steady increase in both teams and total runners at the State B girls' meet. One interesting thing that I noticed is when there is a year with a jump in the number of teams, there is usually a small decrease in state participants, which is mind-boggling to me. Is it possibly that when co-ops are broken up that less athletes feel connected to team and thus don't participate? I have no idea. What I do know is that, like the B Boys, numbers are increasing, and that's good for the sport. If the numbers keep increasing at this rate, then 5-10 years down the road some tough decisions will have to be made, but for now those are tabled.
There isn't as much of a way to look at state cross country to see Class A increases in participation. Most of the Class A teams are able to bring 10 runners to state, and do (and there hasn't really been an increase in Class A teams either). In order to get an accurate picture of participation changes, one would have to look at regular season meets, especially the conference meets. I'm not doing that right now.
Next, I wanted to look at the difference between the Class A and Class B times. In North Dakota, comparing state times from year-to-year doesn't make any sense, because the meet bounces around. The previous five state meets have been in Grand Forks, Minot, Valley City, Dickinson, and Fargo. Combining that with the fact that the weather can be all over the place (it was snowing in Dickinson at state, but this year was in the 50s and sunny), and comparing years doesn't work. However, we can look at how divisions compare to each other every year. This next list compiles the average of the top ten times in the Class A and Class B races every year going back to 2003. Additionally, I looked at the percent difference between the times by taking their difference, dividing by the original, and multiplying by 100. I should note ahead of time that this was the first year that Varsity Girls ran a 5k in North Dakota. Before that, it was 4k.
Year Class A Class B % Difference
2016 18:14.8 19:10.4 5.1%
2015 14:42.2 15:04.6 2.5%
2014 14:37.7 15:26.8 5.6%
2013 14:48.7 15:30.3 4.7%
2012 15:11.7 15:54.9 4.7%
2011 14:39.8 15:25.9 5.2%
2010 15:12.6 15:50.7 4.2%
2009 15:06.0 15:41.3 3.9%
2008 15:16.1 16:06.3 5.5%
2007 14:57.1 15:32.3 3.9%
2006 14:59.4 15:42.8 4.8%
2005 15:54.1 16:11.6 1.8%
2004 15:27.4 15:34.5 0.8%
2003 15:12.2 15:21.8 1.1% (overall avg 3.8%)
Three things immediately stand out to me in regards to this table. This first is that the percent difference between A and B over time is remarkably stable. With a few exceptions, the differences hovers in the 4-5% area. The second thing that jumped out to me was the low overall avg compared to the boys. This means that the top ten girls tend to be closer on average than the top ten boys when comparing A and B. The third thing that stood out to me was how the Anderson family could literally shift the whole landscape in the early 2000s. The fast times that those sisters ran (sometimes faster than the fastest A times that year) helped pull up the average time and bring it closer to Class A, specifically in 2003-2005. As I said on the other post, I'd like to eventually take a look at which distance events in track follow similar patterns to this, and use these percents to examine if our state qualifying standards are fair, or if they favor one class or another; however, that's another post for another day.
Of course, there is a reason that A and B have the differences. I've talked many times on here before about why the difference between A and B exists, but to summarize briefly:
1.) There are simply less kids in Class B. If, let's just say on average, 5 out of every 100 9th graders go on to run under 16:00 (4k) in high school, that simply means less kids in Class B than Class A that can do it.
2.) Due to the school location and sizes, less experienced coaches have the Class B programs. It's entirely possible that a small school will have a coach that ran briefly in high school, while a big school could have a coach with a successful college career under his or her belt.
3.) The training facilities are much different. Bigger cities have big grass parks, running trails, and much nicer tracks. Small schools have country gravel roads and in most cases crappy tracks.
4.) Bigger schools tend to have more money to spend on programs like cross country and track and field.
5.) The team sizes being bigger in Class A schools affords athletes more chances to have running partners and people to push them. When, for example with my program this last year, there are only a couple varsity athletes separated by quite a bit of time, most of their training is on their own.
