State Cross Country 2016- An Analysis of the Men's Race

The 2016 North Dakota high school cross country season came to a close this last weekend just north of Jamestown, with the state meet happening on a beautiful Saturday and with almost perfect running weather and course conditions. Briefly, the champions were:

Class A Boys:

Team- Bismarck Century

Individual- Hunter Lucas (Senior)- Fargo Davies

Class A Girls:

Team- Fargo Davies

Individual- Karly Ackely (Senior) - Grand Forks Central

Class B Boys:

Team- New Town

Individual- Jalen Chase (Junior)- New Town

Class B Girls:

Team- Hillsboro/Central Valley

Individual- Reagen Baesler (Freshman)- Hillsboro/Central Valley

The meet was held at the Parkhurst Recreation Area near the Pipestem Dam north of Jamestown. The whole course was pretty flat, with few sharp turns, and all grass. The first part of the course was through open prairie, the middle part was through a small patch of pines, and the last part was through the prairie again. For athletes, the course was fast and adequate. For spectators, it was awful; the organizers even told us that the pine forest was off-limits to coaches and spectators (scoff). The parking, team camp space, and porta-potties was inadequate, but the location was off the main road and quite peaceful. 

Now, for the analysis of the Boys' race. The post for the Girls' races can be found here.

There were 49 teams in the Class B boys race. 

..

FORTY-NINE TEAMS. There were 265 athletes in the race, an average of 5.5 athletes per team, which is crazy considering we score five runners total for each team. In fact, only 25 of the 49 teams fielded five runners total, barely more than half. At the coaches meeting for Class B, the advisory committee mentioned how the increase in participation in cross country has been steep, so I decided to look into it. Here's a list of the number of participating athletes and teams at the state meet over the past few years (for you out-of-staters, in North Dakota right now any team in any division can bring 10 male and 10 female runners to state- there's is no qualifying):

2004- 157 runners, 27 teams

2005- 149 runners, 27 teams

2006- 180 runners, 30 teams

2007- 183 runners, 31 teams

2008- 188 runners, 32 teams

2009- 176 runners, 34 teams

2010- 185 runners, 35 teams

2011- 171 runners, 36 teams

2012- 191 runners, 36 teams

2013- 207 runners, 35 teams

2014- 221 runners, 40 teams

2015- 247 runners, 45 teams

2016- 265 runners, 49 teams

From this list (where 1 on the x-axis represents the year 2004), you can see after an initial increase around 2005-2007, it leveled off for a couple years. However, around 2012-2013, participation exploded, likely catalyzed by the similar increase in teams. Now, many of these new teams were only contributing an athlete or two, but the numbers can add up in a hurry. It is true that if the numbers keep increasing like this, something in the near future will need to be done to address the issue, which is something coaches are already talking about.

There isn't as much of a way to look at state cross country to see Class A increases in participation. Most of the Class A teams are able to bring 10 runners to state, and do (and there hasn't really been an increase in Class A teams either). In order to get an accurate picture of participation changes, one would have to look at regular season meets, especially the conference meets. I'm not doing that right now. 

Next, I wanted to look at the difference between the Class A and Class B times. In North Dakota, comparing state times from year-to-year doesn't make any sense, because the meet bounces around. The previous five state meets have been in Grand Forks, Minot, Valley City, Dickinson, and Fargo. Combining that with the fact that the weather can be all over the place (it was snowing in Dickinson at state, but this year was in the 50s and sunny), and comparing years doesn't work. However, we can look at how divisions compare to each other every year. This next list compiles the average of the top ten times in the Class A and Class B races every year going back to 2003. Additionally, I looked at the percent difference between the times by taking their difference, dividing by the original, and multiplying by 100. 

