Wednesday, December 26, 2018

Light


     I was sitting at the UCC Church in Garrison, North Dakota for a service. My wife Ingrid just completed a masterful poem focused on remembrance and coping with loss, and now we were going to celebrate life. One by one we lit candles and set them in sand lying within a large, wooden cross. In the dark rooms of the church, the candles stood out brighter than all else, symbolizing the light that we each carry within us, and how we never let it die. Each of these lights representing a life missed, and it was a moving experience. Light is powerful. 

     On the drive home, beneath a dark, starry, December sky, there is a slight orange glow to the west and northwest. Here in rural North Dakota, there has never been any reason for light pollution to fill up the sky when an area the size of Vermont and New Hampshire combined has a population less than Fargo, North Dakota. With the advent of oil development has come flaring, or burning of natural gas that is produced as a by-product of fracking. This natural gas is burned on-site and produces an incredibly bright, continuous fire that lights up the whole country-side. The closest oil development is only 40 miles away. On a cloudy night, the clouds appear orange, much like what you might see in a large city. It makes the stars less spectacular, but it can also help defeat the intense darkness of the rural Great Plains. Light is powerful.

      Back in July, a friend and I were hiking in the badlands on the beautiful Maah Daah Hey Trail. Our first night of camping, we were in a spot where the sky above us illuminated the full Milky Way, almost like a thick glitter in the sky. From high up on a ridge we could look down the valley at the only lights for miles- the tiny tourist town of Medora. We marveled how the next day we would be approaching that town, even though it seemed like a daunting task. Walking back to our tents, we needed to use our headlamps to guide us, because the darkness made it difficult to even see our feet on the ground. Light is powerful.

     Light is also a basic lifeline for runners. Many runners can survive by running in towns with streetlights bright enough to light the paths. When I was in college, I would run on the greenway in Grand Forks, and though the darkness was deep by the river, the lights in town were enough to show at least the outlines of the path. I didn’t need a light for that. However, for many runners the darkness faces an insurmountable challenge- not only from the inability to see, but also from the devious behavior of some that can, along with making sure others can see you! For me, this is paramount. I run on a paved two-lane highway that is completely dark when the sun is down. I can faintly see the general outline of the road, but if there was a person or animal, I wouldn’t see. If a car is driving down the shoulder-less road, they might not see me until it’s too late. As a result, I have to buy things to get electrons moving fast enough to make sure I don’t get into trouble.

    I run with two lights, a headlamp for my front, and an LED anklet for my back. Both are highly effective at keeping me safe, because every car that drives past will move over to the other lane and- perhaps the best thing that can happen- turn off their brights. See, lights can be TOO bright. We all know how it feels to be driving down the highway, and the person coming from the opposite direction still has their brights on. Continuing to look at the road becomes difficult as we squint, feeling the searing pain on our eyes. Eventually the car either drives past, or the driver turns off their brights; either way it’s not a fun experience. While running on the road, this can be even worse. In the moments before an approaching car goes past, lights will make the road beneath my feet disappear; the car in front of me becomes a large, intense yellow light that blinds me, while the road below me also turns yellow and more difficult to see. When I weigh 155lbs and the car hurtling towards me is 4000lbs, the road has no shoulder, and I’m blinded, it’s a scary scenario. That’s why people should always move over while driving.

     Conversely, we all have been the driver that forgot to turn off their brights. I personally will apologize out loud to the driver zooming past me, with no hopes of them hearing me or knowing who I am. Almost all of us sit in bed in our dark room, staring at our phones while awaiting sleep, knowing perfectly well that doing so lessens our chance of a good quality night of rest. Our towns have street lights that stay on all night, every day. Buildings and businesses shine security lights and have interior lights on in case of a break-in. Dormant cars sitting in parking lots have a small, flashing blue lights signifying auto-start ready and waiting. At this time of year, houses line the street with magnificent Christmas colors, adding more light to the night sky.

     A few days ago during the evening I was flying in an airplane through the Eastern US and Midwest, and the whole landscape was dotted with bright lights. Cities, cars, farmhouses- you name it, it was probably emitting light. I’ve never flown over the Bakken oil fields, but I’d imagine the light, as seen from the sky, is incredible. It begs the question- where can we go to escape light? We as humans have worked so hard for so long to avoid and tame the darkness that we have succeeded, magnificently. Many places in the US you can step outside in the middle of the night and go for a walk without bringing any extra light with you. So, where is there left?

     White Shield is one of those places. On a clear night, I’ll put my headlamp on, wrap my LED light around my ankle, and run out the door. I’ll run a half mile or so and be out in the country. Despite this being the main highway, all is quiet. No cars, no towns, no traffic lights. As I run, I become increasingly aware of the multitude of stars sitting calmly above my head, twinkling on a cold winters night. I turn off the light attached to my forehead. Dark blackness comes rushing into my face, temporarily blanking my vision. Slowly items start coming into view- farmhouse lights two miles away, the dim glow of flaring to the far west, and the electric pad 4 miles up the road. My legs are now the same color as the air around them, and I can’t tell one from the other. My shoes are hitting the road, but I can see neither. What does illuminate most brilliantly around me, though, is the sky. Millions of stars open up above me, and the milky way cuts a dense, glimmering line through the middle of the half-sphere that is the night sky. I try to follow the whole milky way with my eyes, but I arch my head so far back that I end up losing my balance and almost falling on the road. It’s beautiful.

