The worker set down a bowl in front of me. It had pasta, cheese, green onions, and sliced grilled chicken. See, I'm a sucker for the Wisconsin Mac & Cheese at Noodles & Company. As I forked down my meal as fast as possible, I noticed around me hockey guys, dance girls, college kids, young parents, and everything in-between. I never ate at this place when I lived in Grand Forks, likely because it didn't exist then. I quickly ran outside and braved the intense Eastern North Dakota cold to get to my pickup. I drove down Columbia Rd and was in awe at the lack of road construction and orange cones that usually dot lanes by the hospital. I pulled up to the High Performance Center on the campus of the University of North Dakota. This facility was opened up during my last year of college, but we never we able to host a meet in it. Now, I walk up to the doors into the second year of the UND Home Indoor Open.
Spectators are funneled through a different line than the coaches and athletes. I humbly follow the green and white flags into the right doors and up to the money desk. I pay my dues, get sharpied on the hand, and cross underneath the flags into the coaches and athletes area--much like most of the other parents and fans had done. I look around the building. There are new stone seating areas, ready to be filled in with spectator stadium seats. Parents dot the landscape of the seating area, most UND, some Concordia, and a minority from other places. On the track, some girls are working their way into the blocks for what I assume to be a 60-meter dash race. The place goes quiet while the starter puts his arm into the air and shoots the gun. I quickly shuffle across the track over towards the marshaling area where two of my former teammates are handing out hip-stickers to the athletes. I join them and put myself to work.
One-by-one athletes come up to get their numbers for their races. These teams are mostly D2 schools from around North Dakota, and I start realizing over time that I recognize almost nobody. In fact, the only people I'm recognizing are last year's seniors from my high school track region who now run in college. I no longer see athletes that I raced against in college but rather athletes that my high school team has competed against in the past. I realize I've been delegated to the past. I look at my two former teammates, one of whom is in his last year of college, and the other who is a teacher in Minnesota. My former cross country coach is retiring, my former head track coach is retiring, and the jumps coach while I was a student-athlete has moved to a different university. It's a new generation.
Change is hard for all of us. For me, the transition into the post-college world has been particularly difficult. It's easy in college to pour heart and soul into cross country and track, and boy did I do just that! Honestly, even though I was taking classes, involved with FCA, and part of the UND Leadership Academy, XC and Track were the most important part of UND. I spent countless hours in the locker room playing foosball and video games, sped through countless miles with the team, and made countless memories on trips that I didn't have to pay for. My classes were mathematics and my job was running.
But things change. I have a job that keeps me busy and tired. I have a marriage that keeps me busy and tired (love you Ingrid!!!). I live in such a remote place that travel... keeps me busy and tired. Getting in a quality 30 minute run has become a novelty recently, and the 70-80 miles per week of college has become a memory. Many of the teammates I ran with in college struggle to maintain the sort of running they did in college as well.
Don't get me wrong, I tried. After college I pushed hard and continued to run. I went to college meets and ran well, but the toll slowly wore me down. Tired and stressed, I had to find a balance. I ponder to guess that we all face those challenges at some point: we have to prioritize. I know people my age who are living in cities they didn't grow up in, most of them single and running massive amounts of mileage with others doing the exact same thing. For many of them, the dream will last a few years, have some successes, but then slowly fizzle out as life builds around them. Where then do they turn?
There's another question we are all faced with. Whether it's what to do after high school, after college, after we finish at a job, or after we've chased one dream and want to move to another, we have to ask ourselves what we really want. I occasionally go to these meets hosted by UND, and they always re-fire a flame inside of me. Sure, coming home to blizzard conditions and no good running options anywhere nearby makes it difficult, but I still hold on to some small dream.
This was on my mind as I sat with my former teammates at Up North Pizza in East Grand. As the group walked in, a man ran out the door, chasing down his pickup, which was being towed out of the parking lot while his family watched. The restaurant was quite full of UND hockey fans, there to enjoy pizza and watch the home game against #1 ranked St. Cloud State. The place was quite happy to see UND score first (and they ended up winning 5-1 actually). As we sat down and enjoyed our pizza, we of course had to ask the expected "what's up with you?" questions, but eventually we settled into discussing the past. At times I felt like a group of 70 year-olds re-living the good 'ol days. We talked about old races, training, and how the spring break trip has changed since we were there.
Yes, the spring break trip. I guess the team is going to Texas this year, and not even for a whole week! Of course, when we were running, we went to Myrtle Beach, SC for 10 days and competed in two different meets. In college we would have these three-day meets where either the first or second night, under the lights, the 10k would be run. One year, we were at the 10k to watch some UND runners compete. It was a perfect South Carolina night in mid-March, with the whole Earth slowly exhaling after a warm, breezy day. The lights turned on, the air cooled off, and the breeze slowed down. The stands emptied until the only people left were distance runners, friends of distance runners (who themselves were distance runners), and distance runner coaches. It was quiet and relaxing, watching runners go around the track 25 times. We stood along the short fence, arms folded over the top, checking the stopwatch for splits. We still had a few days left of spring break, where we would likely be sitting in the townhouse playing Super Smash or Mario Kart, letting our lives revolve around track and spending time with good friends. For now, we all shared together in something we enjoyed-- watching distance running. As I rested on the fence, I exhaled and looked up into the well-light, no-stars-to-be-seen sky, about one mile from the ocean. It was good.
Today, I watched kids who were freshmen when I was a fifth-year senior compete. When they started, they were curious and scared. They were overly-confident and quiet. They were filling up the lower-half of the results and yet passionate. Now, they were the leaders-- the athletes fighting for first place. They were the captains and commanded the presence that comes with the title. I knew what that felt like. But things have changed. I'm alumni now, and I'm here to support. I smiled. I hope these athletes love it as much I did.
Sunday, January 27, 2019
Wednesday, December 26, 2018
Light
I was sitting at the UCC Church in Garrison, North Dakota
for a service. My wife Ingrid just completed a masterful poem focused on
remembrance and coping with loss, and now we were going to celebrate life. One
by one we lit candles and set them in sand lying within a large, wooden cross.
In the dark rooms of the church, the candles stood out brighter than all else,
symbolizing the light that we each carry within us, and how we never let it
die. Each of these lights representing a life missed, and it was a moving
experience. Light is powerful.
On the drive home, beneath a dark, starry, December sky,
there is a slight orange glow to the west and northwest. Here in rural North
Dakota, there has never been any reason for light pollution to fill up the sky
when an area the size of Vermont and New Hampshire combined has a population
less than Fargo, North Dakota. With the advent of oil development has come
flaring, or burning of natural gas that is produced as a by-product of
fracking. This natural gas is burned on-site and produces an incredibly bright,
continuous fire that lights up the whole country-side. The closest oil
development is only 40 miles away. On a cloudy night, the clouds appear orange,
much like what you might see in a large city. It makes the stars less
spectacular, but it can also help defeat the intense darkness of the rural
Great Plains. Light is powerful.
Back in July, a friend and I were hiking in the badlands on
the beautiful Maah Daah Hey Trail. Our first night of camping, we were in a
spot where the sky above us illuminated the full Milky Way, almost like a thick
glitter in the sky. From high up on a ridge we could look down the valley at
the only lights for miles- the tiny tourist town of Medora. We marveled how the
next day we would be approaching that town, even though it seemed like a
daunting task. Walking back to our tents, we needed to use our headlamps to
guide us, because the darkness made it difficult to even see our feet on the
ground. Light is powerful.