            Class A     Class B   % Difference

2016     16:03.6    16:27.4        2.5%

2015     16:15.8    16:58.0        4.3%

2014     16:15.1    16:53.0        3.9%

2013     16:16.7    17:05.7        5.0%

2012     16:07.8    17:19.4        7.4%

2011     15:59.0    17:13.3        7.7%

2010     16:52.1    17:34.4        4.2%

2009     16:12.1    17:06.3        5.6%

2008     16:39.9    17:19.5        4.0%

2007     16:10.6    16:38.7        2.9%

2006     16:29.5    17:09.1        4.0%

2005     17:06.5    17:23.6        1.7%

2004     16:53.0    17:49.5        5.6%

2003     16:19.0    17:10.0        5.2% (overall avg 4.6%)

The first thing to note is that because state is in a different place with different weather every year, the times will vary greatly. State XC my senior year (2010) is one of the slowest on the list, and I recall that only 5 of us in Class A broke 17, while only one did in Class B.

From this list, we can see that the depth of Class B compared to Class A varies significantly from year to year. However, the overall average difference in the average top ten times comes out to around 4.6%. Later in the girl's post I'll examine the Girl's races and see what their percent difference is. I've talked many times on here before about why the difference between A and B exists, but to summarize briefly:

1.) There are simply less kids in Class B. If, let's just say on average, 5 out of every 100 9th graders go on to run under 17:00 in high school, that simply means less kids in Class B than Class A that can do it.
2.) Due to the school location and sizes, less experienced coaches have the Class B programs. It's entirely possible that a small school will have a coach that ran briefly in high school, while a big school could have a coach with a successful college career under his or her belt.
3.) The training facilities are much different. Bigger cities have big grass parks, running trails, and much nicer tracks. Small schools have country gravel roads and in most cases crappy tracks.
4.) Bigger schools tend to have more money to spend on programs like cross country and track and field.
5.) The team sizes being bigger in Class A schools affords athletes more chances to have running partners and people to push them. When, for example with my program this last year, there are only a couple varsity athletes separated by quite a bit of time, most of their training is on their own.

From the list above, you can probably see why some make a big stink about private schools in Class B, but that's another topic for another day. In later posts, I'd like to compare the difference between A and B in track races, and see if the different state qualifying times reflect that, but that's also another post for another day.

The last thing I'd like to do for this race is the age-old pastime of taking out all the seniors and scoring each race to see which programs will be coming up the next few years. Incredibly, most of the races in the state were decently young this year (especially the Class A Girls). In the top 40, here's the breakdown for the Boy's races:

Class B:
Seniors- 10
Juniors- 7
Sophomores- 11
Freshmen- 7
8th Grade- 4
7th Grade- 1

Class A:
Seniors- 13
Juniors- 9
Sophomores- 9
Freshmen- 6
8th Grade- 3
7th Grade- 0

Here's the breakdown for the B:          
Full Results:                           Without Seniors:                      Without Juniors/Seniors (Scoring Only 4)
1- New Town (18)                    1- New Town (21)                         1- New Town (24)
2- Rubgy     (85)                      2- Rugby (109)                              2- Rugby (63)
3- Bowman Co    (111)            3- Beulah/Hazen (153)                  3- Hillsboro/CV (93)
4- Hillsboro/CV    (152)          4- Hillsboro/CV (157)                   4- Beulah/Hazen (106)
5- Beulah/Hazen  (208)           5- Bowman Co. (213)                    5- H/N/T (156)

It should be noted that if only scoring three runners when Jr/Sr are both taken out, the top five teams remain unchanged. The conclusion from this list is that unless a school not listed above convinces some fast upperclassmen to join XC, or brings up some fast middle-schoolers, the top five in State B Boy's will not be changing anytime soon. There are only 6 or 7 programs in the state that field full teams, and most of them are listed above. Does this suggest another smaller division that scores less runners? In my mind yes, but that's again another topic for another day.

