State cross country this year was in Valley City, ND on a stunningly beautiful late fall day. The temperature in the morning was a balmy 15 degrees, working it's way up into the low 40s during the day. The sun was shining and the wind was negligent. The course was pretty flat with relatively few tight turns. The ground was dry and the grass manicured. Basically, perfect conditions for fast cross country. Through a strange happenstance that I have never understood, the meet was delayed due to the thick morning frost.
Now, I've experienced meets pushed back due to frost before (in college specifically), but I've never understood it. I heard word that the golf course manager was worried about the facility and pushed for the meet to start later. In 2009 I raced on this course for State XC and it was raining and dreary most of the day. By the time the Class B Boys raced (the last of the 4 races), the course was a mudpit. Times were slow and people were slipping everywhere. I fail to see how racing on a frost-covered course can do more damage than running in mud, but maybe I just don't understand how things work.
Either way, there were some exciting races taking place throughout the day. Whether it was the individual race in the B Boys or the team race in the A girls, the great conditions did not disappoint. A little overview of the champions:
Class A Boys:
Individual Champion: Evan Sayler, Senior, Bismarck Century, 15:42 (won by 22 seconds)
Team Champion: Bismarck Century, 60 points (4 ahead of 2nd place Williston)
Class B Boys:
Individual Champion: Jaiven Hale, Junior, New Town, 16:02 (won by 16 seconds)
Team Champion: New Town, 29 points (93 points ahead of 2nd place Hillsboro/Central Valley)
Class A Girls:
Individual Champion: Kelby Rinas, Sophomore, Mandan, 18:15 (won by 10 seconds)
Team Champion: Fargo Davies, 88 points (won in a tie-break with Grand Forks Central, and 1 point ahead of 3rd place Bismarck Century)
Class B Girls:
Individual Champion: Reagan Baesler, Hillsboro/Central Valley, 18:27 (won by 32 seconds)
Team Champion: Hillsboro/Central Valley, 96 points (12 ahead of 2nd place Watford City)
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The 2016 analysis can be found here: 2016 Boys
Let's take a look at each race:
Class B Boys:
The question in this race was not, 'Who would win the State Title', but rather, 'How low of a score could New Town get while winning their sixth State Title in a row?' New Town was noticeably weaker this year, having five runners ranked in the top ten but not necessarily the top five or six. The race played out a as expected- A glob of yellow jerseys to the front at the start along with the black jersey of Isaac Huber (Edgeley/Kulm), determined to break the hold of Eagle dominance at the top. Predictably, Jalen Chase moved to the front and gapped the field in the first mile. The recent state-record holder in the B 3200m on the track, this was no surprise to anybody. However, by the first mile and beyond, last year's state champion in cross country faded back and allowed teammates and Huber to pass in front of him. He ended up finishing fourth.
The race rapidly turned into a two-man battle for the title- Huber and Jaiven Hale. Huber patiently waited and picked off yellow jerseys one-by-one until it was just the two juniors left. Huber sat behind Hale for the majority of the second and third miles. With about a half mile left to go, Huber moved up on the shoulder of Hale and they were side by side. It was exciting! Almost as soon as that happened though, Hale turned on the jets and pushed a huge gap on Huber in a very short amount of time. As Hale sprinted away to victory, Huber was left gassed and was passed by Robert White (sophomore/New Town) and almost passed by Jalen Chase. New Town ended up going 1-2-4-7-15 for a total of 29. Normally that would be obliteration (it was), but in previous years they've taken 6 of the top 7 spots- a noticeable difference.
Congrats to New Town, though!
As for the rest of the race, there were 45 teams and 293 runners. That's by far that largest of any of the four state races, but the depth was still more in the boy's race. In the analysis of the girls race (here), I noted that the difference between 1st and 100th place was close to 5 minutes, but here it was less than 4. It's interesting to see that even with more athletes, the finishing places over the exact same distance were closer.
2004- 157 runners, 27 teams
2005- 149 runners, 27 teams
2006- 180 runners, 30 teams
2007- 183 runners, 31 teams
2008- 188 runners, 32 teams
2009- 176 runners, 34 teams
2010- 185 runners, 35 teams
2011- 171 runners, 36 teams
2012- 191 runners, 36 teams
2013- 207 runners, 35 teams
2014- 221 runners, 40 teams
2015- 247 runners, 45 teams
2016- 265 runners, 49 teams
2017- 293 runners, 45 teams
*Note that in the chart above, 1 on the x-axis corresponds to 2004, and 14 corresponds to 2017.