Light is also a basic lifeline for runners. Many runners can
survive by running in towns with streetlights bright enough to light the paths.
When I was in college, I would run on the greenway in Grand Forks, and though
the darkness was deep by the river, the lights in town were enough to show at
least the outlines of the path. I didn’t need a light for that. However, for
many runners the darkness faces an insurmountable challenge- not only from the
inability to see, but also from the devious behavior of some that can, along with
making sure others can see you! For me, this is paramount. I run on a paved
two-lane highway that is completely dark when the sun is down. I can faintly
see the general outline of the road, but if there was a person or animal, I
wouldn’t see. If a car is driving down the shoulder-less road, they might not
see me until it’s too late. As a result, I have to buy things to get electrons
moving fast enough to make sure I don’t get into trouble.
I run with two lights, a headlamp for my front, and an LED
anklet for my back. Both are highly effective at keeping me safe, because every
car that drives past will move over to the other lane and- perhaps the best
thing that can happen- turn off their brights. See, lights can be TOO bright.
We all know how it feels to be driving down the highway, and the person coming
from the opposite direction still has their brights on. Continuing to look at
the road becomes difficult as we squint, feeling the searing pain on our eyes.
Eventually the car either drives past, or the driver turns off their brights;
either way it’s not a fun experience. While running on the road, this can be
even worse. In the moments before an approaching car goes past, lights will
make the road beneath my feet disappear; the car in front of me becomes a
large, intense yellow light that blinds me, while the road below me also turns
yellow and more difficult to see. When I weigh 155lbs and the car hurtling
towards me is 4000lbs, the road has no shoulder, and I’m blinded, it’s a scary
scenario. That’s why people should always move over while driving.
Conversely, we all have been the driver that forgot to turn
off their brights. I personally will apologize out loud to the driver zooming
past me, with no hopes of them hearing me or knowing who I am. Almost all of us
sit in bed in our dark room, staring at our phones while awaiting sleep,
knowing perfectly well that doing so lessens our chance of a good quality night
of rest. Our towns have street lights that stay on all night, every day.
Buildings and businesses shine security lights and have interior lights on in
case of a break-in. Dormant cars sitting in parking lots have a small, flashing
blue lights signifying auto-start ready and waiting. At this time of year,
houses line the street with magnificent Christmas colors, adding more light to
the night sky.
A few days ago during the evening I was flying in an
airplane through the Eastern US and Midwest, and the whole landscape was dotted
with bright lights. Cities, cars, farmhouses- you name it, it was probably
emitting light. I’ve never flown over the Bakken oil fields, but I’d imagine
the light, as seen from the sky, is incredible. It begs the question- where can
we go to escape light? We as humans have worked so hard for so long to avoid
and tame the darkness that we have succeeded, magnificently. Many places in the
US you can step outside in the middle of the night and go for a walk without
bringing any extra light with you. So, where is there left?
White Shield is one of those places. On a clear night, I’ll
put my headlamp on, wrap my LED light around my ankle, and run out the door. I’ll
run a half mile or so and be out in the country. Despite this being the main
highway, all is quiet. No cars, no towns, no traffic lights. As I run, I become
increasingly aware of the multitude of stars sitting calmly above my head,
twinkling on a cold winters night. I turn off the light attached to my forehead.
Dark blackness comes rushing into my face, temporarily blanking my vision.
Slowly items start coming into view- farmhouse lights two miles away, the dim
glow of flaring to the far west, and the electric pad 4 miles up the road. My
legs are now the same color as the air around them, and I can’t tell one from
the other. My shoes are hitting the road, but I can see neither. What does
illuminate most brilliantly around me, though, is the sky. Millions of stars
open up above me, and the milky way cuts a dense, glimmering line through the
middle of the half-sphere that is the night sky. I try to follow the whole
milky way with my eyes, but I arch my head so far back that I end up losing my
balance and almost falling on the road. It’s beautiful.
Running in the dark can be quite scary, too. There have been
inklings around town for almost a year now that a resident mountain lion has
been lurking. There have been supposed sightings, confirmed first-hand by
folks, but never confirmed when followed up on by law enforcement. Often when I
shut off my running light, I become painfully aware that I am in the middle of
the country, with absolutely no protections at all, and a mountain lion could
be sitting in the ditch 10 yards in front of me and I would have no idea,
despite their being no crops, no trees, and no anything for it to hide behind-
it’s just that dark. This will entice me to occasionally turn on my headlamp
and do a little spin while I’m running, looking into the farmland for any sign
that my light is being reflected back by a small pair of eyes. On rare occasion
I do see eyes in the field, and while my heart rate spikes to about 400 and I
start wishing I could’ve told my family I love them one last time, it usually
ends up being a rabbit or deer.
The light that we see the least of during the winter is the
sun. After months of only seeing the sun a few hours a day, if at all, we sit
around and wait for those summer days where we can go out for a run at 9pm and
the sun is still shining in the northwestern sky. Who would hate such a
life-giving time of year? But alas, I find myself coming to enjoy those
late-night or early morning runs, where all is quiet and dark. There’s a
certain sense of peace in the deadness of winter on the prairie that can’t be
mimicked anywhere else. The beauty of it grows on me with each run. There’s no
way that I’ll miss the cold and dark once the days start getting longer, but a
part of me will still be running in the dark, staring up at the starry sky,
each bright light like a candle, reminding us and allowing us to think deeply
about things that matter. The road, much like the sky, has no end as it
undulates through the open land, and my thoughts will still be floating there,
on a calm, cold night, in the middle of nowhere, far from any of the powerful
lights.
Thursday, November 8, 2018
North Dakota State Cross Country 2018- An Analysis of the Boys Race
This year the high school state cross country meet was held on
October 27th in Jamestown, North Dakota. The race was at Parkhurst
Recreation Area north of town, on a perfect weather day. The course is a
mixture of prairie and woods, with little-to-no hills throughout the
course. This combination led to many fast times in all of the races.
Here's a quick recap of the races:
Class A Boys: Sean Korsmo (Bismarck High) pulled off what many believed to be an upset in this race, running 15:46 to defeat predicted winner Brody Yoder (Dickinson), who ran 15:49 for 2nd place. There were just under 30 runners under 17 minutes- a pretty good day!
The team race was not close, with a very young Williston squad running away with an almost 30-point victory over Bismarck Century (58-87).
Class B Boys: To no one's surprise, Isaac Huber (Edgeley/Kulm) won the Class B Boys race handily, running 15:49, 17 seconds ahead of 2nd place Robert White (New Town).
The team race was also anti-climatic, with New Town winning their 7th straight title. They scored 47 points to 2nd place Hillsboro/Central Valley's 103.
Class A Girls: In the Class A Girls' race, Meghan Ford (Jamestown) finished off an incredibly impressive season with a sub-18 5k time, winning the state meet by 30 seconds (17:57). 2nd place was Kayla Ogle of newly-Class A Watford City in a time of 18:27.
The team race was the Fargo Davies show. En route to winning their third straight title, they scored 66 points to the 118 points of Grand Forks Central.
Class B Girls: This race, more than any other, had the most questions going into it. There was no clear favorite in the individual, and it quickly turned into a two-person duel. In the end, Reagan Baesler (H/CV) won her third title in a row with a quick time of 18:41, with Lana Krack (Thompson) just behind in 18:45.