     Running in the dark can be quite scary, too. There have been inklings around town for almost a year now that a resident mountain lion has been lurking. There have been supposed sightings, confirmed first-hand by folks, but never confirmed when followed up on by law enforcement. Often when I shut off my running light, I become painfully aware that I am in the middle of the country, with absolutely no protections at all, and a mountain lion could be sitting in the ditch 10 yards in front of me and I would have no idea, despite their being no crops, no trees, and no anything for it to hide behind- it’s just that dark. This will entice me to occasionally turn on my headlamp and do a little spin while I’m running, looking into the farmland for any sign that my light is being reflected back by a small pair of eyes. On rare occasion I do see eyes in the field, and while my heart rate spikes to about 400 and I start wishing I could’ve told my family I love them one last time, it usually ends up being a rabbit or deer. 

     The light that we see the least of during the winter is the sun. After months of only seeing the sun a few hours a day, if at all, we sit around and wait for those summer days where we can go out for a run at 9pm and the sun is still shining in the northwestern sky. Who would hate such a life-giving time of year? But alas, I find myself coming to enjoy those late-night or early morning runs, where all is quiet and dark. There’s a certain sense of peace in the deadness of winter on the prairie that can’t be mimicked anywhere else. The beauty of it grows on me with each run. There’s no way that I’ll miss the cold and dark once the days start getting longer, but a part of me will still be running in the dark, staring up at the starry sky, each bright light like a candle, reminding us and allowing us to think deeply about things that matter. The road, much like the sky, has no end as it undulates through the open land, and my thoughts will still be floating there, on a calm, cold night, in the middle of nowhere, far from any of the powerful lights.  

Thursday, November 8, 2018

North Dakota State Cross Country 2018- An Analysis of the Boys Race

This year the high school state cross country meet was held on October 27th in Jamestown, North Dakota. The race was at Parkhurst Recreation Area north of town, on a perfect weather day. The course is a mixture of prairie and woods, with little-to-no hills throughout the course. This combination led to many fast times in all of the races. Here's a quick recap of the races:

Class A Boys: Sean Korsmo (Bismarck High) pulled off what many believed to be an upset in this race, running 15:46 to defeat predicted winner Brody Yoder (Dickinson), who ran 15:49 for 2nd place. There were just under 30 runners under 17 minutes- a pretty good day!

The team race was not close, with a very young Williston squad running away with an almost 30-point victory over Bismarck Century (58-87).

Class B Boys: To no one's surprise, Isaac Huber (Edgeley/Kulm) won the Class B Boys race handily, running 15:49, 17 seconds ahead of 2nd place Robert White (New Town).

The team race was also anti-climatic, with New Town winning their 7th straight title. They scored 47 points to 2nd place Hillsboro/Central Valley's 103.

Class A Girls: In the Class A Girls' race, Meghan Ford (Jamestown) finished off an incredibly impressive season with a sub-18 5k time, winning the state meet by 30 seconds (17:57). 2nd place was Kayla Ogle of newly-Class A Watford City in a time of 18:27.

The team race was the Fargo Davies show. En route to winning their third straight title, they scored 66 points to the 118 points of Grand Forks Central.

Class B Girls: This race, more than any other, had the most questions going into it. There was no clear favorite in the individual, and it quickly turned into a two-person duel. In the end, Reagan Baesler (H/CV) won her third title in a row with a quick time of 18:41, with Lana Krack (Thompson) just behind in 18:45.

The team title going into the meet was also very much in doubt. In the end, Hillsboro/Central Valley pulled off the Class B Girls sweep of titles, winning their 8th consecutive team title with 102 points (the only race of the day with the winning team over 100 points), with Rugby close behind in second with 120 points.

Below is the analysis of the two boys races. The Girls races analyses can be found here.
Last year's analysis can be found here.
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Class B Boys:
In the Class B Boys race there were 291 athletes representing 47 different teams. This is a decrease of two runners and an increase of two teams from last year. Similar to the Class B Girls race, there was not a continuation of the increase in participation numbers seen earlier in the 2010s. However, this was the second year in a row of having almost 300 runners on the start line of the state meet. Here are the numbers:

Year       Runners       Teams
2004       157               27
2005       149               27
2006       180               30
2007       183               31
2008       188               32
2009       176               34
2010       185               35
2011       171               36
2012       191               36
2013       207               35
2014       221               40
2015       247               45
2016       265               49
2017       293               45
2018       291               47




As you can see in the chart, both the number of teams and the number of athletes have hit abrupt high points, and so this begs the question: have we seen the top? Or is this yet to come? I don't know, but we'll see over the next few years if the number of athletes eclipses 300. Putting 300 runners on the start line is no simple feat, as the first quarter mile needs to be very wide to accommodate everybody, not to mention the wear on the ground a race like that imposes.

Next, we'll break down some of the data for the race itself. Here is the grade-by-grade breakdown of the top 40 boys:
Seniors- 11 (last year 7)
Juniors- 12 (last year 11)
Sophomores- 9 (last year 12)
Freshmen- 5 (last year 8)
8th Graders- 3 (last year 2)
7th Graders- 0 (last year 0)

Ok, this is fascinating. Last year there were 11 juniors, this year there were 11 seniors. Last year there were 12 sophs, this year there were 12 juniors. Last year there were 8 freshmen, this year there were 9 sophs. Looks like these Class B athletes were incredibly consistent over the last two years.