Now, the last thing I'd like to do is the hypothetical state meet when the upperclass(wo)men are taken out. Where does the future go? Here's a look at the breakdown of the top 40 runners by grade:
Class A:
Seniors- 5
Juniors- 4
Sophomores- 6
Freshmen- 11
8th Grade- 12
7th Grade- 2
Class B:
Seniors- 7
Juniors- 4
Sophomores- 9
Freshmen- 11
8th Grade- 7
7th Grade- 2
So again, as I alluded to in the previous post, these races (especially the A girls) were very young. Notice how in the A race there were more 8th graders in the top 40 than seniors and juniors combined. That's insane. I understand that more 8th and 9th graders are successful in the women's races than the men's, but still- wow.
The final thing I want to discus (that's not a typo if you read letsrun.com) is the next two years hypothetically. The idea is that all the seniors are removed from this year's race, and then it is re-scored to represent what next year could roughly look like. After that, seniors and juniors are removed and then only four runners are scored (to account for upperclass-heavy teams) to simulate two years from now. It's not an exact science, but hey- can't we geek out about these things?
Here's the breakdown for Class B:
2016: No Seniors: No Seniors/Juniors (score 4):
1.) Hillsboro/Central Valley 133 1.)H/CV 103 1.) Rugby 83
2.) Bowman County 151 2.) Rugby 118 2.) H/CV 89
3.) Rubgy 153 3.) BC 196 3.) BC 105
4.) Hatton/Northwood/Thompson 204 4.) So. Mclean 262 4.) HNT 184
5.) Southern Mclean 311 5.) Watford City 273 4.) Surrey 184
The first thing I took from this is that Rugby has a very strong, young team, and within a couple years could take over the reign from Hillsboro/Central Valley. The second is that the top three teams seem solid for the next few years, no doubt because it seems like many Class B programs either continually breed large participation numbers (and more success), or try to survive on a few top runners every few years. Hats off to the coaches who continually produce large teams year after year in such an undervalued sport in Class B.
Here's the breakdown for Class A:
2016: No Seniors: No Seniors/Juniors (score 4):
1.) Fargo Davies 71 1.) Fargo Davies 54 1.) Fargo Davies 39
2.) Bismarck Century 95 2.) Bis High 94 2.) Bis High 43
3.) Grand Forks Central 97 3.) Bis Cen 116 3.) Bis Cen 67
4.) Bismarck High 115 4.) GFC 139 4.) GFC 116
5.) Minot 178 5.) Minot 152 5.) Minot 118
I think it's safe to say that Fargo Davies has a pretty good hold on the state for at least a few more years, unless they lose athletes to injury or another school produces some talented runners (both of which are completely possible). Notice how the top five schools do not change at all, and the order of the top five does not change for the last two scenarios. This class was the youngest of any of the four races at the state meet, so it makes sense that taking out older runners doesn't affect the overall results all that much.
Sorry for getting this out so late! I've been pretty busy with student teaching and such this semester, but I hope you made it through all the jargon in this post and enjoyed it. Merry Christmas!
Year Class A Class B % Difference
2016 18:14.8 19:10.4 5.1%
2015 14:42.2 15:04.6 2.5%
2014 14:37.7 15:26.8 5.6%
2013 14:48.7 15:30.3 4.7%
2012 15:11.7 15:54.9 4.7%
2011 14:39.8 15:25.9 5.2%
2010 15:12.6 15:50.7 4.2%
2009 15:06.0 15:41.3 3.9%
2008 15:16.1 16:06.3 5.5%
2007 14:57.1 15:32.3 3.9%
2006 14:59.4 15:42.8 4.8%
2005 15:54.1 16:11.6 1.8%
2004 15:27.4 15:34.5 0.8%
2003 15:12.2 15:21.8 1.1% (overall avg 3.8%)
Three things immediately stand out to me in regards to this table. This first is that the percent difference between A and B over time is remarkably stable. With a few exceptions, the differences hovers in the 4-5% area. The second thing that jumped out to me was the low overall avg compared to the boys. This means that the top ten girls tend to be closer on average than the top ten boys when comparing A and B. The third thing that stood out to me was how the Anderson family could literally shift the whole landscape in the early 2000s. The fast times that those sisters ran (sometimes faster than the fastest A times that year) helped pull up the average time and bring it closer to Class A, specifically in 2003-2005. As I said on the other post, I'd like to eventually take a look at which distance events in track follow similar patterns to this, and use these percents to examine if our state qualifying standards are fair, or if they favor one class or another; however, that's another post for another day.
