Class A Boys: Sean Korsmo (Bismarck High) pulled off what many believed to be an upset in this race, running 15:46 to defeat predicted winner Brody Yoder (Dickinson), who ran 15:49 for 2nd place. There were just under 30 runners under 17 minutes- a pretty good day!
The team race was not close, with a very young Williston squad running away with an almost 30-point victory over Bismarck Century (58-87).
Class B Boys: To no one's surprise, Isaac Huber (Edgeley/Kulm) won the Class B Boys race handily, running 15:49, 17 seconds ahead of 2nd place Robert White (New Town).
The team race was also anti-climatic, with New Town winning their 7th straight title. They scored 47 points to 2nd place Hillsboro/Central Valley's 103.
Class A Girls: In the Class A Girls' race, Meghan Ford (Jamestown) finished off an incredibly impressive season with a sub-18 5k time, winning the state meet by 30 seconds (17:57). 2nd place was Kayla Ogle of newly-Class A Watford City in a time of 18:27.
The team race was the Fargo Davies show. En route to winning their third straight title, they scored 66 points to the 118 points of Grand Forks Central.
Class B Girls: This race, more than any other, had the most questions going into it. There was no clear favorite in the individual, and it quickly turned into a two-person duel. In the end, Reagan Baesler (H/CV) won her third title in a row with a quick time of 18:41, with Lana Krack (Thompson) just behind in 18:45.
The team title going into the meet was also very much in doubt. In the end, Hillsboro/Central Valley pulled off the Class B Girls sweep of titles, winning their 8th consecutive team title with 102 points (the only race of the day with the winning team over 100 points), with Rugby close behind in second with 120 points.
Below is the analysis of the two boys races. The Girls races analyses can be found here.
Last year's analysis can be found here.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Class B Boys:
In the Class B Boys race there were 291 athletes representing 47 different teams. This is a decrease of two runners and an increase of two teams from last year. Similar to the Class B Girls race, there was not a continuation of the increase in participation numbers seen earlier in the 2010s. However, this was the second year in a row of having almost 300 runners on the start line of the state meet. Here are the numbers:
Year Runners Teams
2004 157 27
2005 149 27
2006 180 30
2008 188 32
2009 176 34
2010 185 35
2011 171 36
2012 191 36
2013 207 35
2014 221 40
2015 247 45
2016 265 49
2017 293 45
2018 291 47
As you can see in the chart, both the number of teams and the number of athletes have hit abrupt high points, and so this begs the question: have we seen the top? Or is this yet to come? I don't know, but we'll see over the next few years if the number of athletes eclipses 300. Putting 300 runners on the start line is no simple feat, as the first quarter mile needs to be very wide to accommodate everybody, not to mention the wear on the ground a race like that imposes.
Next, we'll break down some of the data for the race itself. Here is the grade-by-grade breakdown of the top 40 boys:
Seniors- 11 (last year 7)
Juniors- 12 (last year 11)
Sophomores- 9 (last year 12)
Freshmen- 5 (last year 8)
8th Graders- 3 (last year 2)
7th Graders- 0 (last year 0)
Ok, this is fascinating. Last year there were 11 juniors, this year there were 11 seniors. Last year there were 12 sophs, this year there were 12 juniors. Last year there were 8 freshmen, this year there were 9 sophs. Looks like these Class B athletes were incredibly consistent over the last two years.
Additionally, this is a pretty old group of runners. This data doesn't even show that 9 of those 11 seniors were in the top 20! So, there is a lot of talent on the way out, but also a very strong core for next year. Class B is set to be quite competitive over the next few years.
Now let's look at how last year's re-score of the state meet panned out this year:
Predicted 2018 Actual 2018
1.) New Town 67 1.) New Town 47
2.) Hillsboro/Central Valley 122 2.) H/CV 103
3.) Rugby 137 3.) Bowman County 196
4.) Bowman County 204 4.) Griggs Co. Central 206
5.) Carrington 307 5.) Grafton 260
It looks here like New Town, H/CV, and Bowman County all took care of business this year. GCC and Grafton were both predicted in the top 10 last year, with over 300 points, but they stepped up into the top 5 this year. Rugby did not meet predictions, placing 6th with 280 points. Last year I conjectured that Rugby could be a 2019 state title contender with their young team, but I'm not so sure about that anymore. Carrington also did not meet predictions, placing 29th with 760 points. Overall though, predictions were fairly close in most cases.