This chart makes it clear that since 2011, the number of athletes in this race has steadily increased every year. This is leading to discussions of what to do with increasing numbers (a more in-depth discussion can be found on the girl's analysis). Basically, this growth at the state meet is unsustainable. At this pace, we can expect 350 runners by roughly 2023, not too far away. Very, very few courses in the state can support numbers like that. So, a solution needs to be found.
Next we'll look at the state meet predictions for next year. The methodology is simple: remove all the seniors from the state race and re-score it. This will give you a general idea of team depth beyond what are normally the fastest runners on each team (seniors). Of course, this can't account for those runners that had off races, and it can't account for massive improvements from year-year by younger athletes. Here's what last year's predictions looked like versus what actually happened this year:
2017 Predictions 2017 Actual
1.) New Town (21) 1.) New Town (29)
2.) Rugby (109) 2.) Hillsboro/CV (123)
3.) Beulah/Hazen (153) 3.) Hatton/Thompson/Northwood (159)
4.) Hillsboro/Central Valley (157) 4.) Rubgy (174)
5.) Bowman County (213) 5.) Bowman County (211)
It looks like New Town and Bowman County followed in last year's footsteps almost exactly, but overall the top five was different. H/N/T snuck into the top five. Rugby and Beulah/Hazen both were lower, and Hillsboro/CV was higher, even though the overall score wasn't much different. Before re-scoring this year's meet: here's a brief overview of grades of all the athletes in the top 40:
Seniors- 7
Juniors- 11
Sophomores- 12
Freshmen- 8
8th Grade- 2
7th Grade- 0
Compared to last year, the state is very heavy in the middle-high school range, but rather low on seniors at the top. This suggests a pretty strong Class B for at least the next two years. In fact, there were only two seniors in the top ten, and none in the top three.
Here's what next year's state meet would look like if we take out all seniors and re-score the meet:
2017 Actual: 2018 Predictions:
1.) New Town (29) 1.) New Town (67)
2.) Hillsboro/CV (123) 2.) H/CV (122)
3.) H/N/T (159) 3.) Rugby (137)
4.) Rugby (174) 4.) Bowman Co. (204)
5.) Bowman Co. (211) 5.) Carrington (307)
A few things to take note of in this year's results that show on next year's predictions:
1.) The reason why the scores seem to be higher overall is because there are 25 teams represented in the first 50 places at state (after seniors removed). The fact that most teams had their second runner coming in around places 40-60 is really going to drive scores up.
2.) There were about 6 teams all having their runners 1-5 finish in the same general area, and this created a massive log jam immediately after the top five. See for yourself:
6th: H/N/T (341)
7th: Beulah/Hazen (349)
8th: Griggs Co. Central (352)
9th: Pembina Co. North (357)
10th: Four Winds/Minnewauken (378)
What this says is simple: I'm not gonna give any athletes or coaches training advice, but all you need is your 4-5 runners putting in a tough summer of work and dropping a decent chunk of time on their 5k, moving up 30-40 places in the middle of the pack, and suddenly you have a top five team. 3-5 runners are what carry teams at big meets like state, and having a low stick helps, but not as much.
3.) New Town. Not only would 67 points be their highest total in many years, but what's more important is that their fifth runner comes in at 38th place. Their 6th runner comes in at 141st place. Additionally, Hillsboro's fifth runner comes in at 43rd place, but their 6th runner is 159th. That doesn't bode well for next year or the future, because one injury in the top five and suddenly you drop a few places. For perspective, Rugby's 8th runner was 108th place. That's huge for long-term development.
Class A Boys
The Class A Boys race was the Bismarck Century show. Senior Evan Sayler ran 15:42 to win by more than 20 seconds, while as a team they won the title with 60 points. The team race wasn't as big of a victory as the individual race, however, as Williston was right behind them with a score of 64 points. It was also BC's second consecutive state championship.