Here's the breakdown for the A:
Full Results:                             Without Seniors:                  Without Juniors/Seniors (Scoring Only 4):
1- Bis Century (62)                  1- Bis Century (52)                     1- Williston (36)
2- Williston (95)                       2- Bis Legacy (87)                      2- Bis Century (72)
3- Bis High (105)                     3- Bis High (113)                        3- Bis Legacy (74)
4- Fargo Davies (132)              4- GF Red River (161)                4- Dickinson (99)
5- Bis Legacy (138)                 5- Fargo Davies (166)                 5- Minot (100)

I'm a product of the EDC and I have to ask....what's going on east part of the state?!?!? Notice that within a couple of years it is possible that no teams from the EDC will be in top 5 at state. Also, notice how next year it could be a Bismarck sweep of the top three spots. I don't know what's in the water in Bismarck, but that would be incredible. Also, we are officially done with the reign of BHS after all those titles from the early 2000s until the last few years.

So that was just a brief overview of the State XC meet on the boys' side this year. I'm currently working on the girls' overview, and after that there's all sorts of directions to go. For now, keep running!

Listening With Both Eyes Open

"GO!" Speed. Running hard down the straightaway and avoiding the junior high football team, taking the turn, running into the 35-degree wind, turning again, and finishing at the timer. "Eighty-Two, Eighty-Three, Eighty-Four" cuts through the air. There's some snow flurries. "HEART RATES...READY, GO". Hands fly up to the lower neck to feel the bouncing bob of being bushed. After fifteen seconds, hands are released, and recovery occurs for a short amount of time. The realization that it's cold flies in stark contrast to the fact that these 400s aren't getting any easier. The legs are becoming lead bricks, the lungs are feeling fire, and breathing is getting louder by the rep. In the middle of the workout, the first few easy reps are done, and the last few are too far away to have any sort of hope. This hurts. I smile, look down at one of my watches, and send off our varsity boy on his next rep. I look over at our varsity girl and say, "You start in 10 seconds." Oh, how many times I've been on the receiving end of that. I shiver- it's cold when you're not running.

Let's back up five days. We were pulling into the Class B Region Cross Country Meet in Beulah, North Dakota. This park where the meet is at is located at the base of the Knife River Valley, a beautiful, meandering stream through the rough western North Dakota carved terrain. To the south, the highway rises up through the buttes, cutting straight south to the interstate, while north of town the towers of the coal mines protrude high in the open sky. As teams begin to arrive, many of them in small school buses with "_____ county public school" written on the side, athletes dance around to warm up. It snowed overnight in this first week of October, and a light layer of wet snow covers the course. The couple teams in the western half of the state with tents bring them, the rest wish for a tent or tarp. We arrive in a mini van carrying all of our athletes and coaches.

At the coaches meeting, I'm an outsider. The coaches are all familiar with each other and all the athletes, and coaches sit down together and discuss all sorts of topics unrelated to running. To my pleasant surprise, donuts are being offered; I take a bavarian cream donut before someone beats me to it. Life is a race, after all.

Athletes are beginning to warm-up now. This particular course is, as the kids would say, savage. The race begins and ends on the flat valley floor. The other 4600 meters of the 5000 meter race are much different. Within the first mile, the runners must go up two decent hills that would qualify it as a perfectly legitimate cross country course just on those merits. After the mile marker, the runners get a slight break from hills and then have a steep downhill straight into a monster. The best way to describe the hill would be to take a western ND butte, spend too money watering it for a false sense of hope, and then make people run up it. If the runner survives that hill, they are 'rewarded' with quarter-mile downhills and corresponding uphills for the next mile. Then, and ONLY then, are they allowed to come all the way back down to the valley floor to the finish. Nobody has a decent kick left at the end of this race.

Being at the meet, there's a few realities that are simply impossible for the outside observer to ignore. The first is the absolute dominance by the New Town men's team. Not only do they sweep the top 7 spots in the race, but they have 6 of those runners ranked in the top 7 in the state. It could be argued that they are the best Class B men's team in state history, if not one of the best overall. Most of their runners are so fluid in their forms that it's quite fun to watch. Their coach, Mr. Anderson, was rewarded with a Coach of the Year award that will likely be upgraded in two weeks at state. Throughout the history of cross country in this state, New Town has been a force to be reckoned with, and this was no exception.