Now, we'll take all of the seniors out of this year's state meet and re-score it.
Actual 2018: Predicted 2019:
1.) New Town 47 1.) New Town 104
2.) H/CV 103 2.) H/CV 117
3.) Bowman Co. 196 3.) Griggs Co. Central 150
4.) GCC 206 4.) Bowman Co. 160
5.) Grafton 260 5.) Grafton 197
This shows a few important notes:
1.) New Town is vulnerable next year, for the first time in many years. They are graduating some top guys, and while they have shown they are very good at developing talent year after year, Hillsboro/Central Valley will also have a strong team next year. To show how close these teams are shaping up to be, here's the predicted finishing places of their first seven runners next year:
New Town 1, 14, 16, 28, 45, 66, 85
Hillsboro/CV 5, 8, 17, 38, 49, 64, 95
From this list, it is clear that either of these teams could win or lose state simply by one runner having a great or terrible day.
2.) There are three good teams rounding out the top five, and they could finish in any order. Fun fact: Griggs County Central is actually the first team predicted to have all five runners finish, even ahead of New Town and Hillsboro; they just don't have anybody in the top ten, whereas the other schools do. Grafton has solid pack of 3 boys in places 20-30, and Bowman County has their first four runners in by 36th place.
3.) There is a steep gap to the next schools. Thompson (265) and Stanley (278) are on the outside looking in, both with firepower up front (top ten runners), but not much depth (5th runners coming around 100th place).
Last thought on the Class B race: is Isaac Huber one of the best Class B runners in state history? He soloed a 15:49 this fall, after easily winning the 1600 and 3200 at state track last spring. I wouldn't be surprised to see one or both of those state records fall this upcoming spring.
Next up is the Class A Boys. Scroll down all the way for the comparison of the two division.
---------------------------------------
Class A Boys:
In the Class A Boys race, there were 186 runners on 20 different teams. Last year there were 175 runners on 19 teams. If you add one team (Watford City) and their 10 athletes they ran, it comes out to be pretty much the same as last year. Class A teams usually fill up all of their 10 spots, so the number of runners doesn't fluctuate all that much. Combine that with not having to worrying about co-ops, and the number of teams doesn't change much either.
As for the race itself, it became a duel between eventual winner Sean Korsmo (BHS) and runner-up Brody Yoder (DHS), both under 15:50. Even more impressive, perhaps, is Williston winning the team title by 30 points without a single senior in their top 5. Here's the breakdown of the top 40 boys:
Seniors- 11 (last year 7)
Juniors- 10 (last year 11)
Sophomores- 14 (last year 12)
Freshmen- 2 (last year 8)
8th Graders- 2 (last year 2)
7th Graders- 1 (last year 0)
A couple things really stand out to me here.
1.) Very heavy on the upperclass side here. Very few 7th-9th grade runners.
2.) 8 of those 14 sophomores were in the top 20, including the first and second place finishers. The top ten is setting up to be incredible in two years.
3.) The 10th place runner was an 8th grader from Williston, running 16:23. That's just crazy.
Here's how the predictions last year panned out this year:
Predicted 2018: Actual 2018:
1.) Williston 46 1.) Williston 58
2.) Bismarck Legacy 75 2.) Bismarck Century 87
3.) Bismarck Century 93 3.) Bismarck Legacy 94
4.) Fargo North 126 4.) Bismarck High 149
5.) Bismarck High 182 5.) Fargo North 164
6.) Fargo Davies 186
Thoughts:
1.) The top five teams were the same, just slightly rearranged and with pretty similar scores. This was a good predictor.
2.) The WDA really cleaned up this year. Top four places at state.
3.) There were races at state this year where the winning team failed to go under 100 points, but in this race there was 3 under 100. Looking closer at this year's results, every school in the top 3 had all five scorers in the top 31. In fact, every school in the top 3 had six runners in before any other school had five.