The team title going into the meet was also very much in doubt. In the end, Hillsboro/Central Valley pulled off the Class B Girls sweep of titles, winning their 8th consecutive team title with 102 points (the only race of the day with the winning team over 100 points), with Rugby close behind in second with 120 points.
Below is the analysis of the two boys races. The Girls races analyses can be found here.
Last year's analysis can be found here.
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Class B Boys:
In the Class B Boys race there were 291 athletes representing 47 different teams. This is a decrease of two runners and an increase of two teams from last year. Similar to the Class B Girls race, there was not a continuation of the increase in participation numbers seen earlier in the 2010s. However, this was the second year in a row of having almost 300 runners on the start line of the state meet. Here are the numbers:
Year Runners Teams
2004 157 27
2005 149 27
2006 180 30
2007 183 31
2008 188 32
2009 176 34
2010 185 35
2011 171 36
2012 191 36
2013 207 35
2014 221 40
2015 247 45
2016 265 49
2017 293 45
2018 291 47
As you can see in the chart, both the number of teams and the number of athletes have hit abrupt high points, and so this begs the question: have we seen the top? Or is this yet to come? I don't know, but we'll see over the next few years if the number of athletes eclipses 300. Putting 300 runners on the start line is no simple feat, as the first quarter mile needs to be very wide to accommodate everybody, not to mention the wear on the ground a race like that imposes.
Next, we'll break down some of the data for the race itself. Here is the grade-by-grade breakdown of the top 40 boys:
Seniors- 11 (last year 7)
Juniors- 12 (last year 11)
Sophomores- 9 (last year 12)
Freshmen- 5 (last year 8)
8th Graders- 3 (last year 2)
7th Graders- 0 (last year 0)
Ok, this is fascinating. Last year there were 11 juniors, this year there were 11 seniors. Last year there were 12 sophs, this year there were 12 juniors. Last year there were 8 freshmen, this year there were 9 sophs. Looks like these Class B athletes were incredibly consistent over the last two years.
Additionally, this is a pretty old group of runners. This data doesn't even show that 9 of those 11 seniors were in the top 20! So, there is a lot of talent on the way out, but also a very strong core for next year. Class B is set to be quite competitive over the next few years.
Now let's look at how last year's re-score of the state meet panned out this year:
Predicted 2018 Actual 2018
1.) New Town 67 1.) New Town 47
2.) Hillsboro/Central Valley 122 2.) H/CV 103
3.) Rugby 137 3.) Bowman County 196
4.) Bowman County 204 4.) Griggs Co. Central 206
5.) Carrington 307 5.) Grafton 260
It looks here like New Town, H/CV, and Bowman County all took care of business this year. GCC and Grafton were both predicted in the top 10 last year, with over 300 points, but they stepped up into the top 5 this year. Rugby did not meet predictions, placing 6th with 280 points. Last year I conjectured that Rugby could be a 2019 state title contender with their young team, but I'm not so sure about that anymore. Carrington also did not meet predictions, placing 29th with 760 points. Overall though, predictions were fairly close in most cases.
Now, we'll take all of the seniors out of this year's state meet and re-score it.
Actual 2018: Predicted 2019:
1.) New Town 47 1.) New Town 104
2.) H/CV 103 2.) H/CV 117
3.) Bowman Co. 196 3.) Griggs Co. Central 150
4.) GCC 206 4.) Bowman Co. 160
5.) Grafton 260 5.) Grafton 197
This shows a few important notes:
1.) New Town is vulnerable next year, for the first time in many years. They are graduating some top guys, and while they have shown they are very good at developing talent year after year, Hillsboro/Central Valley will also have a strong team next year. To show how close these teams are shaping up to be, here's the predicted finishing places of their first seven runners next year:
New Town 1, 14, 16, 28, 45, 66, 85
Hillsboro/CV 5, 8, 17, 38, 49, 64, 95
From this list, it is clear that either of these teams could win or lose state simply by one runner having a great or terrible day.
2.) There are three good teams rounding out the top five, and they could finish in any order. Fun fact: Griggs County Central is actually the first team predicted to have all five runners finish, even ahead of New Town and Hillsboro; they just don't have anybody in the top ten, whereas the other schools do. Grafton has solid pack of 3 boys in places 20-30, and Bowman County has their first four runners in by 36th place.
3.) There is a steep gap to the next schools. Thompson (265) and Stanley (278) are on the outside looking in, both with firepower up front (top ten runners), but not much depth (5th runners coming around 100th place).
Last thought on the Class B race: is Isaac Huber one of the best Class B runners in state history? He soloed a 15:49 this fall, after easily winning the 1600 and 3200 at state track last spring. I wouldn't be surprised to see one or both of those state records fall this upcoming spring.
Next up is the Class A Boys. Scroll down all the way for the comparison of the two division.
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Class A Boys:
In the Class A Boys race, there were 186 runners on 20 different teams. Last year there were 175 runners on 19 teams. If you add one team (Watford City) and their 10 athletes they ran, it comes out to be pretty much the same as last year. Class A teams usually fill up all of their 10 spots, so the number of runners doesn't fluctuate all that much. Combine that with not having to worrying about co-ops, and the number of teams doesn't change much either.
As for the race itself, it became a duel between eventual winner Sean Korsmo (BHS) and runner-up Brody Yoder (DHS), both under 15:50. Even more impressive, perhaps, is Williston winning the team title by 30 points without a single senior in their top 5. Here's the breakdown of the top 40 boys:
Seniors- 11 (last year 7)
Juniors- 10 (last year 11)
Sophomores- 14 (last year 12)
Freshmen- 2 (last year 8)
8th Graders- 2 (last year 2)
7th Graders- 1 (last year 0)
A couple things really stand out to me here.
1.) Very heavy on the upperclass side here. Very few 7th-9th grade runners.
2.) 8 of those 14 sophomores were in the top 20, including the first and second place finishers. The top ten is setting up to be incredible in two years.
3.) The 10th place runner was an 8th grader from Williston, running 16:23. That's just crazy.
Here's how the predictions last year panned out this year:
Predicted 2018: Actual 2018:
1.) Williston 46 1.) Williston 58
2.) Bismarck Legacy 75 2.) Bismarck Century 87
3.) Bismarck Century 93 3.) Bismarck Legacy 94
4.) Fargo North 126 4.) Bismarck High 149
5.) Bismarck High 182 5.) Fargo North 164
6.) Fargo Davies 186
Thoughts:
1.) The top five teams were the same, just slightly rearranged and with pretty similar scores. This was a good predictor.
2.) The WDA really cleaned up this year. Top four places at state.
3.) There were races at state this year where the winning team failed to go under 100 points, but in this race there was 3 under 100. Looking closer at this year's results, every school in the top 3 had all five scorers in the top 31. In fact, every school in the top 3 had six runners in before any other school had five.
Now, we will remove all seniors from this year's state meet and re-score it.
Actual 2018: Predicted 2019:
1.) Williston 58 1.) Williston 44
2.) Bis Century 87 2.) Bis Century 65
3.) Bis Legacy 94 3.) Bis Legacy 147
4.) Bis High 149 4.) Bis High 153
5.) Fargo North 164 5.) Grand Forks Red River 199
Thoughts:
1.) This will be a two-horse race next year. Williston and Bismarck Century will both have programs that could contend for a state title in any given year, and they happen to meet up in the same year. Here's how close they are setting up:
Williston: 3, 6, 8, 10, 17, 52, 57, 63
Bis Cent: 4, 11, 12, 15, 23, 24, 40
Williston has much more firepower up front, but Bismarck Century has much more depth. Williston has no room for error outside of their top 5, but Bismarck Century will need their 4 and 5 runners farther up in order to win. Another thing to keep in mind is that Williston's 6, 7, and 8 runners are two sophomores and one junior, all of whom could show that incredible improvement that we've seen from Williston runners in the past.