Of course, there is a reason that A and B have the differences. I've talked many times on here before about why the difference between A and B exists, but to summarize briefly:
1.) There are simply less kids in Class B. If, let's just say on average, 5 out of every 100 9th graders go on to run under 16:00 (4k) in high school, that simply means less kids in Class B than Class A that can do it.
2.) Due to the school location and sizes, less experienced coaches have the Class B programs. It's entirely possible that a small school will have a coach that ran briefly in high school, while a big school could have a coach with a successful college career under his or her belt.
3.) The training facilities are much different. Bigger cities have big grass parks, running trails, and much nicer tracks. Small schools have country gravel roads and in most cases crappy tracks.
4.) Bigger schools tend to have more money to spend on programs like cross country and track and field.
5.) The team sizes being bigger in Class A schools affords athletes more chances to have running partners and people to push them. When, for example with my program this last year, there are only a couple varsity athletes separated by quite a bit of time, most of their training is on their own.
Now, the last thing I'd like to do is the hypothetical state meet when the upperclass(wo)men are taken out. Where does the future go? Here's a look at the breakdown of the top 40 runners by grade:
Class A:
Seniors- 5
Juniors- 4
Sophomores- 6
Freshmen- 11
8th Grade- 12
7th Grade- 2
Class B:
Seniors- 7
Juniors- 4
Sophomores- 9
Freshmen- 11
8th Grade- 7
7th Grade- 2
So again, as I alluded to in the previous post, these races (especially the A girls) were very young. Notice how in the A race there were more 8th graders in the top 40 than seniors and juniors combined. That's insane. I understand that more 8th and 9th graders are successful in the women's races than the men's, but still- wow.
The final thing I want to discus (that's not a typo if you read letsrun.com) is the next two years hypothetically. The idea is that all the seniors are removed from this year's race, and then it is re-scored to represent what next year could roughly look like. After that, seniors and juniors are removed and then only four runners are scored (to account for upperclass-heavy teams) to simulate two years from now. It's not an exact science, but hey- can't we geek out about these things?
Here's the breakdown for Class B:
2016: No Seniors: No Seniors/Juniors (score 4):
1.) Hillsboro/Central Valley 133 1.)H/CV 103 1.) Rugby 83
2.) Bowman County 151 2.) Rugby 118 2.) H/CV 89
3.) Rubgy 153 3.) BC 196 3.) BC 105
4.) Hatton/Northwood/Thompson 204 4.) So. Mclean 262 4.) HNT 184
5.) Southern Mclean 311 5.) Watford City 273 4.) Surrey 184
The first thing I took from this is that Rugby has a very strong, young team, and within a couple years could take over the reign from Hillsboro/Central Valley. The second is that the top three teams seem solid for the next few years, no doubt because it seems like many Class B programs either continually breed large participation numbers (and more success), or try to survive on a few top runners every few years. Hats off to the coaches who continually produce large teams year after year in such an undervalued sport in Class B.
Here's the breakdown for Class A:
2016: No Seniors: No Seniors/Juniors (score 4):
1.) Fargo Davies 71 1.) Fargo Davies 54 1.) Fargo Davies 39
2.) Bismarck Century 95 2.) Bis High 94 2.) Bis High 43
3.) Grand Forks Central 97 3.) Bis Cen 116 3.) Bis Cen 67
4.) Bismarck High 115 4.) GFC 139 4.) GFC 116
5.) Minot 178 5.) Minot 152 5.) Minot 118
I think it's safe to say that Fargo Davies has a pretty good hold on the state for at least a few more years, unless they lose athletes to injury or another school produces some talented runners (both of which are completely possible). Notice how the top five schools do not change at all, and the order of the top five does not change for the last two scenarios. This class was the youngest of any of the four races at the state meet, so it makes sense that taking out older runners doesn't affect the overall results all that much.
Sorry for getting this out so late! I've been pretty busy with student teaching and such this semester, but I hope you made it through all the jargon in this post and enjoyed it. Merry Christmas!
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