Additionally, this is a pretty old group of runners. This data doesn't even show that 9 of those 11 seniors were in the top 20! So, there is a lot of talent on the way out, but also a very strong core for next year. Class B is set to be quite competitive over the next few years.

Now let's look at how last year's re-score of the state meet panned out this year:
Predicted 2018                               Actual 2018             
1.) New Town 67                           1.) New Town 47
2.) Hillsboro/Central Valley 122   2.) H/CV 103
3.) Rugby 137                               3.) Bowman County 196
4.) Bowman County 204               4.) Griggs Co. Central 206
5.) Carrington 307                         5.) Grafton 260

It looks here like New Town, H/CV, and Bowman County all took care of business this year. GCC and Grafton were both predicted in the top 10 last year, with over 300 points, but they stepped up into the top 5 this year. Rugby did not meet predictions, placing 6th with 280 points. Last year I conjectured that Rugby could be a 2019 state title contender with their young team, but I'm not so sure about that anymore. Carrington also did not meet predictions, placing 29th with 760 points. Overall though, predictions were fairly close in most cases.

Now, we'll take all of the seniors out of this year's state meet and re-score it.
Actual 2018:                   Predicted 2019:
1.) New Town 47           1.) New Town 104
2.) H/CV 103                 2.) H/CV 117
3.) Bowman Co. 196     3.) Griggs Co. Central 150
4.) GCC 206                  4.) Bowman Co. 160
5.) Grafton 260              5.) Grafton 197

This shows a few important notes:
1.) New Town is vulnerable next year, for the first time in many years. They are graduating some top guys, and while they have shown they are very good at developing talent year after year, Hillsboro/Central Valley will also have a strong team next year. To show how close these teams are shaping up to be, here's the predicted finishing places of their first seven runners next year:
New Town     1, 14, 16, 28, 45, 66, 85
Hillsboro/CV 5, 8,   17, 38, 49, 64, 95
From this list, it is clear that either of these teams could win or lose state simply by one runner having a great or terrible day.
2.) There are three good teams rounding out the top five, and they could finish in any order. Fun fact: Griggs County Central is actually the first team predicted to have all five runners finish, even ahead of New Town and Hillsboro; they just don't have anybody in the top ten, whereas the other schools do. Grafton has solid pack of 3 boys in places 20-30, and Bowman County has their first four runners in by 36th place.
3.) There is a steep gap to the next schools. Thompson (265) and Stanley (278) are on the outside looking in, both with firepower up front (top ten runners), but not much depth (5th runners coming around 100th place).

Last thought on the Class B race: is Isaac Huber one of the best Class B runners in state history? He soloed a 15:49 this fall, after easily winning the 1600 and 3200 at state track last spring. I wouldn't be surprised to see one or both of those state records fall this upcoming spring. 

Next up is the Class A Boys. Scroll down all the way for the comparison of the two division.
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Class A Boys:
In the Class A Boys race, there were 186 runners on 20 different teams. Last year there were 175 runners on 19 teams. If you add one team (Watford City) and their 10 athletes they ran, it comes out to be pretty much the same as last year. Class A teams usually fill up all of their 10 spots, so the number of runners doesn't fluctuate all that much. Combine that with not having to worrying about co-ops, and the number of teams doesn't change much either.

As for the race itself, it became a duel between eventual winner Sean Korsmo (BHS) and runner-up Brody Yoder (DHS), both under 15:50. Even more impressive, perhaps, is Williston winning the team title by 30 points without a single senior in their top 5. Here's the breakdown of the top 40 boys:
Seniors- 11 (last year 7)
Juniors- 10 (last year 11)
Sophomores- 14 (last year 12)
Freshmen- 2 (last year 8)
8th Graders- 2 (last year 2)
7th Graders- 1 (last year 0)

A couple things really stand out to me here.
1.) Very heavy on the upperclass side here. Very few 7th-9th grade runners.
2.) 8 of those 14 sophomores were in the top 20, including the first and second place finishers. The top ten is setting up to be incredible in two years.
3.) The 10th place runner was an 8th grader from Williston, running 16:23. That's just crazy.

Here's how the predictions last year panned out this year:
Predicted 2018:                     Actual 2018:
1.) Williston 46                     1.) Williston 58
2.) Bismarck Legacy 75        2.) Bismarck Century 87
3.) Bismarck Century 93      3.) Bismarck Legacy 94
4.) Fargo North 126              4.) Bismarck High 149
5.) Bismarck High 182         5.) Fargo North 164
6.) Fargo Davies 186

Thoughts:
1.) The top five teams were the same, just slightly rearranged and with pretty similar scores. This was a good predictor.
2.) The WDA really cleaned up this year. Top four places at state.
3.) There were races at state this year where the winning team failed to go under 100 points, but in this race there was 3 under 100. Looking closer at this year's results, every school in the top 3 had all five scorers in the top 31. In fact, every school in the top 3 had six runners in before any other school had five.

