(*It might be easier to view some of the data here if you flip your phone sideways or use a computer*)
State cross country this year was in Valley City, ND on a stunningly beautiful late fall day. The temperature in the morning was a balmy 15 degrees, working it's way up into the low 40s during the day. The sun was shining and the wind was negligent. The course was pretty flat with relatively few tight turns. The ground was dry and the grass manicured. Basically, perfect conditions for fast cross country. Through a strange happenstance that I have never understood, the meet was delayed due to the thick morning frost.
Now, I've experienced meets pushed back due to frost before (in college specifically), but I've never understood it. I heard word that the golf course manager was worried about the facility and pushed for the meet to start later. In 2009 I raced on this course for State XC and it was raining and dreary most of the day. By the time the Class B Boys raced (the last of the 4 races), the course was a mudpit. Times were slow and people were slipping everywhere. I fail to see how racing on a frost-covered course can do more damage than running in mud, but maybe I just don't understand how things work.
Either way, there were some exciting races taking place throughout the day. Whether it was the individual race in the B Boys or the team race in the A girls, the great conditions did not disappoint. A little overview of the champions:
Class A Boys:
Individual Champion: Evan Sayler, Senior, Bismarck Century, 15:42 (won by 22 seconds)
Team Champion: Bismarck Century, 60 points (4 ahead of 2nd place Williston)
Class B Boys:
Individual Champion: Jaiven Hale, Junior, New Town, 16:02 (won by 16 seconds)
Team Champion: New Town, 29 points (93 points ahead of 2nd place Hillsboro/Central Valley)
Class A Girls:
Individual Champion: Kelby Rinas, Sophomore, Mandan, 18:15 (won by 10 seconds)
Team Champion: Fargo Davies, 88 points (won in a tie-break with Grand Forks Central, and 1 point ahead of 3rd place Bismarck Century)
Class B Girls:
Individual Champion: Reagan Baesler, Hillsboro/Central Valley, 18:27 (won by 32 seconds)
Team Champion: Hillsboro/Central Valley, 96 points (12 ahead of 2nd place Watford City)
-------------------------------------------------------------
Last year's analysis can be found here: 2016 Analysis
I'll take a brief look at each race individually now.
Class B Girls:
The big story of this race was the dominating performance of Reagan Baesler. This was her second state championship in a row (it's worth noting that Kayla Ogle was 2nd for the 2nd year in a row) and this was by more than 30 seconds. It was clear during the race that she had this locked up. She was near the front immediately after the start, moved into the front, and started growing the gap throughout the race. Even within the third mile she looked better than most girls quite a ways behind her. Her team, Hillsboro/Central Valley won their 7th consecutive state title, an impressive feat to be sure.
This year there were 260 athletes competing for 46 different teams. Last year there were 223 athletes from 47 teams. However some schools added co-ops, so that may explain how the participation numbers go up while team numbers go down.
| Year | Runners | Teams |
| 2004 | 144 | 25 |
| 2005 | 146 | 27 |
| 2006 | 153 | 28 |
| 2007 | 150 | 29 |
| 2008 | 179 | 30 |
| 2009 | 177 | 35 |
| 2010 | 172 | 41 |
| 2011 | 198 | 38 |
| 2012 | 196 | 37 |
| 2013 | 209 | 37 |
| 2014 | 208 | 39 |
| 2015 | 234 | 45 |
| 2016 | 223 | 47 |
| 2017 | 260 | 46 |
As you can see from the chart, the number of athletes has been exploding in recent years. This comes as no surprise, being that cross country is the best sport out there, but in reality Class B is facing some tough decisions coming up. I wasn't at the coaches meeting this year, but I did hear that high participation numbers again came up as a problems. Simply put, there are few courses in the state that can accommodate 260 runners. Many B schools host their meets on 9-hole golf courses or area parks, and many A schools do much the same, with perhaps an 18-hole golf course. None of these places are set up to handle that kind of load. North Dakota is unique in that the state meet bounces location from year to year and that every school, no matter what division, can bring 10 runners to compete at the state meet. In most states, this would be disastrous because there would be more than 500 kids on the start line for each race, but we don't have enough people to worry about that.