I'm not going to spend much time talking about teams and numbers in the Class A race, because for many years the number of teams and runners hasn't changed all that much. In my senior year of high school (2010), there were 160 athletes and 18 teams. This year there was 175 athletes and 19 teams. The main reason for this is that the Class A schools have stayed constant, and most of them bring the full 10-person roster every year. I mean, this year the teams averaged 9.2 runners/team, and only a few teams didn't meet the 10-person threshold. So, numbers aren't much of a worry in Class A.
Now for some analysis of the actual race. First off, let's look at how well-matched the top two teams, Bismarck Century and Williston, were in the results. Like I did in the article for the girls, I'm going to compare the place finishes of each team's top 6 runners to show how close four points actually is at a big meet. The last row will be the total time (in seconds) difference between the BC and Williston runners.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th
Bismarck Century 1 5 11 13 30 (34)
Williston 4 7 14 18 21 (35)
Time Difference 33 sec 2 sec 6 sec 9 sec -11 sec 1 sec
As you can see, these two teams were very close at almost every position. Williston lost points at runners 1, 2, 3 and 4, but made up 9 points on the 5th runner. Basically, Williston's 2, 3 and 4 runners could have each run 5-10 seconds faster and the state champion would have been different. Like I've said, those middle runners make all the difference in big meets.
Here's the grade levels of the top 40 in the men's A race:
Seniors- 13
Juniors- 10
Sophomores- 8
Freshmen- 7
8th Grade- 1
7th Grade- 1
As opposed to other races we have seen this year, this one was very top-heavy. Usually boy's races have more upperclassmen at the top compared to girl's, and certainly next year's list will look similar. Also, if anybody can tell me how Williston always has fast 7th and 8th graders at state, I'd love to know.
Now for the predictions. Here's how last year's predictions panned out this year:
2017 Predictions 2017 Actual
1.) Bismarck Century (52) 1.) Bismarck Century (60)
2.) Bismarck Legacy (87) 2.) Williston (64)
3.) Bismarck High (113) 3.) Bismarck Legacy (85)
4.) Grand Forks Red River (161) 4.) Bismarck High (126)
5.) Fargo Davies (166) 5.) Fargo North (177)
Here we can see that the predicted top three teams all were fairly close to their predicted point totals. However, Williston moved up a lot, and Fargo North snuck into the top five. It's also worth noting that the top 4 teams this year were all from the west half of the state.
Here's next year's predictions when seniors are removed and the meet is re-scored.
2017 Actual 2018 Predictions
1.) Bismarck Century (60) 1.) Williston (46)
2.) Williston (64) 2.) Bismarck Legacy (75)
3.) Bismarck Legacy (85) 3.) Bismarck Century (93)
4.) Bismarck High (126) 4.) Fargo North (126)
5.) Fargo North (177) 5.) Bismarck High (182)
6.) Fargo Davies (189)
Two short notes on this:
1.) Last year in predictions, I took out all seniors and juniors, and then only scored 4 runners. Williston had 36 points, and the next closest was 72. We are likely about to see a few years of orange dominance. Not only is Williston predicted to win handily next year, but they are YOUNG. In the re-scored list for next year (2018), Williston has 7 runners in before every other team in the state- besides Bismarck Legacy- has 5. Here's the current (2017) grades of those top seven next year:
-Sophomore
-Freshman
-Sophomore
-7th Grade
-Junior
-Sophomore
-Sophomore(this 7th runner is predicted at 26th place next year)
So, basically we can see them easily winning state at least the next two year. Somehow this town puts together a strong team every single year.
2.) WDA dominance will likely continue with 4 teams in the top 6 next year.
Last, but certainly not least, the list of how strong each division is. The next list is showing the average of the top ten times in each division each year, followed by the percent difference. This shows the relative strength of each division each year.
Based on the data, it seems as if Class B as a whole is getting stronger over the last few years, but one must take into account that years 2010-2013 were the Jake Leingang/Bismarck obliteration years that are certainly outliers. I must say, though, that only a 20 second average difference between the two divisions says a lot about the strength of the top Class B runners right now. Don't sleep on them, college coaches!
2017- 293 runners, 45 teams
*Note that in the chart above, 1 on the x-axis corresponds to 2004, and 14 corresponds to 2017.
This chart makes it clear that since 2011, the number of athletes in this race has steadily increased every year. This is leading to discussions of what to do with increasing numbers (a more in-depth discussion can be found on the girl's analysis). Basically, this growth at the state meet is unsustainable. At this pace, we can expect 350 runners by roughly 2023, not too far away. Very, very few courses in the state can support numbers like that. So, a solution needs to be found.