Now, we will remove all seniors from this year's state meet and re-score it.
Actual 2018:                 Predicted 2019:
1.) Williston 58             1.) Williston 44
2.) Bis Century 87         2.) Bis Century 65
3.) Bis Legacy 94          3.) Bis Legacy 147
4.) Bis High 149           4.) Bis High 153
5.) Fargo North 164      5.) Grand Forks Red River 199

Thoughts:
1.) This will be a two-horse race next year. Williston and Bismarck Century will both have programs that could contend for a state title in any given year, and they happen to meet up in the same year. Here's how close they are setting up:
Williston: 3, 6, 8, 10, 17, 52, 57, 63
Bis Cent: 4, 11, 12, 15, 23, 24, 40
Williston has much more firepower up front, but Bismarck Century has much more depth. Williston has no room for error outside of their top 5, but Bismarck Century will need their 4 and 5 runners farther up in order to win. Another thing to keep in mind is that Williston's 6, 7, and 8 runners are two sophomores and one junior, all of whom could show that incredible improvement that we've seen from Williston runners in the past.
2.) WDA dominance continues. It's a pretty good bet that there will be 4 WDA squads in the top 5. You know, this year there was only 4 EDC runners in the top 25. That means 21 of the top 25 runners at the state meet came from the WDA. That's incredible.
3.) Who will win state next year? Korsmo and Yoder are both sophomores running sub-16 minutes 5ks in cross country. They'll be fun to watch over the next few years. Also, don't sleep on this year's 4th place Micade Shumway (Williston), who ran 16:03 this year as a junior.
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 Last but not least, comparing Class A and Class B. The chart below averages the top 10 finishing times of the Class B and Class A races dating back to 2003. The percent next to each is the percent difference between the two divisions. We can assume all differences to be Class A > Class B, because no state meet dating back to 2003 has had a better average top ten time for Class B over Class A. There are many reasons for that: location, facilities, teammates to run with and push, coaching, financials, etc.

Year      Class A     Class B   % Difference
2018     16:08.3    16:27.9        2.0%
2017     16:16.8    16:36.7        2.0%
2016     16:03.6    16:27.4        2.5%
2015     16:15.8    16:58.0        4.3%
2014     16:15.1    16:53.0        3.9%
2013     16:16.7    17:05.7        5.0%
2012     16:07.8    17:19.4        7.4%
2011     15:59.0    17:13.3        7.7%
2010     16:52.1    17:34.4        4.2%
2009     16:12.1    17:06.3        5.6%
2008     16:39.9    17:19.5        4.0%
2007     16:10.6    16:38.7        2.9%
2006     16:29.5    17:09.1        4.0%
2005     17:06.5    17:23.6        1.7%
2004     16:53.0    17:49.5        5.6% 
2003     16:19.0    17:10.0        5.2% (overall avg. 4.3%)

As shown above, for both Class A and Class B this was a strong year. Class B had their second fastest average since 2003, trailing only 2016, while Class A had their 4th fastest since 2003. Class B also was much closer to Class A than the overall average, a sign of how strong that division has become in the last few years.  Before 2016, Class B had never averaged under 16:30 for their 10 runners. Now they've done it 3 years in a row. Also, for the last three years, the difference between the top 10 class A runners and top 10 class B runners has been less than 3%. Keep in mind that both divisions have been sending athletes D-1 in the last few years. A few (not all) examples:
Hunter Lucas (Class A)- U of MN
Leif Eversen (Class A)- Boise State
Ryan Wheeling (Class B)- Oklahoma State
Chace Hale (Class B)- Kansas
Things are looking good for the state the next few years.
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So there's some stats on the state meet this year! I REALLY wish that the NDHSAA would put in some timing mats at miles 1 and 2 on the course, because people like me would LOVE to analyze race data like that, but alas maybe we'll get there someday...

Thanks for reading!

North Dakota State Cross Country 2018- An Analysis of the Girls Race

This year the high school state cross country meet was held on October 27th in Jamestown, North Dakota. The race was at Parkhurst Recreation Area north of town, on a perfect weather day. The course is a mixture of prairie and woods, with little-to-no hills throughout the course. This combination led to many fast times in all of the races. Here's a quick recap of the races:

Class A Boys: Sean Korsmo (Bismarck High) pulled off what many believed to be an upset in this race, running 15:46 to defeat predicted winner Brody Yoder (Dickinson), who ran 15:49 for 2nd place. There were just under 30 runners under 17 minutes- a pretty good day!

The team race was not close, with a very young Williston squad running away with an almost 30-point victory over Bismarck Century (58-87).

Class B Boys: To no one's surprise, Isaac Huber (Edgeley/Kulm) won the Class B Boys race handily, running 15:49, 17 seconds ahead of 2nd place Robert White (New Town).

The team race was also anti-climatic, with New Town winning their 7th straight title. They scored 47 points to 2nd place Hillsboro/Central Valley's 103.

Class A Girls: In the Class A Girls' race, Meghan Ford (Jamestown) finished off an incredibly impressive season with a sub-18 5k time, winning the state meet by 30 seconds (17:57). 2nd place was Kayla Ogle of newly-Class A Watford City in a time of 18:27.

The team race was the Fargo Davies show. En route to winning their third straight title, they scored 66 points to the 118 points of Grand Forks Central.

Class B Girls: This race, more than any other, had the most questions going into it. There was no clear favorite in the individual, and it quickly turned into a two-person duel. In the end, Reagan Baesler (H/CV) won her third title in a row with a quick time of 18:41, with Lana Krack (Thompson) just behind in 18:45.

The team title going into the meet was also very much in doubt. In the end, Hillsboro/Central Valley pulled off the Class B Girls sweep of titles, winning their 8th consecutive team title with 102 points (the only race of the day with the winning team over 100 points), with Rugby close behind in second with 120 points.