Until now. The solutions being presented each have downs and ups. Here's an example of a few:
1.) Make a permanent site for state cross country. This appeals to Jamestown specifically because they want it every year and have a decently wide course. It would add stability to the schedule and provide quite a boost to the local economy. However, having different locations every year is a lot of fun and the Jamestown course isn't all that great for spectators and coaches. At state last year we were instructed that we could not go back into the woods that the kids run through, which is also where mile marker 1 is located. As a coach, I did not like the course. As a spectator, I wouldn't either. As a state high school activities association, I would love it.
2.) Limit state meet entries. Minnesota limits to 7 varsity runners at most meets, especially districts, sections, and state. B schools like Watford City, Rugby, Beulah/Hazen would be limited in how many athletes they could have competing. A quick check of this year shows that 31 girls would not have competed, bringing participation down to 229. As numbers keep rising and the number of teams with between 3-7 runners increases, I don't think this is a good long-term strategy.
3.) 2 start lines at the state meet. Yes, this was actually a suggestion. I won't even write about it because it's comical to have something like this at a STATE MEET.
Me personally, I think a good short-term strategy would be move some of the bigger B schools up to A, which should even things out, and long term look at going towards a 3-class system in most of the sports in the state.
Last thing about this issue: 100th place in the B girls race was almost 5 MINUTES behind the leader. The absurdity of that means that the race is strung out quite a bit, and as long as the first half/full mile of the course is wide, the girls race has room to race on many different courses.
Now we'll look at a hypothetical state meet next year. Last year I took all the seniors out of the state meet and re-scored it. Here's how it compared with what actually happened this year:
Predicted Actual
H/CV 103 H/CV 96
Rubgy 118 Watford City 108
Bowman County 196 Rugby 148
So. Mclean 262 New Town 261
Watford City 273 H/N/T 286
So, the teams were a little off, but the scores were pretty close. Moral of the story right now: score under 100 points if you want to win, under 200 points to podium, and under 300 for a shot at top 5.
Here's a breakdown of the top 40 by grade of this year's B girls race:
Seniors- 4
Juniors- 9
Sophomores- 9
Freshmen- 8
8th Grade- 5
7th Grade- 5
This mirrors last year almost exactly.
Here's how the scoring would be affected by removing the seniors from the overall results:
2017: 2018 (predicted):
H/CV 96 Watford 115*
Watford 108 H/CV 135
Rugby 148 Rugby 166
New Town 261 New Town 230
H/N/T 286 H/N/T 253
What can we take from this? Well, first off the top five probably isn't going to change much. On next year's predictions, the sixth place team would be Stanley, just about 80 points back of 5th place. Second thing to note is that Watford City has low sticks. In running lingo, this means they have girls up front getting some low scores. In fact, Watford's first 4 girls come in with a score of 35 points. Their fifth runner is positioned at 60th, and their 6th at 62. If their girls up front can stay there, and their 5/6 runners move up, they will win next year, ending Hillsboro/Central Valley's reign atop the State B Girls.
*I've heard the Watford City is going Class A next year, and if that's true, then it'll be Hillsboro/Central Valley and Rugby battling for top honors.