The second reality was the strong Native presence at the meet. It has impressed me since I was in high school how well reservation families and communities come out to support their athletes. Native athletes took many of the top 10 places in both varsity races, and many of the fans were as well. Especially with the Standing Rock protests going on, in which the rhetoric has been stepped up a notch and people are letting their blatant racism shine through, it seems wonderful that a sport like cross country can bring people together in the same manner week after week during the fall.

Being at a meet such as this regularly allows me the opportunity to look at the bigger picture. In reality, nobody outside of North Dakota cares about this meet. In reality, this won't pop up on anybody's radar for any reason. In reality, the results of this meet will disappear into the file boxes of small schools, delegated to cabinets in locked rooms in a corner of the school where old trophies collect dust. This is a course where during the second mile of the race a runner can feel as if they are running along a country road with their teammates, with little distractions or noise. Out here, nobody is watching besides the few who came to watch you. Out here, people don't simply drop by to 'check it out'. Out here, cross country is harder.

And yet, it means something to so many people. I saw tears after bad races and I saw tears after good races. I saw coaches sprinting across the open fields, trying to catch their athletes at the next checkpoint just to holler something encouraging to them that the runner might not even be able to process at that moment. I almost feel bad for the kids that grow up in places like California, where many of their races are run on nice, manicured, flat courses in perfect weather- they miss out on all the life lessons. Pain isn't just running up a difficult hill- it's running up a difficult hill in the middle of nowhere when there may not be many other runners around you. The mental pain of working hard in the conditions these kids are given is something that never shows up in the results. The true grit that it takes simply to make it to the start line might not reflect in finishing times.

Standing there at the meet, it occurs to me how incredibly isolated we are from most of the country. To a majority of Americans, Bismarck is a quaint little town where St. Carson Wentz IV came from. However, to many of the people in attendance (myself included), Bismarck is that big city that might be visited every couple weeks, having such amenities as Walmart, chain restaurants, and shopping malls with more than cute knick-knacks and t-shirts supporting the local high school. From here, Bismarck is more than an hour away. Opportunity here is much different: outside of coal/gas/oil industry and farm/ranching jobs, there's not a lot for people here. Sure, most towns have some kind of school, and almost every county has a hospital of some kind, that isn't what economically drives the area. Here, driving two hours for a cross country meet is perfectly normal, and anything more than that isn't out of the ordinary. We put together the entire western half of the state's class B schools and struggle to get 80 kids to toe the line of the varsity boys race. The blue sky runs off in every direction as far as the eye can see, and no matter how fast or how far you run, the landscape doesn't change much, and yet here we are, running and fighting against the elements. Except, I don't think of it as fighting. When you live here, either the wind becomes your friend or you go insane. The cold teaches you lessons, whether you listen or not. You see life and death of seasons, animals, and people. The more you fighting the prairie, the more unforgiving it can become; the more you embrace, the more inviting it can seem. Some people in our life are the same way.

As I watch my runners finish up their last truly difficult workout of the season, I have time to reflect on my own running and how much I miss the struggle. With student teaching and training my body how to run barefoot, my training has been hampered quite a bit this semester, but I've learned so much from these kids. The most surprising thing to learn has been the immense amount of power I have over them. I have hard-working, dedicated runners who will do whatever workout I give them. I could have them do training that makes them feel like zombies during the day, trying to make it from practice to practice, and they would keep going because coach said so. But that's not the business I'm in. At every step in the road I've been worried more about long-term development than short-term results. Maybe that doesn't produce state champions now, but it produces long-term runners who love what they do and want to share it. So there I stand, a coach with a watch in his shivering hand, sharing what he loves with those who can learn. Throughout it all, I find a sense of peace. From whence it comes I know not, but life, after all, is a race. It doesn't matter as much who wins, but what it took you to get to the start line. Be wary- I can't promise that the race won't be without a few hills and some gusty winds, especially in western North Dakota.