Below is the analysis of the two Girls races. The Boys races analyses can be found here.
Last year's analysis can be found here.
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Class B Girls:
This year there were 243 athletes representing 46 different teams. This means that over the past 4 years the number of teams and athletes has changed little, from the massive increase during 2010-2014. Has the Class B girls division reached carrying capacity? I should mention that Watford City was Class B last year and was Class A this year, but they only ran 7 runners at state this year, which would put this year's Class B total at 250, still 10 less than last year. Has the second North Dakota running boom tapered off? I'm not sure, but the last four years for this race shows really no significant increase in participation. Here are the numbers:

Year   Runners      Teams
2004 144 25
2005 146 27
2006 153 28
2007 150 29
2008 179 30
2009 177 35
2010 172 41
2011 198 38
2012 196 37
2013 209 37
2014 208 39
2015 234 45
2016 223 47
2017 260 46
   2018          243             46
















































Here we can see that the number of teams has stagnated over the past few years, while the number of athletes still seems to be on the increase. We got this zig-zag pattern thing going on here for athlete numbers, so the trend would suggest that next year would see another increase in participation. I don't know, after the weather this October, maybe some kids won't come back! (Seriously though, can somebody explain the zig-zag pattern for athlete numbers?)

Next let's at some more data:

Here is the breakdown by grade of the top 40 girls:
Seniors- 6... (last year 4)
Juniors- 8... (last year 9)
Sophomores- 4... (last year 9)
Freshman- 5... (last year 8)
8th Graders- 11... (last year 5)
7th Graders- 6...  (last year 5)

Looking at this chart, it's clear that middle schoolers this year far outnumbered last year, while underclassman did not. In fact, there were 4 seventh-graders in the top 20 alone! Here's a cool tidbit: Kindred had a seventh-grader place 11th, one place and two seconds ahead of her teammate, also a seventh-grader. Dang.

Last year I took the state meet results, took out all the seniors, and re-scored the meet. Here are the predicted results this year versus what actually happened:
Predicted 2018:                      Actual 2018:
1.) Watford 115                      1.) H/CV 102
2.) H/CV 135                         2.) Rugby 120
3.) Rugby 166                        3.) May-Port CG 197
4.) New Town 250                 4.) Bowman County 218
5.) H/N/T 253                        5.) New Town 231

Now, at first this looks messy. BUT keep in mind that Watford City went Class A (and looking at the results they would have won Class B, but not by much), and the H/N/T coop broke up. Thompson took 8th on their own, while Hatton and Northwood coop-ed with Lairmore and took 17th. Other than that, it looks like MPCG and Bowman County stepped up their game. Also, there does seem to be a pattern emerging here that if you want to win state B girls, score at or below 100 points. Top 3 required sub-200, and low 200s is top 5.

Next, we take all of the seniors out of this year's state meet and re-score it as is. I can't take into account co-ops that will spontaneously combust at school board meetings, so we just hope for the best.
Actual 2018:                       Predicted 2019:
1.) H/CV 102                      1.) H/CV 89
2.) Rugby 120                     2.) Rugby 105
3.) MPCG 197                    3.) MPCG 168
4.) Bow. Co. 218                 4.) New Town 193
5.) New Town 231              5.) Bowman County 198
                                          6.) Kindred 234

Here's a quick overview of what this shows (and doesn't show):
1.) Hillsboro/Central Valley will again be the team to beat next year, but Rugby winning might not necessarily be a big upset.
2.) The battle for the west region title will be interesting. New Town has quietly been developing a strong women's team over the past couple of years, in the shadows of the historically-good boys program. However, Bowman County is never a good idea to bet against. It will be close!
3.) Looking into the numbers for 2019, Rugby and MP-CG both have their fifth runners ahead of Hillsboro's fifth runner (35 and 50, respectively, compared to 52). Hillsboro gets away with having two low sticks in Reagan Baesler and Jensyn Zink. Having two girls in the top ten will make them tough to beat, but Rugby's depth- having 7 runners in before Hillsboro's fifth- will be tough to match.
H/CV 1, 3, 13, 20, 52, 82
Rugby 5, 18, 22, 25, 35, 40, 49, 60
MPCG 24, 30, 31, 33, 50, 54
4.) May-Port CG has a pretty tight top 4 next year, and if those girls can work together and pull themselves all into the top 30, or even 25, they might have a shot at top 2.
5.) Every team in this year's top five is predicted to score lower next year. This is more proof of the aforementioned relatively young group of girls at state this year. 

Next up is Class A Girls. Scroll down to the bottom to see the comparison of the two divisions.

Class A Girls:
 There were 182 girls representing 19 different schools in this race, but since most Class A schools bring their allotted 10 runners to the state meet, the numbers for the Class A Girls Race changes very little from year to year, at least not enough to be statistically significant. For example, last year there were 176 runners, and Watford City joined and brought 7 runners with them this year.

First point I want to make: Watford City joined Class A this year and put 3 girls in the top 12. Pretty impressive. More impressive? They were all sisters.
2 Kayla Ogle 12 18:27
3 Hayley Ogle 10 18:37
12 Jaelyn Ogle 8 19:10
 Even though their fifth runner placed 116th, they still managed 6th place due to three low sticks. I know some Class B coaches that breathed a sign of relief that they went Class A this year!

As for the race itself, Fargo Davies ran away with this one by having runners come in at 4, 10, 11, 18, and 23. Having 4 of your 5 scores be all-state and your fifth runner just off the mark is pretty dang good. However, Fargo Davies relied heavily on seniors to lead the squad this year. Who will emerge next year?