2.) WDA dominance continues. It's a pretty good bet that there will be 4 WDA squads in the top 5. You know, this year there was only 4 EDC runners in the top 25. That means 21 of the top 25 runners at the state meet came from the WDA. That's incredible.
3.) Who will win state next year? Korsmo and Yoder are both sophomores running sub-16 minutes 5ks in cross country. They'll be fun to watch over the next few years. Also, don't sleep on this year's 4th place Micade Shumway (Williston), who ran 16:03 this year as a junior.
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Last but not least, comparing Class A and Class B. The chart below averages the top 10 finishing times of the Class B and Class A races dating back to 2003. The percent next to each is the percent difference between the two divisions. We can assume all differences to be Class A > Class B, because no state meet dating back to 2003 has had a better average top ten time for Class B over Class A. There are many reasons for that: location, facilities, teammates to run with and push, coaching, financials, etc.
As shown above, for both Class A and Class B this was a strong year. Class B had their second fastest average since 2003, trailing only 2016, while Class A had their 4th fastest since 2003. Class B also was much closer to Class A than the overall average, a sign of how strong that division has become in the last few years. Before 2016, Class B had never averaged under 16:30 for their 10 runners. Now they've done it 3 years in a row. Also, for the last three years, the difference between the top 10 class A runners and top 10 class B runners has been less than 3%. Keep in mind that both divisions have been sending athletes D-1 in the last few years. A few (not all) examples:
Hunter Lucas (Class A)- U of MN
Leif Eversen (Class A)- Boise State
Ryan Wheeling (Class B)- Oklahoma State
Chace Hale (Class B)- Kansas
Things are looking good for the state the next few years.
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So there's some stats on the state meet this year! I REALLY wish that the NDHSAA would put in some timing mats at miles 1 and 2 on the course, because people like me would LOVE to analyze race data like that, but alas maybe we'll get there someday...
Thanks for reading!
Class A Boys: Sean Korsmo (Bismarck High) pulled off what many believed to be an upset in this race, running 15:46 to defeat predicted winner Brody Yoder (Dickinson), who ran 15:49 for 2nd place. There were just under 30 runners under 17 minutes- a pretty good day!
The team race was not close, with a very young Williston squad running away with an almost 30-point victory over Bismarck Century (58-87).
Class B Boys: To no one's surprise, Isaac Huber (Edgeley/Kulm) won the Class B Boys race handily, running 15:49, 17 seconds ahead of 2nd place Robert White (New Town).
The team race was also anti-climatic, with New Town winning their 7th straight title. They scored 47 points to 2nd place Hillsboro/Central Valley's 103.
Class A Girls: In the Class A Girls' race, Meghan Ford (Jamestown) finished off an incredibly impressive season with a sub-18 5k time, winning the state meet by 30 seconds (17:57). 2nd place was Kayla Ogle of newly-Class A Watford City in a time of 18:27.
The team race was the Fargo Davies show. En route to winning their third straight title, they scored 66 points to the 118 points of Grand Forks Central.
Class B Girls: This race, more than any other, had the most questions going into it. There was no clear favorite in the individual, and it quickly turned into a two-person duel. In the end, Reagan Baesler (H/CV) won her third title in a row with a quick time of 18:41, with Lana Krack (Thompson) just behind in 18:45.
The team title going into the meet was also very much in doubt. In the end, Hillsboro/Central Valley pulled off the Class B Girls sweep of titles, winning their 8th consecutive team title with 102 points (the only race of the day with the winning team over 100 points), with Rugby close behind in second with 120 points.
Below is the analysis of the two boys races. The Girls races analyses can be found here.
Last year's analysis can be found here.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Class B Boys:
In the Class B Boys race there were 291 athletes representing 47 different teams. This is a decrease of two runners and an increase of two teams from last year. Similar to the Class B Girls race, there was not a continuation of the increase in participation numbers seen earlier in the 2010s. However, this was the second year in a row of having almost 300 runners on the start line of the state meet. Here are the numbers:
Year Runners Teams
2004 157 27
2005 149 27
2006 180 30
2008 188 32
2009 176 34
2010 185 35
2011 171 36
2012 191 36
2013 207 35
2014 221 40
2015 247 45
2016 265 49
2017 293 45
2018 291 47
As you can see in the chart, both the number of teams and the number of athletes have hit abrupt high points, and so this begs the question: have we seen the top? Or is this yet to come? I don't know, but we'll see over the next few years if the number of athletes eclipses 300. Putting 300 runners on the start line is no simple feat, as the first quarter mile needs to be very wide to accommodate everybody, not to mention the wear on the ground a race like that imposes.
Next, we'll break down some of the data for the race itself. Here is the grade-by-grade breakdown of the top 40 boys:
Seniors- 11 (last year 7)
Juniors- 12 (last year 11)
Sophomores- 9 (last year 12)
Freshmen- 5 (last year 8)
8th Graders- 3 (last year 2)
7th Graders- 0 (last year 0)
Ok, this is fascinating. Last year there were 11 juniors, this year there were 11 seniors. Last year there were 12 sophs, this year there were 12 juniors. Last year there were 8 freshmen, this year there were 9 sophs. Looks like these Class B athletes were incredibly consistent over the last two years.
Additionally, this is a pretty old group of runners. This data doesn't even show that 9 of those 11 seniors were in the top 20! So, there is a lot of talent on the way out, but also a very strong core for next year. Class B is set to be quite competitive over the next few years.
Now let's look at how last year's re-score of the state meet panned out this year:
Predicted 2018 Actual 2018
1.) New Town 67 1.) New Town 47
2.) Hillsboro/Central Valley 122 2.) H/CV 103
3.) Rugby 137 3.) Bowman County 196
4.) Bowman County 204 4.) Griggs Co. Central 206
5.) Carrington 307 5.) Grafton 260
It looks here like New Town, H/CV, and Bowman County all took care of business this year. GCC and Grafton were both predicted in the top 10 last year, with over 300 points, but they stepped up into the top 5 this year. Rugby did not meet predictions, placing 6th with 280 points. Last year I conjectured that Rugby could be a 2019 state title contender with their young team, but I'm not so sure about that anymore. Carrington also did not meet predictions, placing 29th with 760 points. Overall though, predictions were fairly close in most cases.
Now, we'll take all of the seniors out of this year's state meet and re-score it.
Actual 2018: Predicted 2019:
1.) New Town 47 1.) New Town 104
2.) H/CV 103 2.) H/CV 117
3.) Bowman Co. 196 3.) Griggs Co. Central 150
4.) GCC 206 4.) Bowman Co. 160
5.) Grafton 260 5.) Grafton 197
This shows a few important notes:
1.) New Town is vulnerable next year, for the first time in many years. They are graduating some top guys, and while they have shown they are very good at developing talent year after year, Hillsboro/Central Valley will also have a strong team next year. To show how close these teams are shaping up to be, here's the predicted finishing places of their first seven runners next year:
New Town 1, 14, 16, 28, 45, 66, 85
Hillsboro/CV 5, 8, 17, 38, 49, 64, 95
From this list, it is clear that either of these teams could win or lose state simply by one runner having a great or terrible day.
