Sunday, October 30, 2016

State Cross Country 2016- An Analysis of the Men's Race

The 2016 North Dakota high school cross country season came to a close this last weekend just north of Jamestown, with the state meet happening on a beautiful Saturday and with almost perfect running weather and course conditions. Briefly, the champions were:
Class A Boys:
Team- Bismarck Century
Individual- Hunter Lucas (Senior)- Fargo Davies
Class A Girls:
Team- Fargo Davies
Individual- Karly Ackely (Senior) - Grand Forks Central
Class B Boys:
Team- New Town
Individual- Jalen Chase (Junior)- New Town
Class B Girls:
Team- Hillsboro/Central Valley
Individual- Reagen Baesler (Freshman)- Hillsboro/Central Valley

The meet was held at the Parkhurst Recreation Area near the Pipestem Dam north of Jamestown. The whole course was pretty flat, with few sharp turns, and all grass. The first part of the course was through open prairie, the middle part was through a small patch of pines, and the last part was through the prairie again. For athletes, the course was fast and adequate. For spectators, it was awful; the organizers even told us that the pine forest was off-limits to coaches and spectators (scoff). The parking, team camp space, and porta-potties was inadequate, but the location was off the main road and quite peaceful. 

Now, for the analysis of the Boys' race. The post for the Girls' races can be found here.


There were 49 teams in the Class B boys race. 

..

FORTY-NINE TEAMS. There were 265 athletes in the race, an average of 5.5 athletes per team, which is crazy considering we score five runners total for each team. In fact, only 25 of the 49 teams fielded five runners total, barely more than half. At the coaches meeting for Class B, the advisory committee mentioned how the increase in participation in cross country has been steep, so I decided to look into it. Here's a list of the number of participating athletes and teams at the state meet over the past few years (for you out-of-staters, in North Dakota right now any team in any division can bring 10 male and 10 female runners to state- there's is no qualifying):

2004- 157 runners, 27 teams
2005- 149 runners, 27 teams
2006- 180 runners, 30 teams
2007- 183 runners, 31 teams
2008- 188 runners, 32 teams
2009- 176 runners, 34 teams
2010- 185 runners, 35 teams
2011- 171 runners, 36 teams
2012- 191 runners, 36 teams
2013- 207 runners, 35 teams
2014- 221 runners, 40 teams
2015- 247 runners, 45 teams
2016- 265 runners, 49 teams

From this list (where 1 on the x-axis represents the year 2004), you can see after an initial increase around 2005-2007, it leveled off for a couple years. However, around 2012-2013, participation exploded, likely catalyzed by the similar increase in teams. Now, many of these new teams were only contributing an athlete or two, but the numbers can add up in a hurry. It is true that if the numbers keep increasing like this, something in the near future will need to be done to address the issue, which is something coaches are already talking about.

There isn't as much of a way to look at state cross country to see Class A increases in participation. Most of the Class A teams are able to bring 10 runners to state, and do (and there hasn't really been an increase in Class A teams either). In order to get an accurate picture of participation changes, one would have to look at regular season meets, especially the conference meets. I'm not doing that right now. 

Next, I wanted to look at the difference between the Class A and Class B times. In North Dakota, comparing state times from year-to-year doesn't make any sense, because the meet bounces around. The previous five state meets have been in Grand Forks, Minot, Valley City, Dickinson, and Fargo. Combining that with the fact that the weather can be all over the place (it was snowing in Dickinson at state, but this year was in the 50s and sunny), and comparing years doesn't work. However, we can look at how divisions compare to each other every year. This next list compiles the average of the top ten times in the Class A and Class B races every year going back to 2003. Additionally, I looked at the percent difference between the times by taking their difference, dividing by the original, and multiplying by 100. 

            Class A     Class B   % Difference
2016     16:03.6    16:27.4        2.5%
2015     16:15.8    16:58.0        4.3%
2014     16:15.1    16:53.0        3.9%
2013     16:16.7    17:05.7        5.0%
2012     16:07.8    17:19.4        7.4%
2011     15:59.0    17:13.3        7.7%
2010     16:52.1    17:34.4        4.2%
2009     16:12.1    17:06.3        5.6%
2008     16:39.9    17:19.5        4.0%
2007     16:10.6    16:38.7        2.9%
2006     16:29.5    17:09.1        4.0%
2005     17:06.5    17:23.6        1.7%
2004     16:53.0    17:49.5        5.6%
2003     16:19.0    17:10.0        5.2% (overall avg 4.6%)

The first thing to note is that because state is in a different place with different weather every year, the times will vary greatly. State XC my senior year (2010) is one of the slowest on the list, and I recall that only 5 of us in Class A broke 17, while only one did in Class B.