Here's a question: which team was the first to have their 7th runner finish?

3rd place Minot. And they had no seniors in their top 5 at state this year.

Here's the breakdown of the top 40 by grade:
Seniors- 6 (last year 5)
Juniors- 9 (last year 5)
Sophomores- 12 (last year 11)
Freshmen- 9 (last year 10)
8th Graders- 2 (last year 7)
7th Graders- 2 (last year 2)

Looking at this list, two things are immediately clear:
1.) Class A was much older than Class B this year.
2.) Class A was understandably deep this year as a result of all the older, experienced runners. In each of the three oldest grades, there were more girls this year than last.

Additionally, with many girls graduating this year or next year, this would suggest an advantage for strong, young teams in the next two years.

Here's how last year's predictions panned out this year:
Predicted 2018                                 Actual 2018 
1.) Fargo Davies 80                         1.) Fargo Davies 66
2.) Bismarck Century 82                 2.) Grand Forks Central 118
3.) Bismarck High 90                      3.) Minot 129
4.) Grand Forks Central 112           4.) Bismarck Century 181
5.) Minot 149                                  5.) Mandan 194

It seems that Fargo Davies, GFC, and Minot all did almost exactly as predicted. Bismarck Century under performed last year's predictions, while Bismarck High was off the map (they took 10th with 272 points). Just goes to show that anything can happen in the span of a year, but most patterns do follow pretty closely.

Now, we will remove all seniors from this year's state meet and re-score:
Actual 2018:                                Predicted 2019:
1.) Fargo Davies 66                     1.) Minot 106
2.) Grand Forks Central 118        2.) Fargo Davies 161
3.) Minot 129                               3.) Grand Forks Central 167
4.) Bismarck Century 181           4.) Bismarck Century 216
5.) Mandan 194                           5.) Fargo North 220
                                                    6.) West Fargo 225

Next year looks to be the return of the state champion Minot women's program. They have a lot of young girls running well this year, and if that continues, they should easily win next year. Here's an interesting tidbit: in the 2019 re-score, Minot's 8th runner comes in before any other team's number 5!

Also, it looks like Fargo Davies will be in a tough battle with Grand Forks Central over control of the EDC next year. Both teams have solid squads, but GFC will have more firepower up front, with the capabilities of 3 girls in the top 20 at state. We'll see what happens.

Last interesting note: taking out all of the seniors from last year's results would have girls from 12 different schools represented in the top 13 at the state meet. That's quite abnormal, and shows not only the depth across the state, but how widespread easily accessible modern training methods are now.

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Last but not least, comparing Class A and Class B. The chart below averages the top 10 finishing times of the Class B and Class A races dating back to 2003. The percent next to each is the percent difference between the two divisions. We can assume all differences to be Class A > Class B, because no state meet dating back to 2003 has had a better average top ten time for Class B over Class A. There are many reasons for that: location, facilities, teammates to run with and push, coaching, financials, etc.
Year        Class A             Class B             % Difference
2018       18:44.2              19:34.9                 4.3%
2017       18:37.8              19:15.4                 3.4%
2016       18:14.8              19:10.4                 5.1%
2015       14:42.2              15:04.6                 2.5%
2014       14:37.7              15:26.8                 5.6%
2013       14:48.7              15:30.3                 4.7%
2012       15:11.7              15:54.9                 4.7%
2011       14:39.8              15:25.9                 5.2%
2010       15:12.6              15:50.7                 4.2%
2009       15:06.0              15:41.3                 3.9%
2008       15:16.1              16:06.3                 5.5%
2007       14:57.1              15:32.3                 3.9%
2006       14:59.4              15:42.8                 4.8%
2005       15:54.1              16:11.6                 1.8%
2004       15:27.4              15:34.5                 0.8%
2003       15:12.2              15:21.8                 1.1% (overall avg 3.8%)

This year was fairly close to the long-term average, and both of the average times were the slowest since the move to 5k in 2016. The closest years, 2003-2005, Class B had some incredible athletes at the top who brought everyone else up with them.
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So there's some stats on the state meet this year! I REALLY wish that the NDHSAA would put in some timing mats at miles 1 and 2 on the course, because people like me would LOVE to analyze race data like that, but alas maybe we'll get there someday...

Thanks for reading!

Saturday, August 4, 2018

My First Marathon- The Maah Daah Hey Trail Marathon

BLLLRRRRRRR....BLLLLLRRRRRR....BLLLLLLLLRRRRRRR

I shut off my watch alarm. Too early. Set it for 5:20am, 10 extra minutes of sleep.

BLLLRRRRRRR...BLLLLLRRRRRR...BLLLLLLLLLLLRRRRR

I shut off my watch alarm. Blinking, I force myself to sit up. I blow my nose into the toilet paper I brought, and drank some water to clear out the drainage from my throat. My brain is a little hazy, but I gotta get moving.

A drop on my head.

I move around in my quiet, peaceful space- stretching out my stiff legs and breathing the cool air.

Another drop on my head.

I look up. The rainfly on my tent was resting firmly against the netting and sending wetness down onto my forehead. I unzip the tent and step outside. A dull light was in the sky (well before sunrise), and the heavy, thick air that can only come from the temperature dropping to the dewpoint settled low in the bottoms of the Little Missouri River Valley. My tent was covered in dew, along with the grass, bushes, and cottonwood trees surrounding me. A rabbit bounced away, and the local crickets and insects echoed the only noise for miles. The rowdy families at the camp from the night before couldn't be bothered this early, and no local ranchers were up and about yet. It was quiet.