2.) There are three good teams rounding out the top five, and they could finish in any order. Fun fact: Griggs County Central is actually the first team predicted to have all five runners finish, even ahead of New Town and Hillsboro; they just don't have anybody in the top ten, whereas the other schools do. Grafton has solid pack of 3 boys in places 20-30, and Bowman County has their first four runners in by 36th place.
3.) There is a steep gap to the next schools. Thompson (265) and Stanley (278) are on the outside looking in, both with firepower up front (top ten runners), but not much depth (5th runners coming around 100th place).
Last thought on the Class B race: is Isaac Huber one of the best Class B runners in state history? He soloed a 15:49 this fall, after easily winning the 1600 and 3200 at state track last spring. I wouldn't be surprised to see one or both of those state records fall this upcoming spring.
Next up is the Class A Boys. Scroll down all the way for the comparison of the two division.
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Class A Boys:
In the Class A Boys race, there were 186 runners on 20 different teams. Last year there were 175 runners on 19 teams. If you add one team (Watford City) and their 10 athletes they ran, it comes out to be pretty much the same as last year. Class A teams usually fill up all of their 10 spots, so the number of runners doesn't fluctuate all that much. Combine that with not having to worrying about co-ops, and the number of teams doesn't change much either.
As for the race itself, it became a duel between eventual winner Sean Korsmo (BHS) and runner-up Brody Yoder (DHS), both under 15:50. Even more impressive, perhaps, is Williston winning the team title by 30 points without a single senior in their top 5. Here's the breakdown of the top 40 boys:
Seniors- 11 (last year 7)
Juniors- 10 (last year 11)
Sophomores- 14 (last year 12)
Freshmen- 2 (last year 8)
8th Graders- 2 (last year 2)
7th Graders- 1 (last year 0)
A couple things really stand out to me here.
1.) Very heavy on the upperclass side here. Very few 7th-9th grade runners.
2.) 8 of those 14 sophomores were in the top 20, including the first and second place finishers. The top ten is setting up to be incredible in two years.
3.) The 10th place runner was an 8th grader from Williston, running 16:23. That's just crazy.
Here's how the predictions last year panned out this year:
Predicted 2018: Actual 2018:
1.) Williston 46 1.) Williston 58
2.) Bismarck Legacy 75 2.) Bismarck Century 87
3.) Bismarck Century 93 3.) Bismarck Legacy 94
4.) Fargo North 126 4.) Bismarck High 149
5.) Bismarck High 182 5.) Fargo North 164
6.) Fargo Davies 186
Thoughts:
1.) The top five teams were the same, just slightly rearranged and with pretty similar scores. This was a good predictor.
2.) The WDA really cleaned up this year. Top four places at state.
3.) There were races at state this year where the winning team failed to go under 100 points, but in this race there was 3 under 100. Looking closer at this year's results, every school in the top 3 had all five scorers in the top 31. In fact, every school in the top 3 had six runners in before any other school had five.
Now, we will remove all seniors from this year's state meet and re-score it.
Actual 2018: Predicted 2019:
1.) Williston 58 1.) Williston 44
2.) Bis Century 87 2.) Bis Century 65
3.) Bis Legacy 94 3.) Bis Legacy 147
4.) Bis High 149 4.) Bis High 153
5.) Fargo North 164 5.) Grand Forks Red River 199
Thoughts:
1.) This will be a two-horse race next year. Williston and Bismarck Century will both have programs that could contend for a state title in any given year, and they happen to meet up in the same year. Here's how close they are setting up:
Williston: 3, 6, 8, 10, 17, 52, 57, 63
Bis Cent: 4, 11, 12, 15, 23, 24, 40
Williston has much more firepower up front, but Bismarck Century has much more depth. Williston has no room for error outside of their top 5, but Bismarck Century will need their 4 and 5 runners farther up in order to win. Another thing to keep in mind is that Williston's 6, 7, and 8 runners are two sophomores and one junior, all of whom could show that incredible improvement that we've seen from Williston runners in the past.
2.) WDA dominance continues. It's a pretty good bet that there will be 4 WDA squads in the top 5. You know, this year there was only 4 EDC runners in the top 25. That means 21 of the top 25 runners at the state meet came from the WDA. That's incredible.
3.) Who will win state next year? Korsmo and Yoder are both sophomores running sub-16 minutes 5ks in cross country. They'll be fun to watch over the next few years. Also, don't sleep on this year's 4th place Micade Shumway (Williston), who ran 16:03 this year as a junior.
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Last but not least, comparing Class A and Class B. The chart below averages the top 10 finishing times of the Class B and Class A races dating back to 2003. The percent next to each is the percent difference between the two divisions. We can assume all differences to be Class A > Class B, because no state meet dating back to 2003 has had a better average top ten time for Class B over Class A. There are many reasons for that: location, facilities, teammates to run with and push, coaching, financials, etc.
Year Class A Class B % Difference
2018 16:08.3 16:27.9 2.0%
2017 16:16.8 16:36.7 2.0%
2018 16:08.3 16:27.9 2.0%
2017 16:16.8 16:36.7 2.0%
2016 16:03.6 16:27.4 2.5%
2015 16:15.8 16:58.0 4.3%
2014 16:15.1 16:53.0 3.9%
2013 16:16.7 17:05.7 5.0%
2012 16:07.8 17:19.4 7.4%
2011 15:59.0 17:13.3 7.7%
2010 16:52.1 17:34.4 4.2%
2009 16:12.1 17:06.3 5.6%
2008 16:39.9 17:19.5 4.0%
2007 16:10.6 16:38.7 2.9%
2006 16:29.5 17:09.1 4.0%
2005 17:06.5 17:23.6 1.7%
2004 16:53.0 17:49.5 5.6%
2003 16:19.0 17:10.0 5.2% (overall avg. 4.3%)As shown above, for both Class A and Class B this was a strong year. Class B had their second fastest average since 2003, trailing only 2016, while Class A had their 4th fastest since 2003. Class B also was much closer to Class A than the overall average, a sign of how strong that division has become in the last few years. Before 2016, Class B had never averaged under 16:30 for their 10 runners. Now they've done it 3 years in a row. Also, for the last three years, the difference between the top 10 class A runners and top 10 class B runners has been less than 3%. Keep in mind that both divisions have been sending athletes D-1 in the last few years. A few (not all) examples:
Hunter Lucas (Class A)- U of MN
Leif Eversen (Class A)- Boise State
Ryan Wheeling (Class B)- Oklahoma State
Chace Hale (Class B)- Kansas
Things are looking good for the state the next few years.
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So there's some stats on the state meet this year! I REALLY wish that the NDHSAA would put in some timing mats at miles 1 and 2 on the course, because people like me would LOVE to analyze race data like that, but alas maybe we'll get there someday...
Thanks for reading!
North Dakota State Cross Country 2018- An Analysis of the Girls Race
This year the high school state cross country meet was held on October 27th in Jamestown, North Dakota. The race was at Parkhurst Recreation Area north of town, on a perfect weather day. The course is a mixture of prairie and woods, with little-to-no hills throughout the course. This combination led to many fast times in all of the races. Here's a quick recap of the races:
Class A Boys: Sean Korsmo (Bismarck High) pulled off what many believed to be an upset in this race, running 15:46 to defeat predicted winner Brody Yoder (Dickinson), who ran 15:49 for 2nd place. There were just under 30 runners under 17 minutes- a pretty good day!