Next we'll look at the state meet predictions for next year. The methodology is simple: remove all the seniors from the state race and re-score it. This will give you a general idea of team depth beyond what are normally the fastest runners on each team (seniors). Of course, this can't account for those runners that had off races, and it can't account for massive improvements from year-year by younger athletes. Here's what last year's predictions looked like versus what actually happened this year:
2017 Predictions 2017 Actual
1.) New Town (21) 1.) New Town (29)
2.) Rugby (109) 2.) Hillsboro/CV (123)
3.) Beulah/Hazen (153) 3.) Hatton/Thompson/Northwood (159)
4.) Hillsboro/Central Valley (157) 4.) Rubgy (174)
5.) Bowman County (213) 5.) Bowman County (211)
It looks like New Town and Bowman County followed in last year's footsteps almost exactly, but overall the top five was different. H/N/T snuck into the top five. Rugby and Beulah/Hazen both were lower, and Hillsboro/CV was higher, even though the overall score wasn't much different. Before re-scoring this year's meet: here's a brief overview of grades of all the athletes in the top 40:
Seniors- 7
Juniors- 11
Sophomores- 12
Freshmen- 8
8th Grade- 2
7th Grade- 0
Compared to last year, the state is very heavy in the middle-high school range, but rather low on seniors at the top. This suggests a pretty strong Class B for at least the next two years. In fact, there were only two seniors in the top ten, and none in the top three.
Here's what next year's state meet would look like if we take out all seniors and re-score the meet:
2017 Actual: 2018 Predictions:
1.) New Town (29) 1.) New Town (67)
2.) Hillsboro/CV (123) 2.) H/CV (122)
3.) H/N/T (159) 3.) Rugby (137)
4.) Rugby (174) 4.) Bowman Co. (204)
5.) Bowman Co. (211) 5.) Carrington (307)
A few things to take note of in this year's results that show on next year's predictions:
1.) The reason why the scores seem to be higher overall is because there are 25 teams represented in the first 50 places at state (after seniors removed). The fact that most teams had their second runner coming in around places 40-60 is really going to drive scores up.
2.) There were about 6 teams all having their runners 1-5 finish in the same general area, and this created a massive log jam immediately after the top five. See for yourself:
6th: H/N/T (341)
7th: Beulah/Hazen (349)
8th: Griggs Co. Central (352)
9th: Pembina Co. North (357)
10th: Four Winds/Minnewauken (378)
What this says is simple: I'm not gonna give any athletes or coaches training advice, but all you need is your 4-5 runners putting in a tough summer of work and dropping a decent chunk of time on their 5k, moving up 30-40 places in the middle of the pack, and suddenly you have a top five team. 3-5 runners are what carry teams at big meets like state, and having a low stick helps, but not as much.
3.) New Town. Not only would 67 points be their highest total in many years, but what's more important is that their fifth runner comes in at 38th place. Their 6th runner comes in at 141st place. Additionally, Hillsboro's fifth runner comes in at 43rd place, but their 6th runner is 159th. That doesn't bode well for next year or the future, because one injury in the top five and suddenly you drop a few places. For perspective, Rugby's 8th runner was 108th place. That's huge for long-term development.
Class A Boys
The Class A Boys race was the Bismarck Century show. Senior Evan Sayler ran 15:42 to win by more than 20 seconds, while as a team they won the title with 60 points. The team race wasn't as big of a victory as the individual race, however, as Williston was right behind them with a score of 64 points. It was also BC's second consecutive state championship.
I'm not going to spend much time talking about teams and numbers in the Class A race, because for many years the number of teams and runners hasn't changed all that much. In my senior year of high school (2010), there were 160 athletes and 18 teams. This year there was 175 athletes and 19 teams. The main reason for this is that the Class A schools have stayed constant, and most of them bring the full 10-person roster every year. I mean, this year the teams averaged 9.2 runners/team, and only a few teams didn't meet the 10-person threshold. So, numbers aren't much of a worry in Class A.