I quickly pack my things into the pickup and eat a Clif bar and banana breakfast. I go through the daily rituals of brushing my teeth, putting on deodorant, taking a vitamin, and putting on running clothes. I throw everything recklessly into the pickup and beginning driving down the lonely scoria gravel road, my speed staying low to avoid popping a tire like last time I was on badlands gravel.

I go past the Bully Pulpit golf course, seeing the ambitious morning crowd already out and about on this well-watered, manicured waste of land. Up the steep hill takes me to the top of the badlands, and beyond to the east, a sun peaking out over the buttes. The road is empty.

I turn and head into Medora, seeing only a few vehicles, headed likely for the golf course. Another left turn takes me through Medora and to the entrance of the Medora campground, where many vehicles were parking the gravel lot. Fit-looking adults with trail shoes and small running packs lined up at a porta-potty, with three Medora Musical vans lined up by the road. I was in the right spot. Well, it might end up being the wrong spot!

"Vans for the marathon leave in four minutes. Vans for the marathon leave in four minutes."

People are locking their cars now, taking last-minute bathroom breaks. Filling up water bags, stashing food, putting jerseys on, pinning numbers on, removing warm clothes on a cool morning, locking car doors- everything being done very last minute. I got all my stuff ready and headed over to the vans. I took a seat in the empty back van, but as it didn't fill they moved me to another van towards the front. Then, we were off. Our destination was Wannagan Campground, about 26.2 trail miles north of where I parked.

As we drove, I looked at the rear-view mirror of the vehicle and watched the late-July morning temperature drop down to 46F. I talked with some of the passengers about life. Turns out that many of these runners are from outside of North Dakota, looking for tough trail running. They definitely found it.

We arrive about an hour and a half before the race starts, because the vans have to go back and pick up the other races and bring them to their start lines as well. This gave us time to talk, hang out, go to the bathroom, stress, read the paper, and generally chill out. One lady I talked to hiked up to the top of the switchbacks to check out the view.

I learned from this time that trail running is a very unique community. Many of the people I talked to have done lots of trail races, or long distances in general. Many of the people I talked to had decent jobs and sounded like a decent education. Many of the people I talked to were from out of state. The vibe was completely different from any other race I've ever been to in North Dakota; then again, the Badlands themselves are very different from anywhere else in North Dakota. The Badlands have always been a place to destroy even the hardiest of souls. Heck, some of the tribes of the Northern Plains used to pick off US Military members through guerrilla warfare in the badlands while the troops tried to find any way through the mess of buttes and gorges on their way to establishing military posts. 

Before the start of the race, we were treated to the national anthem. It was powerful- here in a remote reach of the badlands, far from any sense of civilization, with the quiet peacefulness of morning stretching in all corners, a woman sang a beautiful anthem through a speaker, her voice disappearing into the openness. We all stood quiet and attentive until it was done, while a US flag was hanging from the fence line dividing the campground from the national grasslands. It was perfect.

 The starter's stopwatch showed 8:00am, so it was time to go. My race plan was simple: the first few miles were going to be rugged, but after that there was a decent stretch without too much elevation gain, so I would push the first few miles to get a gap, and then coast through the flatter section, leaving as much energy as possible for the last 8 miles, which would likely prove to be difficult. I had a secondary goal that was also simple in design but hard in practice: spend as little time as possible walking.

During the first few miles I rolled the downhills and very gently jogged up the steep sections, having to stop and walk twice in order to not roast my body early on. I was hitting close to 8:00/mile on the uphill mile and 7:00/mile on the downhill miles. At one point, I noticed a spot where, just a few weeks earlier, my friend and I had sat down right there and rested for a little bit during the heat of the day, only a few miles remaining in our hike, but very dead at that moment. It felt like a completely different time.

I continued onto the less rugged Buffalo Gap trail, where I settled into a comfortable 7:30-8:00/mile pace. I was well aware the course record was 7:51/mile average, but that pace is literally what I do on slow easy days, and I couldn't really make myself go any slower- it felt so comfortable and easy. On occasion I would still walk uphill to conserve energy for later. I didn't want to dilly-dally too much, because I knew that there was a woman not too far behind; I could see her whenever I came to the top of a big valley and looked back behind me. This light-colored shirt slowly eating away the same miles I had just covered. I feared for a 'tortoise and hare' scenario.

I arrived at the first checkpoint, about halfway through mile 10. The sun was high in the sky, and a small tent canvas was set up right by the gravel back road. Some smiling faces milled about in the artificial shade, with their vehicles lined up along the road. There were coolers of water and some kind of non-gatorade electrolyte mix, along with coolers filled with stuff that I really can't remember. I ate some grapes- trying not to wolf them down- and filled up the water pouch in my pack. After some polite conversation where I was panting out where I was from and what I did for a job while deliriously eating grapes, I grabbed a half a banana and started walking down the trail. I've never had any experience eating food during a race before, and I was worried about stomach problems in the middle of the badlands; I walked for probably a quarter mile before I arrived at a gate, lifted it up, walked through it, set it down, and started jogging again. My body felt sluggish and fat, but fortunately I couldn't see my opponent behind me yet.