The team race was not close, with a very young Williston squad running away with an almost 30-point victory over Bismarck Century (58-87).
Class B Boys: To no one's surprise, Isaac Huber (Edgeley/Kulm) won the Class B Boys race handily, running 15:49, 17 seconds ahead of 2nd place Robert White (New Town).
The team race was also anti-climatic, with New Town winning their 7th straight title. They scored 47 points to 2nd place Hillsboro/Central Valley's 103.
Class A Girls: In the Class A Girls' race, Meghan Ford (Jamestown) finished off an incredibly impressive season with a sub-18 5k time, winning the state meet by 30 seconds (17:57). 2nd place was Kayla Ogle of newly-Class A Watford City in a time of 18:27.
The team race was the Fargo Davies show. En route to winning their third straight title, they scored 66 points to the 118 points of Grand Forks Central.
Class B Girls: This race, more than any other, had the most questions going into it. There was no clear favorite in the individual, and it quickly turned into a two-person duel. In the end, Reagan Baesler (H/CV) won her third title in a row with a quick time of 18:41, with Lana Krack (Thompson) just behind in 18:45.
The team title going into the meet was also very much in doubt. In the end, Hillsboro/Central Valley pulled off the Class B Girls sweep of titles, winning their 8th consecutive team title with 102 points (the only race of the day with the winning team over 100 points), with Rugby close behind in second with 120 points.
Below is the analysis of the two Girls races. The Boys races analyses can be found here.
Last year's analysis can be found here.
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Class B Girls:
This year there were 243 athletes representing 46 different teams. This means that over the past 4 years the number of teams and athletes has changed little, from the massive increase during 2010-2014. Has the Class B girls division reached carrying capacity? I should mention that Watford City was Class B last year and was Class A this year, but they only ran 7 runners at state this year, which would put this year's Class B total at 250, still 10 less than last year. Has the second North Dakota running boom tapered off? I'm not sure, but the last four years for this race shows really no significant increase in participation. Here are the numbers:
2018 243 46
Here we can see that the number of teams has stagnated over the past few years, while the number of athletes still seems to be on the increase. We got this zig-zag pattern thing going on here for athlete numbers, so the trend would suggest that next year would see another increase in participation. I don't know, after the weather this October, maybe some kids won't come back! (Seriously though, can somebody explain the zig-zag pattern for athlete numbers?)
Next let's at some more data:
Here is the breakdown by grade of the top 40 girls:
Seniors- 6... (last year 4)
Juniors- 8... (last year 9)
Sophomores- 4... (last year 9)
Freshman- 5... (last year 8)
8th Graders- 11... (last year 5)
7th Graders- 6... (last year 5)
Looking at this chart, it's clear that middle schoolers this year far outnumbered last year, while underclassman did not. In fact, there were 4 seventh-graders in the top 20 alone! Here's a cool tidbit: Kindred had a seventh-grader place 11th, one place and two seconds ahead of her teammate, also a seventh-grader. Dang.
Last year I took the state meet results, took out all the seniors, and re-scored the meet. Here are the predicted results this year versus what actually happened:
Predicted 2018: Actual 2018:
1.) Watford 115 1.) H/CV 102
2.) H/CV 135 2.) Rugby 120
3.) Rugby 166 3.) May-Port CG 197
4.) New Town 250 4.) Bowman County 218
5.) H/N/T 253 5.) New Town 231
Now, at first this looks messy. BUT keep in mind that Watford City went Class A (and looking at the results they would have won Class B, but not by much), and the H/N/T coop broke up. Thompson took 8th on their own, while Hatton and Northwood coop-ed with Lairmore and took 17th. Other than that, it looks like MPCG and Bowman County stepped up their game. Also, there does seem to be a pattern emerging here that if you want to win state B girls, score at or below 100 points. Top 3 required sub-200, and low 200s is top 5.
Next, we take all of the seniors out of this year's state meet and re-score it as is. I can't take into account co-ops that will spontaneously combust at school board meetings, so we just hope for the best.
Actual 2018: Predicted 2019:
1.) H/CV 102 1.) H/CV 89
2.) Rugby 120 2.) Rugby 105
3.) MPCG 197 3.) MPCG 168
4.) Bow. Co. 218 4.) New Town 193
5.) New Town 231 5.) Bowman County 198
6.) Kindred 234
Here's a quick overview of what this shows (and doesn't show):
1.) Hillsboro/Central Valley will again be the team to beat next year, but Rugby winning might not necessarily be a big upset.
2.) The battle for the west region title will be interesting. New Town has quietly been developing a strong women's team over the past couple of years, in the shadows of the historically-good boys program. However, Bowman County is never a good idea to bet against. It will be close!
3.) Looking into the numbers for 2019, Rugby and MP-CG both have their fifth runners ahead of Hillsboro's fifth runner (35 and 50, respectively, compared to 52). Hillsboro gets away with having two low sticks in Reagan Baesler and Jensyn Zink. Having two girls in the top ten will make them tough to beat, but Rugby's depth- having 7 runners in before Hillsboro's fifth- will be tough to match.
H/CV 1, 3, 13, 20, 52, 82
Rugby 5, 18, 22, 25, 35, 40, 49, 60
MPCG 24, 30, 31, 33, 50, 54
4.) May-Port CG has a pretty tight top 4 next year, and if those girls can work together and pull themselves all into the top 30, or even 25, they might have a shot at top 2.
5.) Every team in this year's top five is predicted to score lower next year. This is more proof of the aforementioned relatively young group of girls at state this year.
Next up is Class A Girls. Scroll down to the bottom to see the comparison of the two divisions.
Class A Girls:
There were 182 girls representing 19 different schools in this race, but since most Class A schools bring their allotted 10 runners to the state meet, the numbers for the Class A Girls Race changes very little from year to year, at least not enough to be statistically significant. For example, last year there were 176 runners, and Watford City joined and brought 7 runners with them this year.
First point I want to make: Watford City joined Class A this year and put 3 girls in the top 12. Pretty impressive. More impressive? They were all sisters.
2 Kayla Ogle 12 18:27
3 Hayley Ogle 10 18:37
12 Jaelyn Ogle 8 19:10
Even though their fifth runner placed 116th, they still managed 6th place due to three low sticks. I know some Class B coaches that breathed a sign of relief that they went Class A this year!
As for the race itself, Fargo Davies ran away with this one by having runners come in at 4, 10, 11, 18, and 23. Having 4 of your 5 scores be all-state and your fifth runner just off the mark is pretty dang good. However, Fargo Davies relied heavily on seniors to lead the squad this year. Who will emerge next year?
Here's a question: which team was the first to have their 7th runner finish?
3rd place Minot. And they had no seniors in their top 5 at state this year.
Here's the breakdown of the top 40 by grade:
Seniors- 6 (last year 5)
Juniors- 9 (last year 5)
Sophomores- 12 (last year 11)
Freshmen- 9 (last year 10)
8th Graders- 2 (last year 7)
7th Graders- 2 (last year 2)
Looking at this list, two things are immediately clear:
1.) Class A was much older than Class B this year.
2.) Class A was understandably deep this year as a result of all the older, experienced runners. In each of the three oldest grades, there were more girls this year than last.
Additionally, with many girls graduating this year or next year, this would suggest an advantage for strong, young teams in the next two years.