From this list, we can see that the depth of Class B compared to Class A varies significantly from year to year. However, the overall average difference in the average top ten times comes out to around 4.6%. Later in the girl's post I'll examine the Girl's races and see what their percent difference is. I've talked many times on here before about why the difference between A and B exists, but to summarize briefly:

1.) There are simply less kids in Class B. If, let's just say on average, 5 out of every 100 9th graders go on to run under 17:00 in high school, that simply means less kids in Class B than Class A that can do it.
2.) Due to the school location and sizes, less experienced coaches have the Class B programs. It's entirely possible that a small school will have a coach that ran briefly in high school, while a big school could have a coach with a successful college career under his or her belt.
3.) The training facilities are much different. Bigger cities have big grass parks, running trails, and much nicer tracks. Small schools have country gravel roads and in most cases crappy tracks.
4.) Bigger schools tend to have more money to spend on programs like cross country and track and field.
5.) The team sizes being bigger in Class A schools affords athletes more chances to have running partners and people to push them. When, for example with my program this last year, there are only a couple varsity athletes separated by quite a bit of time, most of their training is on their own.

From the list above, you can probably see why some make a big stink about private schools in Class B, but that's another topic for another day. In later posts, I'd like to compare the difference between A and B in track races, and see if the different state qualifying times reflect that, but that's also another post for another day.

The last thing I'd like to do for this race is the age-old pastime of taking out all the seniors and scoring each race to see which programs will be coming up the next few years. Incredibly, most of the races in the state were decently young this year (especially the Class A Girls). In the top 40, here's the breakdown for the Boy's races:

Class B:
Seniors- 10
Juniors- 7
Sophomores- 11
Freshmen- 7
8th Grade- 4
7th Grade- 1

Class A:
Seniors- 13
Juniors- 9
Sophomores- 9
Freshmen- 6
8th Grade- 3
7th Grade- 0

Here's the breakdown for the B:          
Full Results:                           Without Seniors:                      Without Juniors/Seniors (Scoring Only 4)
1- New Town (18)                    1- New Town (21)                         1- New Town (24)
2- Rubgy     (85)                      2- Rugby (109)                              2- Rugby (63)
3- Bowman Co    (111)            3- Beulah/Hazen (153)                  3- Hillsboro/CV (93)
4- Hillsboro/CV    (152)          4- Hillsboro/CV (157)                   4- Beulah/Hazen (106)
5- Beulah/Hazen  (208)           5- Bowman Co. (213)                    5- H/N/T (156)

It should be noted that if only scoring three runners when Jr/Sr are both taken out, the top five teams remain unchanged. The conclusion from this list is that unless a school not listed above convinces some fast upperclassmen to join XC, or brings up some fast middle-schoolers, the top five in State B Boy's will not be changing anytime soon. There are only 6 or 7 programs in the state that field full teams, and most of them are listed above. Does this suggest another smaller division that scores less runners? In my mind yes, but that's again another topic for another day.

Here's the breakdown for the A:
Full Results:                             Without Seniors:                  Without Juniors/Seniors (Scoring Only 4):
1- Bis Century (62)                  1- Bis Century (52)                     1- Williston (36)
2- Williston (95)                       2- Bis Legacy (87)                      2- Bis Century (72)
3- Bis High (105)                     3- Bis High (113)                        3- Bis Legacy (74)
4- Fargo Davies (132)              4- GF Red River (161)                4- Dickinson (99)
5- Bis Legacy (138)                 5- Fargo Davies (166)                 5- Minot (100)

I'm a product of the EDC and I have to ask....what's going on east part of the state?!?!? Notice that within a couple of years it is possible that no teams from the EDC will be in top 5 at state. Also, notice how next year it could be a Bismarck sweep of the top three spots. I don't know what's in the water in Bismarck, but that would be incredible. Also, we are officially done with the reign of BHS after all those titles from the early 2000s until the last few years.

So that was just a brief overview of the State XC meet on the boys' side this year. I'm currently working on the girls' overview, and after that there's all sorts of directions to go. For now, keep running!

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