I could now see the cars driving across the interstate in the distance, even though their sound wasn't yet hovering in the air. I came up past the start line of the half marathon race, complete with new arrows, red signs, and for the first time- shoe prints in the dirt. It was such a weird feeling seeing evidence of other human beings covering this same remote trail that I was. I pictured the leaders flying through the countryside, joggers and walkers towards the back. It brought back memories of my half marathon on this trail two years previous, when the guy who won pulled me through 5:45/mile pace for the first 6 miles and then I died and slowed down massively.

I came up to a creek crossing and immediately noticed how deep it was. After taking a few moments to decipher no easy, shallower route, I bit the bullet and went through water past my knees, walked across, and started up the steep hill on the other side. I looked left and saw in the not-too-far distance the second-place runner barging down a hill. And there- and there alone- is where the wheels began to fall off of my bus.

Within the next couple miles, the uphills became harder, the flats became harder, and the downhills became harder. My surroundings began to disappear, and the only thing that mattered now was putting one leg in front of the other, however that would be possible. My hips were sore, my legs were tired, and I was drinking a lot of my water because I was ravenously thirsty all the time. Every signpost was searched for a mile marker, and each mile was counted off analytically. I had a rough idea where the next checkpoint was, and I was desperately looking over each butte pass to see if this was finally when I could see my oasis.

Then I passed underneath the interstate. A tall, medium-long tunnel stood before me, and the only thing in between us was a cattle gate that had a sign reminding me I needed to shut it after I opened it. So I did, and I entered this perfection. There was a beautiful shade and a temperature drop of probably 10 degrees. A gentle breeze blew through the tunnel right into my face and onto my sweat-soaked shirt, cooling me off until I shivered and my body was covered in goosebumps. As I slowly walked, I put my hands up in the air and savored every single second. It was beautiful.

Then, just as soon as it started, it was over. I stepped into the light and was immediately reminded that this was a race, I was still technically first place, I had at least 8 or 9 miles left, and I was quickly dying. My average mile pace was slowing to around 10:00/mile, which is slower than I've ever ran anything in my life, and it was starting to scare me. My second and last checkpoint couldn't come soon enough.

I sat down in a chair, my first sit in hours. The gracious people of this checkpoint were showering me with help, questions, and compliments on my race thus far. As I downed more grapes and drank lots and lots of water, we saw the next person coming down the switchbacks on the hillside. I lamented.

You know, by this point, I was no longer worried about the course record, and I was no longer worried about winning- I just wanted to finish this mfing race.

I finished my 4th cup of water and ate some more grapes as my competitor came into camp. As I expected, she was all business. Some refills, some coke, and get on the road. It turns out that we left camp right around the same time. I just couldn't keep up. My legs no longer worked, and every step was a monumental struggle. Every mile was a combination of walking and running for different periods, trying to maximize my pace without dying. Lisa, the new first-placer, slowly pulled ahead further and further, until I could only see her in the distance. Then, she was gone.

I was all alone again. This was actually the same place that, two years ago, I had been dropped by the eventual winner (and course-record holder) of the half marathon, essentially being left to die in the middle of nowhere badlands. Each passing mile became slower and slower, 12:00/mile, 13:00/mile, 15:00/mile until I started looking behind me to see if anybody else was coming. Nobody was.

Every fiber of my being wanted to get to the junction where the Buffalo Gap Trail meets the Maah Daah Hey Trail again. After a tough climb, from this junction the trail stays mostly downhill all the way to the finish. I walked and jogged and worked and worked and hurt and wanted to quit and kept going and wanted to quit and kept going and ran and walked and made it to the top. I rejoiced and laughed and immediately started jogging downhill.

Then the cramps.

As I would jog, every now and again my hamstring would tighten up and give a little cramp, throwing a quick hitch in my step. Combine that with my exhaustion and sore everywhere, and multiple times I thought I wasn't gonna finish. Three times I had to stop and sit on the trail for a bit, trying to muster up any energy I could find to keep going.

With about a mile left, I finally made it to the bike path into Medora. I walked as far as I could before I came into sight of the finish line (it was a pride thing), then I started shuffling. Every step was barely raised off the ground, and my eyes were locked on the sign at the finish. My wife and her friends were there cheering, and I loved seeing them, but the only thing that mattered was crawling across the finish somehow. I shuffled and shuffled and shuffled and shuffled and shuffled and shuffled and groaned and strained and pushed and cramped and hurt and shuffled and

finished.*

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 I took off my hat and looked at it. A few small, round dark spots appeared on the brim, evidence of little specks of water falling from the overcast sky. My dusty shoes sat on the trail, while my sweaty butt sat on the prickly grass right next to it. I was on the side of a butte looking down on the bridge that I would have to cross under before finally getting on the road. Vehicles zoomed past on the pavement, likely not glancing to the badlands scenery to see any runners stopped in agony. No wind blew, no people came past, no horses ran- all was quiet. My arms and elbows were rested on my knees and my head fell down. I wanted to sleep, to rest. I didn't want to stand back up. The Maah Daah Hey trail, as it had done many times in my life, chewed me up, swallowed me, and s*** me back out. There was hardly anything left of me. I couldn't believe I signed up for this, and I had no idea how I was going to finish. I just wanted to get there.

A week later, I want more.   


*I finished second place in a time of 4 hours, 24 minutes. I realize now that I can't get by in a marathon with the kind of training I was doing during the summer (not a ton).