Class A Girls:
The big story in this race was the incredibly close team finish.There were 3 teams within one point of the state championship. Fargo Davies and Grand Forks Central tied with 88 points, while Bismarck Century was one point back with 89 points. Davies won the tiebreaker because officials look at whichever team had their 6th runner come in 1st. It's also worth noting that Bismarck High was 4th with 99 points, putting 4 teams within 11 points of the championship. I mean, 11 points is every girl on your team moving up or down 2 or 3 positions in a race with hundreds of runners. It doesn't get much closer than that! Let's look at how each team fared with their top five (also included is each team's 1-5 spread, which is the difference in times between their 1st runner and 5th. Strong teams at big meets usually have small spreads):
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th (6th) 1-5 Spread
Davies 11 12 18 21 26 (28) 0:57
GFC 6 8 9 23 42 (45) 1:40
BC 4 5 17 19 34 (68) 1:34
BHS 2 15 19 27 36 (38) 1:47
It's worth noting that the 1-7 spread for Davies was actually 1:10, still less than any other team's 1-5.
Looking at this chart, it becomes clear why Davies and Central were so close, but Davies won. GFC had low sticks, with three girls in the top ten. However, their 5 runner didn't come in until 42nd place. Davies, on the other hand, had no girls in the top 10, but had a tight-knit group of girls taking away spots from the other teams. They also won the tiebreak because of having more depth in the 6th and 7th positions. This isn't to suggest that Davies dominated, however, because one girl losing one spot would have given the championship to GFC. It was that close!
I won't take the time to look at participation numbers for Girl's Class A, because even though the total runners jumped about 10 from last year (176 this year), Class A teams usually bring 10 runners to state, and the number of Class A teams hasn't changed much. To get a more accurate picture, one would have to look at something like a conference meet where everybody runs in some sort of race.
Let's analyze the race. Here's a breakdown of the top 40 by grade:
Seniors- 5
Juniors- 5
Sophomores- 11
Freshmen- 10
8th Grade- 7
7th Grade- 2
Just like the Class B race, a very young top 40, but again this mirrors pretty close to last year as well.
Here now is my prediction last year (based upon taking out seniors and re-scoring the meet) versus what actually happened.
Predicted: Actual:
1.) Davies 54 Davies 88
2.) BHS 94 GFC 88
3.) BC 116 BC 89
4.) GFC 139 BHS 99
5.) Minot 152 Minot 149
As you can see, the results again line up pretty well, especially with Minot, Davies, and Bismarck Century. Here now is what the results look like for next year, minus the seniors:
2017: 2018 (predicted):
Davies 88 Davies 80
GFC 88 BC 82
BC 89 BHS 90
BHS 99 GFC 113
Minot 149 Minot 149
Note that the predicted 6th place team is West Fargo with 189 points. What do we make of this? Well, it looks like the top 5 will jostle around a little, but fundamentally not change. The WDA will still be completely dominant, and Davies will have another close title run.
The last thing I want to look at is the difference in the average of the top ten times in each race at state. Naturally, the A Girls are usually faster in the top ten, but by how much? Here's the chart (note that this is only year 2 of 5k race distances, before that they were 4k):
Year Class A Class B % Difference
2017 18:37.8 19:15.4 3.4%
2016 18:14.8 19:10.4 5.1%
2015 14:42.2 15:04.6 2.5%
2014 14:37.7 15:26.8 5.6%
2013 14:48.7 15:30.3 4.7%
2012 15:11.7 15:54.9 4.7%
2011 14:39.8 15:25.9 5.2%
2010 15:12.6 15:50.7 4.2%
2009 15:06.0 15:41.3 3.9%
2008 15:16.1 16:06.3 5.5%
2007 14:57.1 15:32.3 3.9%
2006 14:59.4 15:42.8 4.8%
2005 15:54.1 16:11.6 1.8%
2004 15:27.4 15:34.5 0.8%
2003 15:12.2 15:21.8 1.1% (overall avg 3.8%)
In conclusion, this year's times were a bit slower than last year, but fell in line with historical averages. I made a note last year that in the early 2000s there were some Class B girls from Leeds/Maddock absolutely shredding every race they ran, and could easily compete with the best in Class A, thus the lower percents.
So there's the Class A and B Girl's Analysis! I'll have the one for the Boys up sometime- these take awhile! Happy running everyone!
No comments:
Post a Comment