Now for some analysis of the actual race. First off, let's look at how well-matched the top two teams, Bismarck Century and Williston, were in the results. Like I did in the article for the girls, I'm going to compare the place finishes of each team's top 6 runners to show how close four points actually is at a big meet. The last row will be the total time (in seconds) difference between the BC and Williston runners.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th
Bismarck Century 1 5 11 13 30 (34)
Williston 4 7 14 18 21 (35)
Time Difference 33 sec 2 sec 6 sec 9 sec -11 sec 1 sec
As you can see, these two teams were very close at almost every position. Williston lost points at runners 1, 2, 3 and 4, but made up 9 points on the 5th runner. Basically, Williston's 2, 3 and 4 runners could have each run 5-10 seconds faster and the state champion would have been different. Like I've said, those middle runners make all the difference in big meets.
Here's the grade levels of the top 40 in the men's A race:
Seniors- 13
Juniors- 10
Sophomores- 8
Freshmen- 7
8th Grade- 1
7th Grade- 1
As opposed to other races we have seen this year, this one was very top-heavy. Usually boy's races have more upperclassmen at the top compared to girl's, and certainly next year's list will look similar. Also, if anybody can tell me how Williston always has fast 7th and 8th graders at state, I'd love to know.
Now for the predictions. Here's how last year's predictions panned out this year:
2017 Predictions 2017 Actual
1.) Bismarck Century (52) 1.) Bismarck Century (60)
2.) Bismarck Legacy (87) 2.) Williston (64)
3.) Bismarck High (113) 3.) Bismarck Legacy (85)
4.) Grand Forks Red River (161) 4.) Bismarck High (126)
5.) Fargo Davies (166) 5.) Fargo North (177)
Here we can see that the predicted top three teams all were fairly close to their predicted point totals. However, Williston moved up a lot, and Fargo North snuck into the top five. It's also worth noting that the top 4 teams this year were all from the west half of the state.
Here's next year's predictions when seniors are removed and the meet is re-scored.
2017 Actual 2018 Predictions
1.) Bismarck Century (60) 1.) Williston (46)
2.) Williston (64) 2.) Bismarck Legacy (75)
3.) Bismarck Legacy (85) 3.) Bismarck Century (93)
4.) Bismarck High (126) 4.) Fargo North (126)
5.) Fargo North (177) 5.) Bismarck High (182)
6.) Fargo Davies (189)
Two short notes on this:
1.) Last year in predictions, I took out all seniors and juniors, and then only scored 4 runners. Williston had 36 points, and the next closest was 72. We are likely about to see a few years of orange dominance. Not only is Williston predicted to win handily next year, but they are YOUNG. In the re-scored list for next year (2018), Williston has 7 runners in before every other team in the state- besides Bismarck Legacy- has 5. Here's the current (2017) grades of those top seven next year:
-Sophomore
-Freshman
-Sophomore
-7th Grade
-Junior
-Sophomore
-Sophomore(this 7th runner is predicted at 26th place next year)
So, basically we can see them easily winning state at least the next two year. Somehow this town puts together a strong team every single year.
2.) WDA dominance will likely continue with 4 teams in the top 6 next year.
Last, but certainly not least, the list of how strong each division is. The next list is showing the average of the top ten times in each division each year, followed by the percent difference. This shows the relative strength of each division each year.
Year Class A Class B % Difference
2017 16:16.8 16:36.7 2.0%
2017 16:16.8 16:36.7 2.0%
2016 16:03.6 16:27.4 2.5%
2015 16:15.8 16:58.0 4.3%
2014 16:15.1 16:53.0 3.9%
2013 16:16.7 17:05.7 5.0%
2012 16:07.8 17:19.4 7.4%
2011 15:59.0 17:13.3 7.7%
2010 16:52.1 17:34.4 4.2%
2009 16:12.1 17:06.3 5.6%
2007 16:10.6 16:38.7 2.9%
2006 16:29.5 17:09.1 4.0%
2005 17:06.5 17:23.6 1.7%
2004 16:53.0 17:49.5 5.6%
2003 16:19.0 17:10.0 5.2% (overall avg. 4.4%)Based on the data, it seems as if Class B as a whole is getting stronger over the last few years, but one must take into account that years 2010-2013 were the Jake Leingang/Bismarck obliteration years that are certainly outliers. I must say, though, that only a 20 second average difference between the two divisions says a lot about the strength of the top Class B runners right now. Don't sleep on them, college coaches!