Here's how last year's predictions panned out this year:
Predicted 2018 Actual 2018
1.) Fargo Davies 80 1.) Fargo Davies 66
2.) Bismarck Century 82 2.) Grand Forks Central 118
3.) Bismarck High 90 3.) Minot 129
4.) Grand Forks Central 112 4.) Bismarck Century 181
5.) Minot 149 5.) Mandan 194
It seems that Fargo Davies, GFC, and Minot all did almost exactly as predicted. Bismarck Century under performed last year's predictions, while Bismarck High was off the map (they took 10th with 272 points). Just goes to show that anything can happen in the span of a year, but most patterns do follow pretty closely.
Now, we will remove all seniors from this year's state meet and re-score:
Actual 2018: Predicted 2019:
1.) Fargo Davies 66 1.) Minot 106
2.) Grand Forks Central 118 2.) Fargo Davies 161
3.) Minot 129 3.) Grand Forks Central 167
4.) Bismarck Century 181 4.) Bismarck Century 216
5.) Mandan 194 5.) Fargo North 220
6.) West Fargo 225
Next year looks to be the return of the state champion Minot women's program. They have a lot of young girls running well this year, and if that continues, they should easily win next year. Here's an interesting tidbit: in the 2019 re-score, Minot's 8th runner comes in before any other team's number 5!
Also, it looks like Fargo Davies will be in a tough battle with Grand Forks Central over control of the EDC next year. Both teams have solid squads, but GFC will have more firepower up front, with the capabilities of 3 girls in the top 20 at state. We'll see what happens.
Last interesting note: taking out all of the seniors from last year's results would have girls from 12 different schools represented in the top 13 at the state meet. That's quite abnormal, and shows not only the depth across the state, but how widespread easily accessible modern training methods are now.
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Last but not least, comparing Class A and Class B. The chart below averages the top 10 finishing times of the Class B and Class A races dating back to 2003. The percent next to each is the percent difference between the two divisions. We can assume all differences to be Class A > Class B, because no state meet dating back to 2003 has had a better average top ten time for Class B over Class A. There are many reasons for that: location, facilities, teammates to run with and push, coaching, financials, etc.
Year Class A Class B % Difference
2018 18:44.2 19:34.9 4.3%
2017 18:37.8 19:15.4 3.4%
2016 18:14.8 19:10.4 5.1%
2015 14:42.2 15:04.6 2.5%
2014 14:37.7 15:26.8 5.6%
2013 14:48.7 15:30.3 4.7%
2012 15:11.7 15:54.9 4.7%
2011 14:39.8 15:25.9 5.2%
2010 15:12.6 15:50.7 4.2%
2009 15:06.0 15:41.3 3.9%
2008 15:16.1 16:06.3 5.5%
2007 14:57.1 15:32.3 3.9%
2006 14:59.4 15:42.8 4.8%
2005 15:54.1 16:11.6 1.8%
2004 15:27.4 15:34.5 0.8%
2003 15:12.2 15:21.8 1.1% (overall avg 3.8%)
This year was fairly close to the long-term average, and both of the average times were the slowest since the move to 5k in 2016. The closest years, 2003-2005, Class B had some incredible athletes at the top who brought everyone else up with them.
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So there's some stats on the state meet this year! I REALLY wish that the NDHSAA would put in some timing mats at miles 1 and 2 on the course, because people like me would LOVE to analyze race data like that, but alas maybe we'll get there someday...
Thanks for reading!
Class A Boys: Sean Korsmo (Bismarck High) pulled off what many believed to be an upset in this race, running 15:46 to defeat predicted winner Brody Yoder (Dickinson), who ran 15:49 for 2nd place. There were just under 30 runners under 17 minutes- a pretty good day!
The team race was not close, with a very young Williston squad running away with an almost 30-point victory over Bismarck Century (58-87).
Class B Boys: To no one's surprise, Isaac Huber (Edgeley/Kulm) won the Class B Boys race handily, running 15:49, 17 seconds ahead of 2nd place Robert White (New Town).
The team race was also anti-climatic, with New Town winning their 7th straight title. They scored 47 points to 2nd place Hillsboro/Central Valley's 103.
Class A Girls: In the Class A Girls' race, Meghan Ford (Jamestown) finished off an incredibly impressive season with a sub-18 5k time, winning the state meet by 30 seconds (17:57). 2nd place was Kayla Ogle of newly-Class A Watford City in a time of 18:27.
The team race was the Fargo Davies show. En route to winning their third straight title, they scored 66 points to the 118 points of Grand Forks Central.
Class B Girls: This race, more than any other, had the most questions going into it. There was no clear favorite in the individual, and it quickly turned into a two-person duel. In the end, Reagan Baesler (H/CV) won her third title in a row with a quick time of 18:41, with Lana Krack (Thompson) just behind in 18:45.
The team title going into the meet was also very much in doubt. In the end, Hillsboro/Central Valley pulled off the Class B Girls sweep of titles, winning their 8th consecutive team title with 102 points (the only race of the day with the winning team over 100 points), with Rugby close behind in second with 120 points.
Below is the analysis of the two Girls races. The Boys races analyses can be found here.
Last year's analysis can be found here.
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Class B Girls:
This year there were 243 athletes representing 46 different teams. This means that over the past 4 years the number of teams and athletes has changed little, from the massive increase during 2010-2014. Has the Class B girls division reached carrying capacity? I should mention that Watford City was Class B last year and was Class A this year, but they only ran 7 runners at state this year, which would put this year's Class B total at 250, still 10 less than last year. Has the second North Dakota running boom tapered off? I'm not sure, but the last four years for this race shows really no significant increase in participation. Here are the numbers:
| Year | Runners | Teams |
| 2004 | 144 | 25 |
| 2005 | 146 | 27 |
| 2006 | 153 | 28 |
| 2007 | 150 | 29 |
| 2008 | 179 | 30 |
| 2009 | 177 | 35 |
| 2010 | 172 | 41 |
| 2011 | 198 | 38 |
| 2012 | 196 | 37 |
| 2013 | 209 | 37 |
| 2014 | 208 | 39 |
| 2015 | 234 | 45 |
| 2016 | 223 | 47 |
| 2017 | 260 | 46 |
Here we can see that the number of teams has stagnated over the past few years, while the number of athletes still seems to be on the increase. We got this zig-zag pattern thing going on here for athlete numbers, so the trend would suggest that next year would see another increase in participation. I don't know, after the weather this October, maybe some kids won't come back! (Seriously though, can somebody explain the zig-zag pattern for athlete numbers?)
Next let's at some more data:
Here is the breakdown by grade of the top 40 girls:
Seniors- 6... (last year 4)
Juniors- 8... (last year 9)
Sophomores- 4... (last year 9)
Freshman- 5... (last year 8)
8th Graders- 11... (last year 5)
7th Graders- 6... (last year 5)
Looking at this chart, it's clear that middle schoolers this year far outnumbered last year, while underclassman did not. In fact, there were 4 seventh-graders in the top 20 alone! Here's a cool tidbit: Kindred had a seventh-grader place 11th, one place and two seconds ahead of her teammate, also a seventh-grader. Dang.