Now, we will remove all seniors from this year's state meet and re-score it.
Actual 2018: Predicted 2019:
1.) Williston 58 1.) Williston 44
2.) Bis Century 87 2.) Bis Century 65
3.) Bis Legacy 94 3.) Bis Legacy 147
4.) Bis High 149 4.) Bis High 153
5.) Fargo North 164 5.) Grand Forks Red River 199
Thoughts:
1.) This will be a two-horse race next year. Williston and Bismarck Century will both have programs that could contend for a state title in any given year, and they happen to meet up in the same year. Here's how close they are setting up:
Williston: 3, 6, 8, 10, 17, 52, 57, 63
Bis Cent: 4, 11, 12, 15, 23, 24, 40
Williston has much more firepower up front, but Bismarck Century has much more depth. Williston has no room for error outside of their top 5, but Bismarck Century will need their 4 and 5 runners farther up in order to win. Another thing to keep in mind is that Williston's 6, 7, and 8 runners are two sophomores and one junior, all of whom could show that incredible improvement that we've seen from Williston runners in the past.
2.) WDA dominance continues. It's a pretty good bet that there will be 4 WDA squads in the top 5. You know, this year there was only 4 EDC runners in the top 25. That means 21 of the top 25 runners at the state meet came from the WDA. That's incredible.
3.) Who will win state next year? Korsmo and Yoder are both sophomores running sub-16 minutes 5ks in cross country. They'll be fun to watch over the next few years. Also, don't sleep on this year's 4th place Micade Shumway (Williston), who ran 16:03 this year as a junior.
-----------------
Last but not least, comparing Class A and Class B. The chart below averages the top 10 finishing times of the Class B and Class A races dating back to 2003. The percent next to each is the percent difference between the two divisions. We can assume all differences to be Class A > Class B, because no state meet dating back to 2003 has had a better average top ten time for Class B over Class A. There are many reasons for that: location, facilities, teammates to run with and push, coaching, financials, etc.
Year Class A Class B % Difference
2018 16:08.3 16:27.9 2.0%
2017 16:16.8 16:36.7 2.0%
2018 16:08.3 16:27.9 2.0%
2017 16:16.8 16:36.7 2.0%
2016 16:03.6 16:27.4 2.5%
2015 16:15.8 16:58.0 4.3%
2014 16:15.1 16:53.0 3.9%
2013 16:16.7 17:05.7 5.0%
2012 16:07.8 17:19.4 7.4%
2011 15:59.0 17:13.3 7.7%
2010 16:52.1 17:34.4 4.2%
2009 16:12.1 17:06.3 5.6%
2008 16:39.9 17:19.5 4.0%
2007 16:10.6 16:38.7 2.9%
2006 16:29.5 17:09.1 4.0%
2005 17:06.5 17:23.6 1.7%
2004 16:53.0 17:49.5 5.6%
2003 16:19.0 17:10.0 5.2% (overall avg. 4.3%)As shown above, for both Class A and Class B this was a strong year. Class B had their second fastest average since 2003, trailing only 2016, while Class A had their 4th fastest since 2003. Class B also was much closer to Class A than the overall average, a sign of how strong that division has become in the last few years. Before 2016, Class B had never averaged under 16:30 for their 10 runners. Now they've done it 3 years in a row. Also, for the last three years, the difference between the top 10 class A runners and top 10 class B runners has been less than 3%. Keep in mind that both divisions have been sending athletes D-1 in the last few years. A few (not all) examples:
Hunter Lucas (Class A)- U of MN
Leif Eversen (Class A)- Boise State
Ryan Wheeling (Class B)- Oklahoma State
Chace Hale (Class B)- Kansas
Things are looking good for the state the next few years.
--------------------
So there's some stats on the state meet this year! I REALLY wish that the NDHSAA would put in some timing mats at miles 1 and 2 on the course, because people like me would LOVE to analyze race data like that, but alas maybe we'll get there someday...
Thanks for reading!
No comments:
Post a Comment