Last year I took the state meet results, took out all the seniors, and re-scored the meet. Here are the predicted results this year versus what actually happened:
Predicted 2018: Actual 2018:
1.) Watford 115 1.) H/CV 102
2.) H/CV 135 2.) Rugby 120
3.) Rugby 166 3.) May-Port CG 197
4.) New Town 250 4.) Bowman County 218
5.) H/N/T 253 5.) New Town 231
Now, at first this looks messy. BUT keep in mind that Watford City went Class A (and looking at the results they would have won Class B, but not by much), and the H/N/T coop broke up. Thompson took 8th on their own, while Hatton and Northwood coop-ed with Lairmore and took 17th. Other than that, it looks like MPCG and Bowman County stepped up their game. Also, there does seem to be a pattern emerging here that if you want to win state B girls, score at or below 100 points. Top 3 required sub-200, and low 200s is top 5.
Next, we take all of the seniors out of this year's state meet and re-score it as is. I can't take into account co-ops that will spontaneously combust at school board meetings, so we just hope for the best.
Actual 2018: Predicted 2019:
1.) H/CV 102 1.) H/CV 89
2.) Rugby 120 2.) Rugby 105
3.) MPCG 197 3.) MPCG 168
4.) Bow. Co. 218 4.) New Town 193
5.) New Town 231 5.) Bowman County 198
6.) Kindred 234
Here's a quick overview of what this shows (and doesn't show):
1.) Hillsboro/Central Valley will again be the team to beat next year, but Rugby winning might not necessarily be a big upset.
2.) The battle for the west region title will be interesting. New Town has quietly been developing a strong women's team over the past couple of years, in the shadows of the historically-good boys program. However, Bowman County is never a good idea to bet against. It will be close!
3.) Looking into the numbers for 2019, Rugby and MP-CG both have their fifth runners ahead of Hillsboro's fifth runner (35 and 50, respectively, compared to 52). Hillsboro gets away with having two low sticks in Reagan Baesler and Jensyn Zink. Having two girls in the top ten will make them tough to beat, but Rugby's depth- having 7 runners in before Hillsboro's fifth- will be tough to match.
H/CV 1, 3, 13, 20, 52, 82
Rugby 5, 18, 22, 25, 35, 40, 49, 60
MPCG 24, 30, 31, 33, 50, 54
4.) May-Port CG has a pretty tight top 4 next year, and if those girls can work together and pull themselves all into the top 30, or even 25, they might have a shot at top 2.
5.) Every team in this year's top five is predicted to score lower next year. This is more proof of the aforementioned relatively young group of girls at state this year.
Next up is Class A Girls. Scroll down to the bottom to see the comparison of the two divisions.
Class A Girls:
There were 182 girls representing 19 different schools in this race, but since most Class A schools bring their allotted 10 runners to the state meet, the numbers for the Class A Girls Race changes very little from year to year, at least not enough to be statistically significant. For example, last year there were 176 runners, and Watford City joined and brought 7 runners with them this year.
First point I want to make: Watford City joined Class A this year and put 3 girls in the top 12. Pretty impressive. More impressive? They were all sisters.
2 Kayla Ogle 12 18:27
3 Hayley Ogle 10 18:37
12 Jaelyn Ogle 8 19:10
Even though their fifth runner placed 116th, they still managed 6th place due to three low sticks. I know some Class B coaches that breathed a sign of relief that they went Class A this year!
As for the race itself, Fargo Davies ran away with this one by having runners come in at 4, 10, 11, 18, and 23. Having 4 of your 5 scores be all-state and your fifth runner just off the mark is pretty dang good. However, Fargo Davies relied heavily on seniors to lead the squad this year. Who will emerge next year?
Here's a question: which team was the first to have their 7th runner finish?
3rd place Minot. And they had no seniors in their top 5 at state this year.
Here's the breakdown of the top 40 by grade:
Seniors- 6 (last year 5)
Juniors- 9 (last year 5)
Sophomores- 12 (last year 11)
Freshmen- 9 (last year 10)
8th Graders- 2 (last year 7)
7th Graders- 2 (last year 2)
Looking at this list, two things are immediately clear:
1.) Class A was much older than Class B this year.
2.) Class A was understandably deep this year as a result of all the older, experienced runners. In each of the three oldest grades, there were more girls this year than last.
Additionally, with many girls graduating this year or next year, this would suggest an advantage for strong, young teams in the next two years.
Here's how last year's predictions panned out this year:
Predicted 2018 Actual 2018
1.) Fargo Davies 80 1.) Fargo Davies 66
2.) Bismarck Century 82 2.) Grand Forks Central 118
3.) Bismarck High 90 3.) Minot 129
4.) Grand Forks Central 112 4.) Bismarck Century 181
5.) Minot 149 5.) Mandan 194
It seems that Fargo Davies, GFC, and Minot all did almost exactly as predicted. Bismarck Century under performed last year's predictions, while Bismarck High was off the map (they took 10th with 272 points). Just goes to show that anything can happen in the span of a year, but most patterns do follow pretty closely.
Now, we will remove all seniors from this year's state meet and re-score:
Actual 2018: Predicted 2019:
1.) Fargo Davies 66 1.) Minot 106
2.) Grand Forks Central 118 2.) Fargo Davies 161
3.) Minot 129 3.) Grand Forks Central 167
4.) Bismarck Century 181 4.) Bismarck Century 216
5.) Mandan 194 5.) Fargo North 220
6.) West Fargo 225
Next year looks to be the return of the state champion Minot women's program. They have a lot of young girls running well this year, and if that continues, they should easily win next year. Here's an interesting tidbit: in the 2019 re-score, Minot's 8th runner comes in before any other team's number 5!
Also, it looks like Fargo Davies will be in a tough battle with Grand Forks Central over control of the EDC next year. Both teams have solid squads, but GFC will have more firepower up front, with the capabilities of 3 girls in the top 20 at state. We'll see what happens.
Last interesting note: taking out all of the seniors from last year's results would have girls from 12 different schools represented in the top 13 at the state meet. That's quite abnormal, and shows not only the depth across the state, but how widespread easily accessible modern training methods are now.
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Last but not least, comparing Class A and Class B. The chart below averages the top 10 finishing times of the Class B and Class A races dating back to 2003. The percent next to each is the percent difference between the two divisions. We can assume all differences to be Class A > Class B, because no state meet dating back to 2003 has had a better average top ten time for Class B over Class A. There are many reasons for that: location, facilities, teammates to run with and push, coaching, financials, etc.
Year Class A Class B % Difference
2018 18:44.2 19:34.9 4.3%
2017 18:37.8 19:15.4 3.4%
2016 18:14.8 19:10.4 5.1%
2015 14:42.2 15:04.6 2.5%
2014 14:37.7 15:26.8 5.6%
2013 14:48.7 15:30.3 4.7%
2012 15:11.7 15:54.9 4.7%
2011 14:39.8 15:25.9 5.2%
2010 15:12.6 15:50.7 4.2%
2009 15:06.0 15:41.3 3.9%
2008 15:16.1 16:06.3 5.5%
2007 14:57.1 15:32.3 3.9%
2006 14:59.4 15:42.8 4.8%
2005 15:54.1 16:11.6 1.8%
2004 15:27.4 15:34.5 0.8%
2003 15:12.2 15:21.8 1.1% (overall avg 3.8%)
This year was fairly close to the long-term average, and both of the average times were the slowest since the move to 5k in 2016. The closest years, 2003-2005, Class B had some incredible athletes at the top who brought everyone else up with them.
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So there's some stats on the state meet this year! I REALLY wish that the NDHSAA would put in some timing mats at miles 1 and 2 on the course, because people like me would LOVE to analyze race data like that, but alas maybe we'll get there someday...
Thanks for reading!
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